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BIG day for us here yesterday as we got home winners of $26 & $55, Rolling Daily Doubles of $237, $723 & $221, and a Rolling Pick three of $3,386 !!

We are currently on a very profitable 13 for 38 run. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 6/8

 

 Race 1

1.Ticonderoga

2.King Kreesa

3.Almanaar ( GB )

#6 TICONDEROGA is 2 for 5 at the trip ( 1-6 otherwise ), finished a decent 3rd in the lone "Third off the L/O" try, and Brown is 7:4-1-2 with said type under these exact conditions below 7-1 ( $3.10 ROI ). Slight edge in a wide open opener. #7 KING KREESA hasn't seen the scene in about ten months, but gutsy gelding owns a whopping 7 for 15 mark over this course, and is back in the Donk barn. #8 ALANAAR (GB) has been beset by some layoff lines, but improved with each start since arriving in the States ( at increasing class levels, too ), and is the second half of an uncoupled Brown entry. Should be coming late.  OFF TURF: 6-5-1-2-8

 

      Race 2

1.Mama Mary

2.Fancycase

3.Dream Passage ( AE )

#2 MAMA MARY looks like a goodie. Bodemeister gal has been working lights out in the morning ( including a bullet from the gate ), barn's go to rider is here for the mount, and Sharp ( from a miniscule sampling ) is just that with firsters fitting all this exact criteria, as he won both times with this type ( $10 & $6 ). Coast to coast ? #8 FANCYCASE cuts back today after showing speed in the bow, & it's encouraging to see Stone stick around after the 84-1 overture; price play. #13 DREAM PASSAGE (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that come to fruition, brings in a swell collection of speed figures for Lynch.  OFF TURF: 3-5-6-7-14(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 11:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Divine Miss Grey

2.Chalon

3.American Gal

First graded event of the afternoon is the Grade 3 Bed 'O Roses Handicap, and for some info on this event ( won by Robbie Davis a record three times ) go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bed_O%27_Roses_Invitational_Stakes . #5 DIVINE MISS GREY has that perfect type of 'declining' record that we love to see ( 16:8-4-0 ) as well as an affinity for this strip ( 3 fer 4 ). Filly won in her only ( dirt ) off the layoff try, and she has the perfect type of running style for this trip. Slim margin in yet another wide open heat that we've analyzed so far this week. #3 CHALON has  win & a runner up finish from as many second off the break outings, and lone returnee from the last came back to get the job done. #2 AMERICAN GAL rarely gives a bad account of herself.  NOTE: AS OF 11:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 4

1.Spring to the Sky

2.Salmanazar

3.Sandy'z Slew

#8 SPRING TO THE SKY has done his best work at this trip & over this strip, and won three in a row beneath Javy about a million years ago, Meeeekest of selections in yes---a wide, wide, open dash. #6 SALMANAZAR has top flight speed & sheds some weight off a solid placing. #3 SANDY'Z SLEW won this race at The Big A nearly two months ago & is logical once again.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-4-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:10, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 5

1.Mae Never No ( Ire )

2.Outshine

3.Sombeyay

Welcome to the "Todd Pletcher Tremont" !! ( As he has three of the seven entered here. )  Boy, Wesley Ward really put one over on us with the debut of #7 MAE NEVER NO (IRE), as he had two in that race, with the other taking all the bread, only to see this one score nicely beneath Gary Stevens. Said pilot took a bit of a tumble in the paddock on Sunday, but he said afterwards that he was none the worse for wear ( aside from calling off his remaining mounts ), and this one sheds 48 ounces off the win. W.W. is a tidy 3 for 5 with second timers off a maiden win at this level & locale ( < 7-1 ) with the winners returning $12, $6 & $5. #4 OUTSHINE & #2 SOMBEYAY are backed by 4-7 & 4-8 respective trainer stats with the categories we just listed above ( 12-1 or lower ) w/the only difference being Johnny V. runners having the better #'s.

 

Race 6

1.I'm Amazing

2.Orbed

3.Fallstar

#1 I'M AMAZING has been befallen by a bunch of layoff lines, ( notice the 11 & 7 month breaks in the action after the last two ) but the workouts for today's comebacker are solid enough, and this one did extremely well when breaking from the inside over this surface. 17% shedrow is a nifty 26:7-4-3-4 with maiden special weight dirt stock off sabbaticals of 152-304 days, and look at the winning prices: $26, $64, $9, $4, $7, $6 & $22 ). Pre-layoff pilot returns today. #5 ORBED was a game runner up when well clear in a similar spot on 4/29, and is logical once again. #8 FALLSTAR is another who's been bitten by the injury bug, but numbers are heading in the right direction and there was a bullet gate breeze ( our favorite ) last Friday up at Oklahoma.

