KevinCoxItem


Blanked upstairs but the "unders" saved us a bit yesterday. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 6/10

 

 Race 1

1.Gump

2.Rhythmia

3.Mucho

#1 GUMP had to navigate through a forrest of runners to get up for second in a slightly troubled debut a couple'a dozen days ago, and rates a slight advantage in a tough to decipher quintet. #4 RHYTHMIA is another who encountered some difficulty in the career starter, but gets the wonder drug administered today, and Maragh scored with a bomber for this outfit not too long ago. #3 MUCHO ( which is what's usually yelled after an exceptional Jai Alai play ) has a sweet gate move up at Oklahoma on display for today's overture, & is a February bred facing younger foes.  Due to a gate scratch the #2 will now be our 3rd selection.

 

      Race 2

1.Fair Regis

2.Diamond Jen Brady

3.Bowl of Kisses

#6 FAIR REGIS has hit the board in five straight, and Falcone has been working 'miracles' this year ( 34% ). Tepid choice in a tough to decipher heat, and you'd be well served to take a gander in the paddock, as the front wraps were added in last. #3 DIAMOND JEN BRADY hasn't been seen since before the Super Bowl, but was doing good things back then, and workouts say "go". #4 BOWL OF KISSES got the diploma in handy fashion in her 2018 bow & is a logical inclusion off that effort. 

 

Race 3

1.Patriotic Endeavor 

2.Daring Prospect

3.Archumybaby

#6 PATRIOTIC ENDEAVOR has been befallen by back to back layoff lines since the purchase, but has won all four starts at this level or lower, and excels at this distance. Big shot if sound. #1 DARING PROSPECT went pillar to post in besting weaker over at Philadelphia Park, and has a placing & showing in her only "3rd start off the L/O" deals. Slight bugaboo is the 0-3 mark when breaking from the inside. #3 ARCHUMYBABY has fared decently at this trip & over this strip, & drops a peg this afternoon. 

 

      Race 4

1.Terrabyte 

2.Best Performance

3.Pamina

#3 TERRABYTE ( possible a hybrid of the trainer's name & "Data Link" being the sire? ) lit up the tote board when scoring at first asking right here 25 days back, and followed that up w/a decent breeze last week. Mild edge. #2 BEST PERFORMANCE is clearly the class of this lot & is 3rd off the shelf today. Can't leave this one out of your rollers. #7 PAMINA has yet to miss an exacta & gets an appreciable rider change today; should be rolling late in the game.  OFF TURF: 7-1-4-3-5

 

      Race 5

1.Gypsum Johnny

2.True Timber

3.Gold for the King

#6 GYPSUM JOHNNY has fared well at this trip & over this strip, and also owns a crisp 3:2-1-0 mark in second off the break forays. First time up for sale in quite some time, so watch out. #5 TRUE TIMBER finished third in a similar spot 36 days ago, and McL. is a fair 3-10 with locally based optional dirt stock who crashed the board 24-48 days in the rear & are between $2,50-1 & $7.50-1 today ( $16, $8 & $8 ). This one has been a bit of an in and outer at times, so tread lightly. #4 GOLD FOR THE KING is 1 for 2 off "true" layoffs, and has that type of "declining" record that we love to see ( 13:5-3-2 ) as it shows he knows where the wire is. 2 for 2 with Rosario. Hmmmmm...... 

 

Race 6

1.Carthon

2.Blame the Thief

3.Phone Funky Monkey

#2 CARTHON has put forth successive career best efforts, and although there's a surface switch in play today, the breeding is not that much worse than that of the dirt. Interesting to see Rosario climb aboard. #11 BLAME THE THIEF has been in the money a couple of times here, and one of those starts was when breaking from the outermost slot. #4 PHONE FUNKY MONKEY hasn't seen the scene in quite some time, but the adjusted number from the maiden breaker last August would lay over most of these---IF able to get back to that number.  Really not jamming on this race, and wouldn't begrudge anyone doing the laundry.  OFF TURF: 6-7-8(MTO)-9(MTO)-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 

1.Your Only Man

2.Baseline

3.Wild About Deb 

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 YOUR ONLY MAN won the only time he was available for purchase and has an excellent collection of speed figures. Immensely logical. #3 BASELINE has excellent zip & is makes his second start off the break today. #8 WILD ABOUT DEB undergoes a trainer change once again, but has a boatload of back class and Johnny V. returns despite not having been in the money with this one in either pairing.  OFF TURF: 5-8-3-1A-6

 

 Race 8

1.Tribecca

2.Benevolence

3.Sudden Surprise

#3 TRIBECCA is fleet afoot, owns a 2:1-1-0 mark in Elmont,and there's a rare ( positive ) Gary Sciacca stat in play today. Over the last 260 weeks, aforementioned 8% shotcaller is 3 fer 7 with Bel. optional dirt horseys in the 17-22 day zip code ( 9-1 or less ). The winners came back $9, $13 & $16, and grab this one by the tail to get teh glory. #8 BENEVOLENCE has alternated losses & wins over his last quintet, and has been a part of the action in 5 of 6 @ the dx., while closing out the exacta in 4 of 7 at Big Sandy. Has a win & a runner up finish in the only two outings with a "For Sale" sticker on his rump, and gets a nice change to Saez this afternoon. #4 SUDDEN SURPRISE won first time off the ( rare ) claim for Pletchah, and win machine ( 11-22 ) is an even better 4 for 6 at the trip. 

 

 Race 9

1.Sower

2.Pacific Gale

3.Devine Mischief

#4 SOWER is an undefeated horse at more than 3-1 ( always worth a looksie in our eyes ), and we like the versatility shown last time out when switching ovals & track conditions, but getting the job done again, nonetheless. We love those dropping pounds off a win ( this one does just that by 90 ounces ), and Rice is a groovy 6-9 with ungraded dirt stock who got their photos taken < 45 days ago & are 9-2 or lower ( $3.20 return on investment ). #2 PACIFIC GALE hasn't faced the starter since last fall, but returns with a bullet in the holster, a better pilot, and a 3 for 4 mark in 1X races; live longshot. #1 DEVINE MISCHIEF has essentially improved with each start & is tough to leave outta the mix. 

 

 Race 10

1.La Manche

2.Thank You So Much

3.Space Captain

#10 LA MANCHE has yet to finish better than 7th, but the numbers earned are just fine, and could perk up with the jockey/trainer change. #3 THANK YOU  SO MUCH is "second time turf route" today and kind of odd to see Irad sticking around here, no? #12 SPACE CAPTAIN has been laid up a bit since the $35,000 claim back in March, and now returns sans tes-tee-klees, so at least they got his attention, if nothing else. The numbers were on the improve prior to the claim, and although Franco is slated to ride as of this writing ( 12:02 A.M. Saturday ), you should check the changes as he's lucky to be alive after an hellacious spill in Friday's nitecap.  OFF TURF: 12-7-8-11-13(MTO)

  


Belmont          ( Current )  50-267   ( $450.20 )    Beatable Favorites   4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %:  101-267  ( 37.8% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017