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This week we'll be enclosing the link to the Go Fund Me Page for Corey Lanerie's family, after the sudden passing of his wife, Shantel, the other day. They had an 11 year old daughter, and while many of you were extremely generous in donating to the National Breast Cancer Foundation in her honor, if you have a winner or two this week, I recommend this heartily. He is truly one of the nicest guys in the sport.

https://www.gofundme.com/lanerie-family-support

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #1 Big Expense


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont - 6/29

 

 Race 1

1.Caralicious

2.All Right With Me

3.Ok Honey

#6 CARALICIOUS begins her working life today, and after a couple of pedestrian morning moves, Mitch tightened the screws a bit with a 48 4/5th's workout from the gate on the training track nine days ago, and as a matter of fact, Friedman won with his only firster on the sod at this level ( $46 ). Junior sees fit to ride. #4 ALL RIGHT WITH ME showed a bit of early hoof from a disadvantageous post in the opener, and now gets the wonder drug for the As-Man, who's 2 for 4 when doing that to his second time starters ( 60 days or less ) with the winners paying $15 & $9 ( 1-1 on turf ). #3 OK HONEY as good as any for the 10% share.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-6-5

 

      Race 2

1.Source Control

2.No Regrets

3.Mohican

These three and no more for all our rolling action... #1 SOURCE CONTROL has gone 1-1-1 in his last troika of turf outings, has hit the board in 3 of 4 at the trip, and lone win cane beneath Irad; sensible selection. #5 NO REGRETS has put up decent figaros in his last three starts & has the hood added by Albertrani today. Four runners from that deal went 2-0-2 in their next calls to the post, with an average Beyer improvement of 3.8 points. #3 MOHICAN is wheeled right back after six days off, and despite the disappointments over the last two, could perk up with today's cutback.  OFF TURF: 5-8(MTO)-6-1-3

 

Race 3

1.Admiral Blue

2.Papa Shot

3.Doyouknowsomething

#3 ADMIRAL BLUE has been ambitiously spotted in the last two ( never really a turfer, and he's yet to hit the board in a stakes event ), but chestnut runner scored in the outing just prior to those flops, and rates the slightest of edges in a wide open deal. #2 PAPA SHOT is a tremendous 8:3-3-1 at this distance ( 19:4-1-7 otherwise ) and finished 2nd in the lone pairing with Johnny nearly a year to the day ago. This one is available for purchase for the first time in nearly two calendars, so expect him to be ready to go. #4 DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING went all the way in last & sheds a couple'a pounds off that effort ( which we dig ). Junior lands elsewhere, but Franco a more than capable substitute.

 

      Race 4

1.Mama Mary

2.Lulu's Pom Pom

3.Carrera Cat

#4 MAMA MARY was an honest enough third in the local debut on 6/8, and gets a nice upgrade in the jockey area this afternoon. Should move forward a bit. #5 LULU'S POM POM has been befallen by a few layoff lines, but it's hard to begrudge her the overall body of work, and although she gives the appearance of a chronic money burner, we'd be remiss in excluding. #1 CARRERA CAT showed a little bit of early hoof in the comebacker ( when getting blinkers for the first time ), and we like that there;s no scary drop & that Maragh sticks around. You may be able to get a decent price w/this one.  OFF TURF: 4-5-8-1-7

 

      Race 5

1.Stapleton

2.Divine Interventio

3.Fillet of Sole

#6 STAPLETON makes his debut in The Big Apple today, and this 4 YO gelding has an honest overall body of work, as well as being backed by a decent DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 260 weeks, Wismer is 3 fer 7 with mid level dirt dashers returning in less than 80 days at 16-1 or under ( $7, $12 & $25 ). #3 DEVINE INTERVENTIO has hit the board in all four Elmont outings, has fared well at the dx., and the newly shorn Asmussen is 4-10 with local runners of this caliber who missed the board < 25 days ago ( $6, $3 & $4 ). #4 FILLET OF SOLE is confidently hiked up in class in the first start off the claim, and why not, as Servis is a "miraculous" 14 for 27 at the stand. This one has been gelded since the last, and discount this barn at your own peril.

