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Another fair day for us here on Sunday, as we broke even with a three bagger, caught a cold $72 triple as well as a box for $167, and had an ice cold $19 daily double as well as a successful "Beatable Favorite".

Heating up at the right time. as we're on an 11 for 29 streak.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 6/7

 

 Race 1

1.Fair Archer

2.Fast Getaway

3.My Mr. Wonderful

#3 FAIR ARCHER did his 'Flatterer' impersonation in last, when jumping over the temporary rail in leaving one turf course & entering another a dozen days ago, but given the recent bullet, came out from that escapade none the worse for wear. The turf breeding ( Arch ) is there, and from a tiny sampling, Kimmel is 2 for 3 with locally based runners fitting all this criteria ( < 40-1 ). The winners returned $48 & $22, and there may be some good value here. #8 FAST GETAWAY showed some early hoof in the career starter, and undergoes a gamut of changes today -- dirt to turf, stronger rider, loses the hood, and also loses his procreating abilities -- any of which may be enough to put him in the mix this afternoon. #11 MY MR. WONDERFUL went from a 37 to a 63 from the first turf start to the second, and we like that this one ( who has broken on top in all his calls to the post ) draws the outside for the first time.  OFF TURF: 5-1-2-3-9

 

      Race 2

1.Street Vision

2.Polar Jet

3.Autostrade

#6 STREET VISION was dead game in fighting back to win the Arcadian finale, and as a matter of fact, this one has been alternating losses & wins over his last octet. We feel that streak is coming to an end today, as Jacobsen is a juicy 8:5-1-1 with second off the claim allowance dirt sprinters coming in off a win ( 6-1 or less ) w/ an ROI of $3.80+. Note this one's 3 fer 7 mark at the trip as well. #2 POLAR JET has missed the superfecta but once in 11 lifetime starts, and is 5:3-0-1-1 when beginning from the innermost two slots. #1A AUTOSTRADE burned some bread at 4-5 down at Keeneland, but gets off the rail here, which could help a bit.  NOTE: AS OF 12:04, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Mybigitalianfriend

2.Kidoro

3.Ascot Walk

#3 MYBIGITALIANFRIEND & #1 KIDORO have been working in tandem for the last seven trips to the track in the morning, and amazingly, they have identical times in each & every one of the moves. The one glaring difference is that the former conducted the last workout in a breezing fashion, while the latter was urged a bit more ( handling ). That's how we'll place these two uncoupled Chad Brown barnmates. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #5 ASCOT WALK here, as there's a bullet gate move ( always a favorite of ours ) amidst a bevy of ordinary workouts. Jersey Joe had a nice winner with McL. last week. 

 

      Race 4

1.Old Upstart

2.Bad Student

3.Bolita Boyz

In a heat where we were unable to eliminate any runners at first glance we dove into the DRF Formulator platform and came up with three decent stats. Let's get to 'em. #2 OLD UPSTART: Not only is this gelding a sensational 4 for 5 in "3rd off the L/O" starts ( 6-33 otherwise ), but Carlito ( from a teensie sampling ) is 2 for 3 with local dirt dashers at this level in a similar layoff scenario ( OTB in last ). Those winners came back $25 & $5, and this one is also 2 fer 5 when breaking from the pine. NONE of those races overlap, which makes this one 8 for 13 in all three categories. The more we type... #8 BAD STUDENT is backed by a 9 for 20 trainer number which says that Diodoro is just that with Elmont runners of this ilk who crashed the party less than 64 days ago & are 12-1 or under ( $4.00+ ROI ). #6 BOLITA BOYZ will be led over by a conditioner who's 7:3-2-1-1 when stepping up mid level dirt sprinters right here by 50% or more off breaks 0f 48 days or less ( ITM in last ). The winners returned $18, $14 & $13, and seven year old digs it here.  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1A WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 5

1.Bird's Eye View

2.Gauguin ( Ger )

