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This week we'll be enclosing the link to the Go Fund Me Page for Corey Lanerie's family, after the sudden passing of his wife, Shantel, the other day. They had an 11 year old daughter, and while many of you were extremely generous in donating to the National Breast Cancer Foundation in her honor, if you have a winner or two this week, I recommend this heartily. He is truly one of the nicest guys in the sport.

https://www.gofundme.com/lanerie-family-support

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #6 Aussie Ahvee


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont - 6/28

 

 Race 1

1.Ribbonite

2.Asian's Way

3.Jump for Joy

#3 RIBBONITE has improved over her last three calls to the post, culminating with a win versus what we would consider a slightly tougher bunch just eight days ago. All the way. #1 ASIAN'S WAY has been fairly steady from a speed figure perspective in her last troika, but we have her just a hair below the top choice so will leave beneath. #4 JUMP FOR JOY is 3:1-1-1 at Elmont and has also fared well at the trip. Five year old mare making just her 11th start is a logical contendress.  NOTE: AS OF 11:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 2

1.Catania Rose

2.Galway Girl

3.Truly Courageous

What we have on tap here is one of the lowest level races on the grounds, so tread real lightly. #8 CATANIA ROSE posted a lifetime best Beyer in an identical spot a month ago, and when you gloss over the running lines of the others signed on, do you really need more than that? #3 GALWAY GIRL is wheeled right back in six days ( making her fourth start in a month ), and has the blinkers slapped back on today in an effort to shake things up a bit. #5 TRULY COURAGEOUS is second off the layoff & second time turf today while showing a decent gate move up at Oklahoma.  OFF TURF: 2(MTO)-1-7-9(MTO)-3  BEATABLE FAVORITE: I have absolutely NO idea why the #6 AUSSIE AHVEE is 5 to 2 here.  NOTE: AS OF 11:20, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Nisha

2.Your Love

3.Luz Mimi

#2 NISHA has had three mishaps in her career, but they've all occurred on the turf, so obviously we can be forgiving of that. Gal appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and we see a wire job in the works. #1 YOUR LOVE won her only "true" start off a L/O, and has partaken in the exacta in 5 of 6 while winning her only start when breaking from the pine. A must use. #4 LUZ MIMI has a win & four placings from as many "second off the break" attempts, and is 5:2-2-0 locally, as well; comprises second half of the 'Miah entry, as both had to be put in the show in order for the race to go.

 

      Race 4

1.The Chamo

2.Champagne Papi

3.Full of Hope

#6 THE CHAMO split the field versus slightly tougher two fortnights ago, and aside from this one having hit the board in 6 of 7, there's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play. Over the last 260 weeks, Rice is a nice 9-17 with 2nd off the shelf maiden claiming runners of this ilk who crashed the fiesta last time out & are below the 11-1 water mark today ( $2.20+ ROI ). Colt seems solid. #3 CHAMPAGNE PAPI has been breakdancing from a numbers perspective over his last sextet, however we're assuaged a bit by the fact that Adsit ( 12% day to day ) has a 4 for 13 trainer stat in play. With locally based mdclm. dirt dashers who missed the $ 22-44 days back at 30-1 or under, she clicks at that 31% rate, with the winners returning ( $10, $40, $10 & $14 ). #5 FULL OF HOPE finds himself at his lowest level to date and gets a positive jockey change for today's 3rd start off the hiatus.

 

      Race 5

1.English Dancer

2.Hardly Mate

3.Peaches and Spice

#2 ENGLISH DANCER won at the level just below this 53 days back, and two comebackers from that afternoon came back to get their photos taken again ( from four different races ), and the venerable Johnny V. just keeps rolling along. #9 HARDLY MATE has never been entered this cheaply, but is still putting up some decent figaros, and chestnut gal owns a win over the course. #4 PEACHES AND SPICE runs sans eye cups for the first time in more than a year & a half, and has hit the board in 4 of her last six when running with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump.  OFF TURF: 2-3-7-1-8(MTO)

 

Race 6

1.Romantic Babe

2.Sheplaysthefield

3.remarqued

Well, we were willing to call on Velazquez' number in the last, so why not again with the #1 ROMANTIC BABE ? Donk runner closed belatedly to lose by just 3 and a half in her first start off an elongated absence, and the adjusted number from the bow last summer was pretty decent, Of course, the issue is getting back to that pre-layoff figure ( which is never easy ). Timid choice in a tough nut to decipher. #8 SHEPLAYSTHEFIELD hung up a career best speed figure in her only try off the bench, and gets Saez--a rider we've always been fond of. #5 REMARQUED rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 3-4-1-7(MTO)-5

 

Race 7 

1.Queen Laila

2.Clairvoyant Lady

3.Greatreviews

#4 QUEEN LAILA is clearly the class of this allotment, owns a nice collection of numbers, and we like how this one has been claim protected since being snagged out at Arcadia nine weeks ago. Rosario 2 for 6 in limited starts with this outfit; 3 for 4 mark at the dist. kinda hard to ignore. After six straight losses from last March to September, I have difficulty believing that #1 CLAIRVOYANT LADY could foresee a 5:3-2-0 run immediately afterwards, but that's precisely what she's accomplished. We contemplated putting this one on top, but oh, the frigid barn. #5 GREATREVIEWS has been beset by some layoff lines, but it's difficult to argue with one who's scored in three of four---no matter how far apart the races are spread.

 

 Race 8

1.Supercommittee

2.Special Trip

3.Red Curls

#3 SUPERCOMMITTEE had me checking my spell check a few times, but aside from that, this one enters off of two solid performances, and has a tendency to be forwardly placed ( which we always like ). Fourth different pilot in as many calls to the post is Jersey Joe, who's done well for us this meet. #6 SPECIAL TRIP is another one with a nice body of work, but we're always hesitant to speak glowingly of those who's main positive is the drop in class; usually we try to leave those beneath. #4 RED CURLS gets a groovy jockey change today.  OFF TURF: 3-6-7-5-2

 


Belmont          ( Current )  66-380   ( $599.60 )    Beatable Favorites   8-31  ( 25.8% )   Favorites Win %: 132-380  ( 34.7% )( As of Thursday morning)

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Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017