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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #8 Theodosia


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Belmont - 6/22

 

 Race 1

1.Hushion

2.La Fuerza

3.Bronx Bomber

#6 HUSHION ( named after the former trainer of this one's sire ) has a couple of decent morning moves for today's career starter, and draws well beneath the last jockey to ever ride his daddy. Mild choice in an open opener. #5 LA FUERZA ( ironically owned by the former owner of The Lumber Guy, mentioned above ) brings in tow a 371 Tomlinson figure for a 24% shedrow who bats 39% with those fitting ALL this exact criteria. #4 BRONX BOMBER ( as my Yankees are having a heck of a yer so far ! ) went for 140K at auction & is another who has been faring well in the A.M.

 

      Race 2

1.Fuel the Bern

2.Discovered

3.Major Force

#1 FUEL THE BERN has steadily improved over his last quartet, ( having partaken in the exacta in three straight ), and won in his only attempt at this trip & over this ( firm ) strip. Appears solid. #2 DISCOVERED has won 2 of 4 and cuts back in distance today; Franco gets the nod. #6 MAJOR FORCE has improved by bounds & leaps since being snagged by Linda, and the most recent tally came with the addition of blinkers on 5/26. There's a hike up the class ladder this afternoon, but we'll include because of the improving form.  OFF TURF: 3-5-7-1-6   NOTE: AS OF 1:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH  THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.We Are Family

2.Restructure

3.Charlonique

#2 WE ARE FAMILY wasn't just the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates theme song ( video by Sister Sledge right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMVe_HcyP9Y ), but is also the proud owner of the highest Beyer in the lot ( 62 ). The hood was added for the recent try, and while a bounce is always possible in the first start off a career best effort ( especially after an equipment or medication change ), we're assuaged by a decent Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 1.826 days, Nevin is 4 for 8 with 3rd off the layoff dirt runners going 2X to 1X at odds of 12-1 or less ( 14-43 days ). The winners returned $4, $8, $13 & $17, & Franco returns. #4 RESTRUCTURE begins her working life today, & is bred nicely for this trip. Needn't be much here. #3 CHARLONIQUE could perk up with the blinkers addition today.  NOTE: AS OF 1:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 4

1.Wicked Trick

2.Big Agenda

3.High Promise

#7 WICKED TRICK got awfully rambunctious in the last ( a prior issue ) before dumping Franco in a tougher spot here on Belmont Eve ( Manny was truly lucky to be alive that day ), and gelding apparently came out of it none the worse for wear, as there was the standard breeze for the state vet nine days later. Quite often you can get a generous price on those who failed to finish their most recent start, as bettors have a psychological tendency to dismiss them, given the ugly running line, and if you notice, the prior three outings were just fine, thank you. I'm not quite sure of the size of the blinkers or the shadow roll situation for that start ( if you can zoom in on the replay, then God bless you ), but would be curious to see if Handal tinkers with the gear a bit here. #8 BIG AGENDA has a major bout of "seconditis" brewing, and we're not one to rock the boat, so will place her in the place spot once again. #1A HIGH PROMISE hung up her best # to date in the lone "3rd off the L/O" go round, and also finished 2nd beneath today's jockola in their lone pairing. Sensible addition.  OFF TURF: 2-5-3-8-4  NOTE: AS OF 1:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 5

1.Blugrascat's Smile

2.Danebury

3.Broken Engagement

#4 BLUGRASCAT'S SMILE was a mite antsy at the onset of the 5/19 heat, but still ended up a well clear second that day. Gelding has a propensity for going wide, and we're hoping Luz can navigate a tidier sojourn. #5 DANEBURY is the 2nd half of the uncoupled entry w/the above ( which we've ALWAYS been against ), & is 2 for 5 at the trip ( 1 fer 7 otherwise ). #3 BROKEN ENGAGEMENT was eased in the comebacker, but like we just mentioned in the above race, you can occasionally get overlays with those who failed to finish their last. Gelding is 2 for 3 right here & Dylan always tries hard for the minor spoils.