3.Holiday Bonus

#6 BIRD'S EYE VIEW looked like he was gonna go from zero to hero down in Lexington, but got set down for lugging in late. Mild edge to make amends. #8 GAUGIN (GER) has always been a  bit of a fringe player, but has the wonder drug added today and obviously belongs. #4 HOLIDAY BONUS is a nibblah by rote, but 17% Motion is 14:4-3-1 with runners fitting all this exact criteria off hibernations of 146-292 days ( $24, $7, $12 & $5 ). Including in another event where we couldn't chunk anyone right off the bat.  OFF TURF: 1-3-8-9-11

 

Race 6

1.Tijori

2.Athens Queen

3.Wonder Stone

#7 TIJORI is a $30,000 bred animal who went for five and a quarter at auction before sizzling in the western overture nearly four weeks ago. There's been a bullet move since, and this one can be any kind. The #8 ATHENS QUEEN & the #1 WONDER STONE comprise both halves of the uncoupled Wesley Ward entry who got the job done first time out, and while Johnny was given the latter to ride today, that was pre-draw, and we'll side with Queen to close out the exacta, given the likelihood of an easier sojourn. ( For what it's worth, we've only eliminated ONE horse with our first draft up to this point today,so tread very lightly. )

 

Race 7 

1.Stormy Victoria ( Fr )

2.Delectation ( GB )

3.La Sardane ( Fr )

#10 STORMY VICTORIA (FR) is 2 for 2 at the trip, 3:1-2-0 at Belmont, 2:1-1-0 when breaking from the 8 hole on out ( with just one placing being cross referenced among that 7:4-3-0 study ), and C-Squared can always be counted on for having his horses ready to give their best performances. For his inconsistencies at times, Rosario has a tendency to shine during big weeks such as this. #7 DELECTATION (GB) lost by less than two against the boys on Derby weekend, and has posted a couple of nice speed figures since arriving in the States. #2 LA SARDANE (FR) may spice things up a bit underneath.  OFF TURF: 8-10-9-2-4

 

 Race 8

1.Mighty Scarlett

2.Altea ( Fr )

3.Significant Form

Grade 3 Wonder Again on tap here, and speaking of "3", that's the amount of Chad Brown runners entered --- isn't that just great for the sport !!  #2 MIGHTY SCARLETT had a troubled trip when shipped up to Oldsmar for the career starter ( finishing second ), but then put it all together when procuring the sheepskin down at KEE a few weeks later. Listen, Brown horses that look like this don't regress, ( especially when they go at the sales for 9X the breeding price & are obviously well meant ), so we're expecting continued improvement, despite the J/T combo not being on the same page of late. #1 ALTA (FR) is third off the shelf today, and like the above, is on the improve over the last two. Sensible. #5 SIGNIFICANT FORM is 3 for 4 & completes our CBT ( Chad Brown Tri ).  OFF TURF: 8-2-5-3-1

 

 Race 9

1.Nantucket Red

2.Competitionofideas

3.Fashion Week

#10 NANTUCKET RED got a little spooked when pulling a 'Justify' in jumping the tracks late in the game of the Hallandale bow, but still got 10% of the purse money that day for this clan. Hall of Famer ( not known for working his stock quickly ) has had this one going at a good clip up at Oklahoma since the debut, and this one is backed by a 7:3-1-1-2 stat, as well. Over the last 60 months, Mott is just that w/second timers in turf routes right here of breaks of 23-69 days ( $10, $5 & $6 ). Jose takes over. #4 COMPETITIONOFIDEAS stretches out off a decent sprinting deal, but as we feel this type gets overbet on the top end, we have no qualms about leaving beneath. #5 FASHION WEEK is a nice "numbers collector", and although she doesn't wow us enough to place in the top pot, we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 4-5-6-13(MTO)-11

 


Belmont          ( Current )  47-234   ( $358.90 )   Beatable Favorites   4-16  ( 25.0% )   Favorites Win %:  91-234  ( 38.9% ) 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017