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This week we'll be enclosing the link to the Go Fund Me Page for Corey Lanerie's family, after the sudden passing of his wife, Shantel, the other day. They had an 11 year old daughter, and while many of you were extremely generous in donating to the National Breast Cancer Foundation in her honor, if you have a winner or two this week, I recommend this heartily. He is truly one of the nicest guys in the sport.

https://www.gofundme.com/lanerie-family-support

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont - 6/30

 

 Race 1

1.Sayhellotomylilfrn

2.Plebe

3.The Postmaster

We won't be going any deeper than these three for our rolling action in the day's opener... #4 SAYHELLOTOMYLILFRN was as disappointing as a bad Cuban cigar in the career starter, finishing up the track over at The Big A, but City Zips do well in turf dashes, and this one has a maturity edge over the entire field ( which means a bit when dealing with babies ). May perk up a bit. #8 PLEBE ( which is a freshman in a military academy...sired by 'Midshipman--ya get it? ) has excellent turf breeding & draws well. Live shot with the outside slot. #6 THE POSTMASTER had a slightly troubled trip in the local debut a bit over a month ago ( at 30-1 ), and while a "must use", keep in mind that the turf bloodlines ain't spectacular, so tread lightly.  OFF TURF: 3(MTO)-2-8-1-4

 

      Race 2

1.Dancing Breeze

2.Sweet Sting

3.La Moneda

There are three solid DRF Formulator stats in play for the second half of the traditional Daily Double. #8 DANCING BREEZE: Motion is a perfect 4 for 4 with locally based allowance turf stayers in the 108-324 day zip code ( $4, $9, $12 & $9 ). Back to back bullets on the worktab, and Mikey Smith gets the call. #4 SWEET STING: Double J is a crisp 4 fer 6 with those of this ilk in the 46-92 day range ( $5.31 ROI ). Miss won her only try from off the bench. #5 LA MONEDA: Morley ( 12% day to day ) is 6:3-1-1-1 w/3rd off the layoff turf routers coming in off a win at < 13-1.  OFF TURF: 2-3-4-6-1

 

Race 3

1.Fleet Irish

2.Kenyan

3.Maymo

#4 FLEET IRISH was put up for sale for the first time on April 11th, and the result was abysmal. Weaver then sent this one to the shelf, and is now entered for less than 1/3rd of the last price ( uh oh ), but don't fret, my pet...Over the last 1,826 days, aforementioned 15% conditioner nearly triples that rate ( 10 for 24 ) with mid level dirt horsies at 8-1 or lower ( $3.20 ROI ). 3:1-2-0 mark at Elmont aids the cause as well. #6 KENYAN ( one half of the uncoupled Sciacca entry ) has been a part of the super in nine straight and lost by only a length in a nearly identical spot on the first of the month. #5 MAYMO has never been entered this cheaply & is 2-3 over this strip.

 

      Race 4

1.Thais ( Fr )

2.In The Lee

3.Pas de Soucis ( Ire )

#4 THAIS (FR) has hit the board in all four starts since arriving in the States & getting the wonder drug, and did some nice work back home as well. Sheds three pounds off a win ( which we always like ), and Brown is 4 fer 8 with second off the break ungraded turfers going long right here at 19-1 or lower ( won last ). The ROI for that sampling is more than $3.20, and once again--we like Mike. #6 IN THE LEE has been alternating wins & losses since starting things out a year ago to the day, but even the losses haven't been that bad. Was a game runner up beneath Franco two starts back, and we like that she can either send or rate. #7 PAS DE SOUCIS (IRE) ( "No problem" ) had a small problem when going a touch wide & getting snagged late in the game 37 days back, but got the job done in her only other 2nd off the break try.  OFF TURF: 3-2-4-5-6

 

      Race 5

1.Our Circle of Love

2.Souper Echo

3.Wisconsin Night

#3 OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE down the lane. #4 SOUPER ECHO may look a bit light from a sped figure perspective, but those 's were earned as a 2YO, and there's obviously been some maturity since then. We like the grittiness shown thus far. #1 WISCONSIN NIGHT had a bit of a difficult onset to the career opener when breaking a tad slow before dueling down on the inside. Grey gal didn't completely spit the bit in besting half the field that day & should be able to handle the rail after that debut.

 

Race 6

1.Nantucket Red

2.Fashion Week

3.Coexistence

#5 NANTUCKET RED improved by about 10% from the first start to the second, and has blinkers added while catching firm ground for just the second time. Expecting a big effort this afternoon. #6 FASHION WEEK is a bit of a grinder by nature & is 3rd off the bench today. Should come along for a share. #2 COEXISTENCE took the overland when missing by just a sliver in the most recent, but the Tommy for this surface is a bit low, so be careful with this one.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-6-3

 

Race 7 

1.News Anchor

2.Aqua Bel Sar

3.D'yer M'aker

#4 NEWS ANCHOR faded late in the game when facing winners for the first time, but let's not judge too harshly, as that was his first start in more than half a year, and maybe Shug didn't have this one fully cranked up that day. Stone takes over today, and we'll give this one a tepid nod of the head. #8 AQUA BEL  SAR has been ambitiously spotted in three of his last four, but if you draw some lines through those events, then this one's resume' doesn't look too bad, does it? Turf breeding is a bit of a question mark, but paternal grandsire finished second in the lone try over the green, and we'll toss in at a price. #5 D'YER M'AKER rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 5-6-4-1-3

 

 Race 8

1.Indy Union

2.My Miss Lilly

3.Mo Smart

Mother Goose Stakes on tap here, and for a touch of history on this event ( won a record six times by Johnny V. ) go right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mother_Goose_Stakes . #1 INDY UNION won by open lengths the only time she went two turns to one ( noting that her triad of 1X tries yielded Beyers of 56-63-77...ALL as a two year old ) & rallied nicely for second in his only pairing with Junior. Could shock today in the third off the L/O try. #7 MY MISS LILLY flopped in the Kentucky Oaks, but is another one who was climbing the speed figure ladder in all the dashes, and positive works a nice sign for a closer. There's an old adage to never eliminate an undefeated runner at more than 3-1, and that's why we'll leave the #3 MO SMART in the mix.   NOTE: AS OF 12:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 9

1.Reflected Star

2.Red Rifle

3.Nile Prince

#8 REFLECTED STAR won in a nearly identical spot right here in wire to wire fashion two fortnights ago, and switches to Junior today, who will hopefully cap off the late double today for us. Mott ( 15% on the norm ) is a saucy 5 for 8 with locally based mid level turf stayers who scored less than 37 days back ( between even money & 3-1 ) & has a $3.96 ROI in that regards. #1A RED RIFLE ( cross entered at Monmouth today, so check the changes ) has a win and a second in three 3rd off the layoff attempts, & finished second in his only "dirt to turf/sprint to route" try; could perk up here. #3 NILE PRINCE has amassed a 3 for 11 mark on the gramma, and why not include at 12-1.  OFF TURF: 1-3-2-5-10

  


Belmont          ( Current )  71-397   ( $632.90 )    Beatable Favorites   8-31  ( 25.8% )   Favorites Win %: 139-397  ( 35.0% )( As of Sat. morning)

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Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017