KevinCoxItem


Another good day for us here yesterday, as we booted home a profitable grand slam ( including the Beholder Mile ).

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #5 Okinawa


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Belmont - 6/3

 

 Race 1

1.Satin Sheets

2.Moment of Triumph

3.Asian's Way

Seven signed on, but we won't go any deeper than the top two for all our rolling action. #3 SATIN SHEETS is available for purchase for the first time today, and The As Man owns a 15:5-8-1 mark when doing that to runners of this ilk at 9-2 or less ( 56-112 days ). $25,000 auction purchase has earned more than 4X that amount to date & is priced to move. #4 MOMENT OF TRIUMPH went coast to coast in the first start over this strip, ( AND first start for this barn ) & Diodoro is a groovy 9:6-1-1 with second of the claim dirt dashers who scored < 18 days back & are 3-1 or lower. There's a positive return on investment in that regards, but keep in mind that this one is 0-6 in the next starts off career best performances. Hmmmm..... #6 ASIAN'S WAY has closed out the exacta in both starts at this dist. & seems like a legit "unders" candidate.   NOTE: AS OF 12:58 WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO CHOICES.

 

      Race 2

1.Truth in the Lies

2.Madame Barbarian

3.Gia Michael

#3 TRUTH IN THE LIES drops down to her lowest level yet, but Servis can do no wrong at this stand, and mare is 2 for 5 in second off the layoff tries while also being 1 fer 3 beneath Irad ( no overlapping races ). Oh yeah, this white hot clan is 4-9 when dropping their turf stayers 50% or more ( off the board in latest ) w/a positive ROI as well. We give the #4 MADAME BARBARIAN a BIG shot today, based on the prorated adjustment from the last ( a one turn dirt event over a fast track ) to today's circumstances ( two turns over firm ground ). Always like when the pre-claim pilot sticks around, as well. #8 GIA MICHAEL by no means disgraced herself in the initial turf foray & may spice things up at a healthy numero today.  OFF TURF: 4-3-2-7-11(MTO)

 

Race 3

1.Candygram

2.Consensus Thinking

3.Domain

(#1) "CANDYGRAM" for Mongo...candygram for Mongo... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8ciVBQixpU -- has put forth three solid efforts to start things out, but after the recent money burning placing, Double J decided to give this one a few weeks off before putting him back on a steady worktab. Aforementioned shotcaller boasts a 14:6-4-1 ledger with local runners of this ilk off breaks of 33-96 days, and has a whopping $4.51 ROI with 'em as well. #6 CONSENSUS THINKING bested half the field first time out & gets a better draw today. #5 DOMAIN posted a decent number in the turf bow, and cuts back while switching over today. Incorporating, but not sold, given the Tommy for the trip. 

 

      Race 4

1.Spectacular Kid

2.Mo Diddley

3.Sicilia Mike

#6 SPECTACULAR KID should have a good shot here in his first start at Belmont if he can stay away from those safety pins in the morning. The winning Finger Lakes number is solid enough, and the turf pedigree ( although not great ) is better than that of the dirt. That's really not too important to us when it comes to turf sprinters, but what we do like is that they think enough of this chap to take the southeastern sojourn today, and bring the rider along as well. #2 MO DIDDLEY closed out the triple in the initial turf attempt, and Jose takes the call today; live runner. #8 SICILIA MIKE is 23:1-9-5 lifetime...do you need more reason than that to chunk beneath?  OFF TURF: 6-7-8-1-3

 

      Race 5

1.Burkie

2.Bad to Dah Bone

3.Dab

#3 BURKIE didn't show a heck of a lot in any of the three starts to date, but the blinkers come off today, and me thinks they were removed for the bullet breeze up at Oklahoma. How sizzling was that move? Well, only 3 of 20 worked better than 49 & 4 that morning, and THIS is a maiden claimer. Watch out, suckas !  Gary Sciacca ain't known for his prowess with debuters, but we'll toss the #10 BAD TO DAH BONE into the mix, given the extremely high Tomlinson figure for today's trip ( 431 ), two crisp moves on the worktab, and nice draw; Fragoso been on a couple of live ones for this barn. #1 DAB is a money immolater, but is also tough to leave off the rollers.  

 

Race 6

1.Short Kakes

2.Epping Forrest

3.Fear No Evil

#9 SHORT KAKES hasn't missed a superfecta in ten straight, is 1 for 2 beneath Stone, and 12% outfit is 9:3-2-0 when going brown to green with Elmont dashers off breaks of 15-31 days ( $31, $11 & $9 ) at 15-1 or lower. ( With a sub category of 2 fer 2 for those OFF the board in last. ) #6 EPPING FOREST got the job done in her only "true' second off the layoff try, and owns a poyfect 3 for 3 mark over this oval. Hard to fault this runner named after an area outside of London. #1 FEAR NO EVIL ( a grandson of 'Lion Heart'...dig it ) has finished second in both forays when beginning from the pine & gets ( respectfully, to Edgar ) a jockey upgrade this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 3-1-6-2(MTO)-10  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We'll take a stand against the #5 OKINAWA here, as Brown is 0-8 with 2nd off the shelf turf dashers at this locale.

 

Race 7 

1.Jegos Fire

2.Peculiar Sensation

3.Prophet's Cat

#8 JEGOS FIRE finished 3rd in the lone "second off the L/O" try and the lone win came on this course. Gelding split the field despite a bunch of trouble in last and we'll swing away at a big numero. #4 PECULIAR SENSATION is 2nd off the shelf today & has done so so right here. ( You get the feeling we ain't jamming on this deal? ) #7 PROPHET'S CAT as bad as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 5-7-6-9-2

 

 Race 8

1.Timeline

2.Hoffenheim

3.Tapwrit

#1 TIMELINE has some back class & is 2nd off the break today, Like our third choice, may have needed the comebacker with bigger fish to fry down the road. #4 HOFFENHEIM has crashed the party in 12 of 14 lifetime & seems like the perfect kind of animal to incorporate into the exotics in a compact field such as this. #6 TAPWRIT is obviously the class of this field, but we're not entirely convinced that Pletcher will have this one fully cranked up with big races like the Whitney on the horizon.

 

 Race 9

1.My Dream

2.Unforseeable

3.Linburgh's Kitten

#11 MY DREAM improved his speed figure in a big way when stepping up in class & going from brown, and did so despite encountering trouble in his second straight outing. Orb not known for his success with turfers, but we'll bite, given the biggest drop in the game being in play today. #12 UNFORSEEABLE will actually be "seeing" less today with blinkers being added by Serpe here, and factoring that in with this one catching firm ground once again, and we have the looks of a live runner. #3 LINBURGH'S KITTEN ( like most Ward runners ) has nice early zip and can land a share.  OFF TURF: 2-8-7-10-9  NOTE: AS OF 1:04, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-12-3.

 


Belmont          ( Current )  44-225   ( $341.20 )    Beatable Favorites   4-15   ( 26.7% )  Favorites Win %:  87-225  ( 38.7% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )     Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  6-38     ( $43.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 17-38    ( 44.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 52-330   ( $463.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 108-330  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1814-8495 ($14,616.00)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3126-8589( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1899-9063  ($15,435.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3289-9176( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017