 

Race 6

1.Casse Entry

2.Regal Dame

3.Vibrant Spirit

#1 MO FLASH is a bit light from a speed figure perspective, but happens to be bred really well for today's initial stretchout, and Javy is enticed to ride. Coupled with the above is the #1A BLISSFUL BREEZE, who has crashed the super in four straight ( including back to back jacks ), and just won a slightly weaker event where three returnees have gone 1-0-1 in their subsequent outings. #2 REGAL DAME has speed, the wood, and a good 'send' rider. That's enough to merit inclusion. #3 VIBRANT SPIRIT is another zippy sort who is 3:1-1-1 when available for purchase.  OFF TURF: 6-2-8-5-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 THEODOSIA sounds about right here, as Gargan is a woeful 1 for 26 when going short to long on the lawn.

 

Race 7 

1.Tiznow's Smile

2.Belle of the Spa

3.Same Kinda Crazy

#9 TIZNOW'S SMILE tries the gramma for the first time today, but the breeding is okay for the stuff, and this one was an honest runner up in the only prior "3rd off the shelf" try . Slimmest of margins in another wide open heat. #8 BELLE OF THE SPA hasn't been in action since last October, but was doing some good things when last in action & given some extra "maturity" points since then, is an obvious playah if geared up for this. #5 SAME KINDA CRAZY is 3:1-1-0 at this dist. ( 24:2-1-3 at other trips ), & has a third & two fourth place finishes from as many starts when going from sand to sod.  OFF TURF: 11-4-2-3-6

 

 Race 8

1.Angry Moon

2.Wonderful Light

3.Silver ride

#3 ANGRY MOON sure is a fun "horse" ( who still has all his parts at the age of seven ). What's not to like about a fella who's been a part of the tri in half of his starts, while going over the $400,000 mark in last. Not only is this one 11:3-2-2 off the bench, but Papa Englehart is a snappy 4 for 5 with optional dirt sprinters in the 43-90 day bracket at odds of 12-1 or less, and just look at these prices--$17, $5, $13 & $25. #4 WONDERFUL LIGHT has yet to miss the money, and Nevin is heaven with those going short in optional dirt dashers who won 32-64 days back & re 7-2 or lower ( $8, $6, $4, $6 & $4 ). #6 SILVER RIDE hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but is 3:1-0-1 off L/O's, and is reunited with Saez, for whom he's done his best work. Look at that bullet gate move last week ( our favorite kind ), which was ( although tied for first with barn mate Psychoanalyze ) a full 2 2/5th seconds ahead of the 3rd best workout from the gate that morning. Watch out, suckahs. 

 

 Race 9

1.Burkey's Babe

2.Single Mission

3.Reconsider It ( AE )

After being unable to eliminate any horses at first glance over the first eight races, we finally found a spot with some wiggle room, as we were able to eliminate half of those in the body of today's nitecap. Three of them have nice trainer stats, so let's get directly to it... #1 BURKEY'S BABE ( who has shown improved speed over her last triad ) will be led over by Terranova, who's a tight 3-4 with runners of this ilk who crashed the fiesta 20-70 days ago & are < 8-1, with all winners paying 6 clams. #7 SINGLE MISSION went 46-48-53 in her three turf attempts last year before being sidelined for one reason or another. Draw a line through the Beyer of the off the turf return, as the green is where this one will make her green, and 16% clan is 7 for 17 when going from dirt to gramma with sprinters who were 1-2-3 < 67 days back ( 14-1 or beneath ) with a return on investment of $4.34. #4 RECONSIDER IT (AE) needs a couple to reconsider running today in order to make it over to the races, but should that come to bear, is backed by a tiny # that says Sweezey ain't sleazy with maiden claiming turfers who hit the top three in most recent ( $13 & $3 ).  OFF TURF: 15(MTO)-16(MTO)-6-7-4  NOTE: AS OF 1:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Belmont          ( Current )  63-342   ( $580.00 )    Beatable Favorites   7-26  ( 26.9% )   Favorites Win %: 120-342  ( 35.1% )( As of Friday morning )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017