 

Race 7 

1.Themanbehindtheman

2.Almithmaar

3.War Chest

The connections of #5 THEMANBEHINDTHEMAN utilized the complete allotment of 18 characters in creating this one's moniker, and they couldn't have been more pleased to see this one go all the way in the curtain riser down in Lexington on April 19th. Top flight turf breeding says it was likely no aberration, & we'll pin our hopes to another wire job in a difficult race. #6 ALMITHMAAR has improved w/each start, and should handle today's surface switch just fine. #6 WAR CHEST exits a key race where three of the four returnees came back to get the job done next out with an average Beyer improvement of 1.2 points.  OFF TURF: 5-6-8-10-3

 

 Race 8

1.Limousine Liberal

2.Bobby Abu Dhabi

3.Always Sunshine

#5 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL tries his hardest each & every time, & won quite easily in his lone try at this very tricky dx. Gelding is 3:1-0-1 in 3rd off the layoff forays & has good familiarity with Jose; mild choice. #4 BOBBY ABU DHABI comes in today off back to back career best performances & is an obvious "must include" here. #7 ALWAYS SUNSHINE is 1 fer 3 in second off the break tries and rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( Make a wish ! ) DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH  TEH #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 9

1.Fourstar Crook

2.Sistercharlie ( Ire )

3.Daddys Lil Darling

#8 FOURSTAR CROOK has a win & a placing from as many starts off this type of L/O scenario, is 3 for 4 right here, and 5 for 6 with Irad astride. Many things to like about this half of the uncoupled Brown entry. #5 SISTERCHARLIE (IRE) ( barnmate of the above ) has missed the exacta but once in seven career starts, missed by only a neck in lone try right here ( without Lasix ), and got the job done in her only 2nd try off a break. #5 DADDYS LIL DARLING has done some nice work since being transitioned to the gramma, and although a mite light from a speed figure perspective, we'll include because of her gameness.  OFF TURF: 8-2-3-1-6

 

 Race 10

1.Postulation

2.Prince of Arran ( GB )

3.Funny Kid

Two mile marathon on tap here ( Dig it ! ), and without doing much scientific analysis, we've come up with the #8 POSTULATION. Six year old has been a part of the exact in half of his calls to the post ( including wins at a mile and a half and 1 11/16 miles. If any rider would have familiarity with these looooong races, it would be the French born Geroux. This one is 1 for 3 in 3rd off the bench go rounds, and 22% conditioner is 5 for 10 with said type in non jump turf routes ( $14, $8, $12, $25 & $4 ). You should get a square price here. #5 PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB) actually cuts back in distance today, and goes through the usual changes that these European imports do ( adds Lasix & drops a boatload of weight); Irad gets the call. #4 FUNNY KID doesn't have as much back class as a few others signed on, but is a neck shy of a grand slam and has done extremely well at these dx.'s.  OFF TURF: 10-4-8-9-2

 

 Race 11

1.Mathematician

2.Into the Breach

3.Captain Hardship

Sigghhhhhh....we loathe using runners like the #2 MATHEMATICIAN ( you know the type---6:M-0-5 on the lawn ) on the topside, as they begin to develop that kind of reputation, but in all reality, this one appears legitimately solid & why take a "stab" with one of the five other runners we "sorta" like? For all intents & purposes, merely narrowing this dozen down to a quintet is a refreshing change of pace, as we were only able to eliminate 14 runners from our last 19 "first drafts" over the last two days. #5 INTO THE BREACH appears to be the mainger danger to the above, given this one's nice collection of numeros ( especially since being switched to the green stuff ). #7 CAPTAIN HARDSHIP has led at the top of the lane in his last duet, and that can never be discounted when dealing with maidens.  OFF TURF: 8-10-3-12-9

 


Belmont          ( Current )  49-243   ( $439.80 )    Beatable Favorites   4-16  ( 25.0% )   Favorites Win %:  92-243  ( 37.9% )( As of Friday morning )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017