KevinCoxItem


This week we'll be enclosing the link to the Go Fund Me Page for Corey Lanerie's family, after the sudden passing of his wife, Shantel, the other day. They had an 11 year old daughter, and while many of you were extremely generous in donating to the National Breast Cancer Foundation in her honor, if you have a winner or two this week, I recommend this heartily. He is truly one of the nicest guys in the sport.

https://www.gofundme.com/lanerie-family-support

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #1 Bella's Game   Race 9 - #4 Grand Banks 


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont - 6/27

 

 Race 1

1.Connie A

2.City of Dreams

3.Tough Old Bird

#5 CONNIE A has a couple of solid recent Beyers ( both right here ), and Pletcher has won both times he added the hood to his 3rd off the L/O, mid level stock ( $15 & $8 ). This one's best work has come beneath Saez. #6 CITY OF DREAMS hasn't faced the starter since February the first, but has since been transferred over to the Servis barn, who has been performing "miracles" at the stand, winning half of their first 26 races. NURSE !! #3 TOUGH OLD BIRD is a steady sort, but has a penchant for nibbling, as the 21:1-3-6 lifetime mark belies. Seems like a perfect "uncers" candidate to us. 

 

      Race 2

1.Jasmine's Gem

2.Mama's Red Hat

3.Secret Quality

#7 JASMINE'S GEM split the field when vaulting at the start in a nearly identical spot here 32 days ago, and could put forth a better effort with a tidier onset. Slight edge. #4 MAMA'S RED HAT is but four losses away from halving Zippy Chippy's ignonimy, but despite the weakish numbers, the ole grey mare is still cashing some checks, and Fragoso has made some noise with some big prices this meet. #5 SECRET QUALITY closed out the exacta in her career starter at the end of May, and is sensible once again.  OFF TURF: 5-6-8-3-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:42, DUE TO A LATE SCRATH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Lightning Buzz

2.Appealing Henry 

3.More Front 

#3 LIGHTNING BUZZ is an extremely steady sort who's crashed the superfecta in 14 of 15, and the prorated number from the most recent ( over a wet track ) is better than it seems. Like I mentioned a couple of weeks ago, expect Dylan to be going all out leading ip to the Toga meet, so he can secure some better mounts up here ( there ). #4 APPEALING HENRY has a win & a third from as many tries in 3rd off the L/O scenarios, and gets a gigantor jockey change today. #2 MORE FRONT has given up the ghost rather readily of late, and drops for the third straight time today. Now or never time for a runner who's 2-5 at the trip.  NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 4

1.Maddizaskar

2.Gia Michael

3.Sugar Mags

#2 MADDIZASKAR was snagged for today's price about seven weeks ago, and this one is just about as good on turf as dirt, so that's not the issue. What the issue is, is the poor effort from the race claimed. Can you be forgiven of that? If so, you may be rewarded with a decent mutuel here, #5 GIA MICHAEL has handled herself quite well in the initial two turf tries and makes sense right back in the same spot. #6 SUGAR MAGS has done her best work at this trip and may move forward in the 2nd off the L/O try.  OFF TURF: 4(MTO)-1-3-7(MTO)-5 

 

      Race 5

1.Currency Chaos

2.Smart Throb

3.Paddydunalot

#7 CURRENCY CHAOS has posted a couple of solid numeros over her last duet, and this one has a maturity advantage over all in the field but one. Not a big fan of Cancel ( who's doing appreciably better at Monmouth then here ), but we like the draw and will give this one a tepid nod. #3 SMART THROB hung up an adjusted 60.7 the last time she was seen on this strip ( and at this trip ), and if you can see your way clear past the pre/post layoff outings, then this one definitely has a shot. #2 PADDYDUNALOT has decent figs & takes the biggest drop in the game.  OFF TURF: 7-2-5-1-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: George Weaver is anything less than dreamy with second time starters in maiden claiming turf events ( 1-34 ), so we'll side agains the #1 BELLA'S GAMENOTE: AS OF 11:45, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6

