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Shantel Lanerie, wife of jockey Corey Lanerie, passed away Friday after a battle with breast cancer. In memory of Shantel & in honor of friend Corey, I will donate 5X my winnings in this column over the next two days to the National Breast Cancer Foundation ( Min. $150 ). I heartily encourage others to join in whole or part. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 10 - #1 Spring Drama


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Belmont - 6/24

 

 Race 1

1.Paranoia

2.Beautiful Buzz

3.Reata's Reward

#3 PARANOIA is a steady Edie, having pataken in the superfecta in six straight, and Barker has given this gal a break to freshen her up a bit. Over the last five years, this 14% barn is 6 for 26 ( 23% ) with locally based runners of this ilk off 15-120 day absences at odds of 9-1 or less ( $2.18 ROI ). One of several speed types sgned on, but draws outside of a couple. #5 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ is second off the shelf today & won the only time she was available for purchase. #2 REATA'S REWARD got the diploma eight days back in all kinds of easy fashion, and is an obvious factor once again. 

 

      Race 2

1.Discreet Image

2.Tiffany's Freud

3.Skyler's Lil Cutie

#7 DISCREET IMAGE has some nice early hoof and from a miniscule sampling. Brown has won with both of his 3rd off the layoff mid level turf dashers who missed the money in last ( $5 & $9 ). Meek selection in a wide open event. #2 TIFFANY'S FREUD's lone win came at this trip & Maragh sticks around despite the recent last place finish. #4 SKYLER'S LIL CUTIE went pillar to post to grab the sheepskin on 5/6, and her numbers are heading in the right direcetion.  OFF TURF: 3-6-8-5-9

 

Race 3

1.Weather Wiz

2.Mythajacul

3.Domain

#4 WEATHER WIZ has the best collection of speed figures in the bunch, but has set a bit of money ablaze, so Double-J sent this one to the bench for a bit to hash things out. Aforementioned conditioner is a tidy 3 for 8 with runners of this ilk off sabbaticals of 43-87 days at 4-1 or less, with all the winners coming back nine clams. #3 MYTHAJACUL is an $80,000 bred animal who went for nearly seven times that at auction, so is obviously well meant. 405 Tommy helps the cause, as does a bullet at Oklahoma. #2 DOMAIN improved by about 10% from his first start to his second, and as Orb progeny aren't known for winning early, this one should only get better with time. 

 

      Race 4

1.Cumbria

2.Spring Folly

3.Purely Lucky

#7 CUMBRIA has put together successive solid efforts, and Jerkens ( calling on his number once again ) is a lively 5-13 with Belmont allowance turf stayers who hit the board in last & are 6-1 or lower today ( $2.60+ ROI ). #3 SPRING FOLLY has a win & a second from as many starts over firm ground, and has done well right here as well. Logical. #1 PURELY LUCKY is 3:0-3-0 when starting from the innermost two slots,so we have no problem tossing into the hopper.  OFF TURF: 3-2-9(MTO)-6-10(MTO)

 

      Race 5

1.Can'tweallgetalong

2.Carmine's Honor

3.Dab

These three and no more fo all our rolling action...  #10 CAN'TWEALLGETALONG has the best last race speed figure, and 10% Contessa is a groovy 6 fer 12 with those fitting this criteria who missed the board 21-41 days back & are 5-1 or under ( positive ROI ). #2 CARMINE'S HONOR ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) has a few decent running lines way back when, and with maidens we always dig deep to get some prices. #3 DAB rounds out the tri.  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6

1.She's the Berries

2.Piedi Bianchi

3.Purrfect Miss

#5 SHE'S THE BERRIES has a nice body of work, a touch of back class, and is 3rd off the L/O today. Meeeeeeeek selection. #6 PIEDI BIANCHI raced in four straight Grade 1's last year, and towers over these if fully cranked up. ( With "if" being the operative word. ) #7 PUURFECT MISS gets a bit of relief today and owns a win & a placing from as many starts over a fast surface. Could spice things up a bit. 

 

Race 7 

1.Goodbye Brockley

2.Mentality

3.Aunt Babe

#10 GOODBYE BROCKLEY is seemingly getting better and better, has won 2 of 3 on the gramma, and Serpe has won with both of his ungraded Belmont turf sprinters. Should get a nice stalking trip from this outside slot. #5 MENTALITY just won on this course & finished third in her only "3rd off the L/O" try. Must incorporate. #3 AUNT BABE tries the green stuff for the 1st time today, and turf breeding sightly better than the dirt. Positive jockey switch in play today, as Lezcano better than his 7% stat belies.  OFF TURF: 3-5-8-6-11(MTO)

 

 Race 8

1.Call Provision

2.Messi ( Ger )

3.Gold Shield

This may be the deepest optional turf route we've ever seen. Yowsa. #2 CALL PROVISION owns that lovely type of "declining" record that we like to see ( 15:6-3-1 ) as it shows he knows where the line is, and Brown is a whopping 10:7-2-0 with runners fitting all this exact criteria off hibernations of 100-200 days ( < 9-2 ) and has a $3.57 ROI . Gelding got the job done in his only third off the L/O try. #10 MESSI (GER) is 5:2-0-2 right here, and owns a 2 for 4 mark outside of stakes company. Would be no surprise. ( Like all the others in here ! ) #8 GOLD SHIELD is 3:2-0-1 in "true" off the layoff tries and should be coming late in the game.  OFF TURF: 5-2-7(MTO)-3-8

 

 Race 9

1.Binkster

2.Hokulea

3.Siggie

#6 BINKSTER ( cross entered yesterday so check the changes ) was heading in the right direction before the floparooskie at the end of May, and is now switched over to the verde for the first time. I don't give a rat's patootie that the breeding is poor -- the turf is like a highway here, and with this one's early zip, and a good "send" rider astride, we'll swing away at big balloons. Not quite sure why #3 HOKULEA is 30-1 in this spot, as the collection of turf #'s, tho not stellar -- are honest enough. 1 for 2 mark at this tricky distance duly noted. #5 SIGGIE is but a sliver of an unblemished record, and is just as well bred for going short as long, and Stone takes over today for Saez who elects to ride a longshot for a bigger barn.  OFF TURF: 5-8-7-13-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:56, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-5-1.

 

 Race 10

1.Giant Zinger

2.Danielle's Pride

3.Chestnut Street

#2 GIANT ZINGER hasn't been seen since last fall, but Mott owns a 3 for 8 mark with those within these parameters off 153-306 day respites at 9-1 or <. ( $10, $6 & $10. Gets in lighter than a few other contenders. #6 DANIELLE'S PRIDE has gone up and down the Beyer ladder since starting things out last Independence Day, but is 3rd off the break today & has the hood added; could perk up a bit at a nice offering. #3 CHESTNUT STREET came along late in the game to lose by only three first time out, and may move up some with that under her girthstrap.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 SPRING DRAMA - McL. is 0-14 with maiden special weight turf routers at Belmont who were IN the money last time out.

 



Belmont          ( Current )  63-361   ( $580.00 )    Beatable Favorites   7-28  ( 25.0% )   Favorites Win %: 125-361  ( 34.6% )( As of Sunday morning )

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Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017