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Shantel Lanerie, wife of jockey Corey Lanerie, passed away Friday after a battle with breast cancer. In memory of Shantel & in honor of friend Corey, I will donate 5X my winnings in this column over the next two days to the National Breast Cancer Foundation ( Min. $150 ). I heartily encourage others to join in whole or part. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #9 Long Eyelashes


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Belmont - 6/23

 

 Race 1

1.Autobahn Express

2.Malarkey

3.Mrs Vargas

#5 AUTOBAHN EXPRESS hasd Lasix 7 front wraps added in last & was a well beaten runner up over at Philadelphia Park, and drops in for a tag today while catching a fast track for the first time. While a bounce is always possible, keep in mind that this a four year old facing younger foes, and there's a jockey upgrade in place today as well. Irad was full of MALARKEY As the #4 had to wait a bit at the quarter pole in last, before merely splitting the field in her turf debut. Switches back to what the pedigree tells us will be her preferred surface, and $80,000 auction purchase is in for half that today. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #1 MRS VARGAS today, as there's a bullet breeze ( over the deep Oklahoma track ) amidst a bevy of ordinary morning moves; 383 Tommy is solid.   NOTE: AS OF 1:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR PICKS TO 6-4-1.

 

      Race 2

1.Mohican

2.Heart in Hand

3.Herecomesyourman

#9 MOHICAN had a troubled trip in the first start off the claim for Diodoro, but hit the board in both other starts here and Dylan is heating up a bit ( like we said he would a short while back ). #6 HEART IN HAND has improved over his last triad, owns a nice ledger here, and Rudy Rod is 3 for 9 with locally based mid level turf stayers at 11-1 or less ( $11, $8 & $8 ). #3 HERECOMESYOURMAN is a bit of a nibblah by nature, but may perk up with the class relief today.  OFF TURF: 4-8-6-5-10(MTO)

 

Race 3

1.Mr. Fixit

2.Felix in Fabula

3.Make the Rules

#6 MR. FIXIT has good speed, owns a 2 for 3 mark when breaking from the outermost two slots, is third off the layoff today, and Terranova owns a tidy 2 fer 3 mark with runners fitting this criteria. Mild choice. #3 FELIX IN FABULA is 2:1-1-0 at the dx., and exits a race where four runners have come back to go 2-0-0-1 in their next outings ( from three different starts ), with all runners having improved their speed figures. #1 MAKE THE RULES went from zero to hero in winning right outta the box here at the end of May and seems ideally spotted for his first try against winners. 

 

      Race 4

1.Lady Suebee

2.Punked ( Ire )

3.Got Stormy

#1 LADY SUEBEE has yet to miss an exacta in five outings ( including a win in her first try on the turf ), and Brown is 4 for 8 with turfers stretching out for the first time who scored 33-65 days ago ( $6, $8, $4 & $5 ). #3 PUNKED (IRE) ( the second half of an uncoupled Brown entry ), sheds six pounds off a win ( which we always dig ) & is third off he shelf this afternoon. #7 GET STORMY has the best last race # and always gives a good account of herself. Must use. OFF TURF: 4-6(MTO)-5(MTO)-3-1

 

      Race 5

1.Celtic Serenade

2.Tiffany's Vision

3.Consubstantial

#5 CELTIC SERENADE is beginning to give the impression of becoming a professional maiden these days, but we're comforted by the fact that Bruce Brown ( 12% day to day ) is 9:3-2-4 ( 100% ITM rate ) with maiden claiming dirt dashers who crashed the party < 69 days ago ( $7, $7 & $11 ). #4 TIFFANY'S VISION comes in today off her best finish to date, and from a pro rated point of view, the figure earned from that day is even better than it appears. #7 CONSUBSTATNTIAL was heading in the right direction until the last two, but with maidens we permit ourselves to look anywhere in their P.P.'s ( as they're winless for a reason, you know ), and the price is right.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We'll leave out the 3-5 favorite #9 LONG EYELASHES, as Rudy is 0-14 with locally based maiden claimers who were IN the money 17-42 days ago. 

 

Race 6

1.Hey Jabber Jaw

2.Big Guy Ian

3.Too Fast to Pass

#8 HEY JABBER JAW is curiously halved in price for the first start off the claim by Jacobsen, and the joint connections stand to barely break even should this one score & get purchased again. Gelding has a sensational "declining" record at the distance of 12:6-2-1, and while this one makes a lot of sense, you may want to take a gander during the warmup. #6 BIG GUY IAN is another entering off a win & a claim, but however, this one is confidently hiked up a few pegs by Arriaga. Best work has come at the trip, & pre-claim pilot returns--which we always dig. #4 TOO FAST TO PASS has lots of zip & likes to finish third in Elmont ( 7:0-0-5 ), so we'll be accommodating & place him there today. 

 

Race 7 

1.Silveratta Road

2.Chiclet's Dream

3.Lovely La La

#12 SILVERATTA ROAD showed diddly poo  ( "You think you know....but you don't...you don't know DIDDLY POO !" ) in the debut, but turf sprinting is Linda's forte', and this one deserves a second chance. ( Isn't it intriguing to see Johnny hop on? ) #10 CHICLET'S DREAM was vastly improved when going from brown to green when last seen at The Big A, and obviously, Chad always has 'em ready for the comebackers. Must incorporate. #6 LOVELY LA LA is the second half of the uncoupled Chad B. entry, and you'd be Silly McGilly to leave out.  OFF TURF: 6-4-12-5-2

 

 Race 8

1.Top of the Page

2.Battle Midway

3.Turco Bravo ( Chi )

#10 TOP OF THE PAGE has crashed the party in 6 of 9 at the distance, and despite taking a class hike today, owns a decent collection of speed figs. #7 BATTLE MIDWAY is dropped 25% in the first start off tha claim for Rudy and has put up some numbers in the past that would lay over these. #2 TURCO BRAVO (CHI) has loads of class, made the triple in 6 of 7 at the dx., and the runner up from last came back to get the job done. 

 

 Race 9

1.Sweet August Lady

2.Piquet

3.Way Smart

#2 SWEET AUGUST LADY... Chad Brown, Castellano, cha, cha , cha... #4 PIQUETT came from out of Siberia to finish second in her first try vs. winners, and this one is second off the L/O for good guy Bobby Ribaudo. Gal has closed out some unders & retains Johnny V  #10 WAY SMART has gotten better with each & every start, and is reunited with the jockey from his last win.  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-1A-3

 

 Race 10

1.Joe's Smokin Gun

2.Appealing Briefs

3.Run For Boston

#5 JOE'S SMOKIN GUN was a daylight clear runner up in this race on the first of the month, and gets a positive jockey switch since then. #12 APPEALING BRIEFS is you're deserving favorite, but that doesn't mean she deserves to win. They've cashed a lot of checks with this one, but lawdy, what a money burner. #4 RUN FOR BOSTON has done okay here & is 3rd off the bench today. Percentage upgrade in the jockey dept.  OFF TURF: 11-2-12-8-9

 


Belmont          ( Current )  63-351   ( $580.00 )    Beatable Favorites   7-27  ( 25.9% )   Favorites Win %: 122-351  ( 34.8% )( As of Saturday morning )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017