1.Odie

2.Lexitonian

3.Bernin' Thru Gold

#5 ODIE ( one half of the uncoupled Ward entry ) had a troubled trip when switching over to the gramma for the first time on 5/25, and is now switched back to the sand, over which he finished a well clear runner up at Keeneland in the spring. W.W. is 3 for 7 when going green to brown with his maiden special weight sprinters off breaks of 65 days or less ( < 16-1 ) with the winners coming back $12, $3 & $9. The top flight breeze ten days ago was .23 seconds faster than the next best horse, and as this is a maiden, that's fairly substantial. #1 LEXITONIAN has a couple of nice moves on the docket for today's overture, ( "Overture, curtain, lights, this is it, tonight's the night !" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-t8PngHgWY  ) & 24% Pletcher is 5-13 ( 38% ) with those fitting ALL this exact criteria ( even to 3-1 w/Johnny V. ). 409 Tommy duly noted. #4 BERNIN' THRU GOLD has a bullet gate move on display for the career starter, and that always merits inclusion.

 

Race 7 

1.Sardonyx

2.Reconsider It

3.Saturdaynightfling

#6 SARDONYX has closed out the exacta in nearly identical spots in her last duet, and honk if you like Donk with maiden claiming turf stayers in the 18-36 day bracket at 4-1 or less ( $3.11 ROI ). #3 RECONSIDER IT moved forward in a big way when switching outfits, and the 3rd & 4th place finishers from that afternoon both came back to win, improving their speed figures by an average of 2.5 points. #4 SATURDAYNIGHTFLING is better on the turf than the dirt and may wake up at a big #.  OFF TURF: 6-7-1-9-3

 

 Race 8

1.Cloontia

2.Gucci Factor

3.Tribecca

#6 CLOONTIA has lost 8 of 9 after winning 4 of 5, so obviously the bloom has come off the rose a bit, but Maker saw enough to plunk down 40 large for this gelding a month & a half back. The good news, is that said conditioner is a whopping 14:9-3-1-1 with new acquisitions in second off the layoff turf deals at 4-1 or lower ( $4.07 ROI ). Five year old won the only two times he came in off this kind of break, and has done his best work at the dx. #7 GUCCI FACTOR won smartly in his second try over the blades in one of the final '17 turf races here in New York, but then disappeared for nearly half'a year before besting a quartet of others in the dirt comebacker. That was obviously a prep for today, but demand a bit of value. We LOVE playing failing dirt sprinters stretching out on the sod, and #2 TRIBECCA is no exception -- especially at 20-1.  OFF TURF: 5-4-3-6-1

 

 Race 9

1.Fancycase

2.Pana Elianne

3.Molly's Lane

There are a couple of decent DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em...  #2 FANCYCASE takes the biggest drop in the game today, and 7% Kelly is a crisp 3 for 5 when doing such to his local turfers at 16-1 or lower ( $9, $12 & $16 ). #8 PANA ELIANNE makes her first try for Ralph Nicks this afternoon, and he owns an exceptional 4 for 5 ledger with maiden claiming turfers just getting under his tutelage, and the prices are healthy enough -- $4, $27, $11 & $17. #1 MOLLY'S LANE didn't display much in the opener, but seven returnees from that race came back to go 7:3-1-1 next time out ( from just four different races ) increasing their #'s by 7.4 pts. in the process. Substantial jockey change in play for today's comebacker.  OFF TURF: 2-1-8-6-9  BEATABLE FAVORITE: I think it's crazy to take 4-5 on an 0-19 runner like the #4 GRAND BANKS here, especially considering she'll be led over by someone who's 0-16 when going turf to dirt & one turn to two.  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Belmont          ( Current )  66-371   ( $599.60 )    Beatable Favorites   7-29  ( 24.1% )   Favorites Win %: 129-371  ( 34.8% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017