Race 6

1.Posse's Paradise

2.Wild With Style

3.Misty Forest

#9 POSSE'S PARADISE posted adjusted speed figures of 50.1 & 47.3  over fast tracks ( against stiffer competition ) last year, and as you know, we look anywhere in a maiden's running lines for positive news, as they're maidens for a reason, ya know. The return to action left a lot to be desired, but let's examine what happened just prior to that, shall we? If you notice, this grey gal was working out every week in April ( rather slowly ) before disappearing for a month & returning with another pedestrian move. Quick may have said "Let's give this one a workout within a race." before entering her in an identical spot 27 days ago, where she was engaged early on before folding the tent. A half month later there was a bullet 47 move over this strip, and where the hell did that come from? Well, what it WAS, was .19 faster than the second fastest work & .66 quicker than the third quickest move. We like the draw--don't like the favorites--and there's a dearth of speed here, so let's hope this one ( with a maturity advantage over a few others ) can catch a flyer. #5 WILD WITH STYLE is second off the L/O today & is another with an uncharacteristic recent breeze. #2 MISTY FOREST drops for the 3rd straight time & re-adds the hood.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 BIG EXPENSE will be brought over by a conditioner who's 0-10 with maiden claiming dirt stock that were IN the money 20-32 days ago.

 

Race 7 

1.Still There

2.Out of Trouble

3.Vortex Road

#4 STILL THERE has been visually impressive in winning both starts to date, and although the turf breeding leaves a lot to be desired ( 200 Tomlinson ), we're heartened by the fact that ( from a tiny sampling )  Kobiskie is 2 for 4 when trying 2 turns & grass for the first time ( 1-66 days  ) at 18-1 or lower, with mutuels of $15 & $12. Miss is a half to Forever in Love who is 3-12 in turf routes ( 156K ). #2 OUT OF TROUBLE has oodles of speed & came within a couple of ringing up a hat trick last time out. Bay filly has essentially improved over her last septet & is tough to dismiss. #1 VORTEX ROAD is 7:4-3-0 since the fall & won the only time she broke from the pine.  OFF TURF: 4-7-5-6-2

 

 Race 8

1.Fear No Evil

2.Annie Rocks

3.Jumby Bay

#1 FEAR NO EVIL is a fairly steady performer who usually gives a good account of herself, and switches back to Bravo today, for whom she's had a win & a third from as many pairings. Meeeeekest of selections in a wide open affair. #4 ANNIE ROCKS had a bit of a wide sojourn in this race on 6/3 & switches to Stone today, who can pop on the lawn with some prices at times. #6 JUMBY BAY cuts back & has blinks re-affixed by Pletcher. ( You get the feeling we're really not jamming on this feature? )  OFF TURF: 4-1-6-8-5(MTO)

 

 Race 9

1.Shiloh Lane

2.Sport

3.Honey Don't

#3 SHILOH LANE was hiked up in class for the first start off the claim by Sciacca, and despite the honest enough BSF, this one is dropped right back down after beating just one home. From an itsy bitsy, teenie weenie, sampling, 8% conditioner is 2 for 3 when giving his local turfers this kind of class move at 30-1 or less ( $30 & $53 ). #1 SPORT has had many breaks in the action, but is available for purchase for the 1st time here, and had two solid performances over this oval way back when. #4 HONEY DON'T is second off the shelf for Mott & is another who is now in the claiming ranks. Sensible drop, as this one was bred for a mere $5,000.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-5-1A

 


Belmont          ( Current )  69-388   ( $614.50 )    Beatable Favorites   8-31  ( 25.8% )   Favorites Win %: 135-388  ( 34.8% )( As of Friday morning)

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Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017