KevinCoxItem


Nice day for us here yesterday with a grand salami ( $7, $4, $18 & $11 ) as well as an ice cold $236 Pick 3 as well as two ice cold daily doubles of $45 & $17, and ALL three "Beatable Favorites" going down the drain.

Just a remider that if you want today's analysis for the Grade One Beholder Mile from Santa Anita Park, merely go back one page.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 6/2

 

 Race 1

1.Aly's All Out

2.Big Expense

3.Trinni Ninja

#8 ALY'S ALL OUT was a dead game runner up first time out of the box for Rudy Rod, and probably would've gotten the jog done, had Irad not gotten butterfingers late in the game, in losing his stick. That effort may have removed a touch of starch from the collar, as there's been a near two month break since then. Luis takes over today, and barn is 3 for 8 w/locally based second timers under these circumstances ( 112 days or less ) at 7-2 or lower ( $4, $6 & $9 ). #6 BIG EXPENSE has closed out the exacta in three straight, and that seems like a good spot for her once again. #1 TRINNI NINJA takes the biggest drop in the game today and has a few decent running lines.

 

      Race 2

1.Fortuitous Path

2.Karma Delight

3.Too Fast to Pass

#1 FORTUITOUS PATH was moved up to first via DQ in last, and the figure earned from that day was solid enough. Rudy ( 19% on the norm ) is 13:5-3-2 with 3rd off the bread dirt dashers right here at Elmont who were ITM in last ( 10-1 or < ). There's a bullet breeze since the last, and that's always a positive sign for a closer. #5 KARMA DELIGHT is 2 for 4 here ( 1-11 elsewhere ) and has done decent work beneath Double D. #3 TOO FAST TO PASS has done his best work at the trip, and has enough speed to last for at least a share; this completes the triad we'll be using in all our rolling action.

 

Race 3

1.Money Purse

2.Beyondelle

3.Sugar Curl

#5 MONEY PURSE went from a 37 to a 56 from the first turf start to the second, and after a decent placing down in Lexington, is spotted back on the gramma today. Third off the layoff right now, and note that the winner from last came back to get the job done once again. #7 BEYONDELLE has perked up in a big way since being transitioned to the green stuff, ans is another who may move forward in today's 3rd off the shelf try, while being in receipt of a nice jockey change. #10 SUGAR CURL rounded out the superfecta in her first spin on the lawn, and is a sensible addition to our top three selections here.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-2-3-9(MTO)-10

 

      Race 4

1.Tiz a Chance

2.Mascarello

3.Inheritthewind

#10 TIZ A CHANCE is 2 for 5 over this oval ( firm ground only ) & it's encouraging to see Cohen return despite running up the track at 66-1 three weeks back. Timid choice in a wide open heat. #3 MASCARELLO is 2 fer 5 at this dx. ( just 1-20 @ other distances of ground ) and got the job done in his only "3rd off the hiatus" outing on the sod. #9 INHERITTHEWIND is backed by a decent DRF Formulator stat which says that Rice ( 23% day to day ) is 4-10 w/3rd off the absence runners of this ilk ( 12-1 or less ), w/the winners coming back $10, $5 & $5.  OFF TURF: 4(MTO)-2-9-1(MTO)-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 5

1.Jump for Joy

2.Jacqueline D

3.Ouro Verde

#6 JUMP FOR JOY has been runner up in her last troika, and gets a big time jockey switch from Trevor to JJC today.Mare has fared well at this locale & rates a slight edge. #2 JACQUELINE D was given a bit of a break after losing by a neck in the first try off the claim for The As Man, and we like that he's been keeping her in training steadily since then. Lasix is once again part of the equation. Must use. #4 OURO VERDE is 3:1-0-1 in third off the L/O races, and it's hard to chunk a horse who's been a part of the action in 9 of 10.

 

Race 6

1.Impazible Creek

2.Animauxselle

3.Laura's Patriot

#5 IMPAZIBLE CREEK is an interesting claim by Randi, as not only doesn't he often plunk down a quarter for animals, but then even more rarely does he spot them on the turf. That being said, this one is in some decent form, and although the Tomlinson number is a mite low, we are most forgiving of such in dashes over the blades, as sometimes speed is more important than how they handle the ground. #3 ANIMAUXSELLE went really wide in this race on 5/11, but still got up in time to procure 10% of the purse money. Logical once again. #6 LAURA'S PATRIOT is a nibbler by nature ( 37:1-6-6 ), but Luzzi riding hungry & could grab a slice at a price.  OFF TURF: 7-3-2-1-11(MTO)

 

Race 7 

1.Peril

2.Dynamite Kitten

3.Gabriella

#4 PERIL showed stark improvement from the first start to the second, and today has the hood added, which is somewhat relevant here. From a limited sampling, C-Squared is 4:2-1-0 when doing that with his maiden special weight stayers on the sod ( < 100 days ) with the winners coming back 5 & 6 bucks. #8 DYNAMITE KITTEN begins her working life today, and hails from a 13% barn that's 3-15 with firsters of this caliber at 40-1 or less, and how 'bout these prices -- $20, $19 & $24. #2 GABRIELLA showed very little in the bow, but stepped up her game nicely when switching surfaces 23 days back, and there's no reason to dismiss here.  OFF TURF: 4-13(MTO)-11-12-1

 

 Race 8

1.Zap Zap Zap

2.May Be a Diamond

3.Stretch's Stone

#2 ZAP ZAP ZAP won rather easily down in Hallandale Beach at the end of April, and has yet to miss a super in ten lifetime starts. Lackluster selection in a lackluster affair. #6 MAY BE A DIAMOND went coast to coast vs. slightly weaker 2 1/2 weeks ago, and what makes this one even more dangerous today is that the adjusted, prorated figure earned from that day could be substantially higher over a fast track. #9 STRETCH'S STONE hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but has won over a shorter layoff before, and is an obvious threat if fully cranked up for today's effort.

 

 Race 9

1.Hawkish

2.Analyze It

3.Up the Ante

There are three short ( but stout ! ) DRF angles in place for today's rendition of the Pennine Ridge, so let's get right to 'em.  #2 HAWKISH ( cross entered at Penn National today so check the changes ) has improved with each outing thus far, and 14% shedrow is 3 for 4 with 3rd off the bench ungraded turf routers who got the job done 33-67 days ago ( $4, $9 & $11 ). Two horses from that event came back to win their next trips over to the frontside ( from three starters ) with an average Beyer improvement of 2.7 pts. for the triad. #4 ANALYZE IT is a poyfect 3 for 3 ( again ,with improving figs ) and Brown is 5-10 with locally based 2nd off the L/O unraded turf routers going 2X coming in off a win ( $3.19 ROI ). #1 UP THE ANTE shed five pounds off a win ( which we always like ), and 19% bossman is 3 for 7 with 3rd off the hiatus ungraded Belmont turf stayers coming in off a victory ( < 40-1 ), w/mutuels of $5, $13 & $17.  OFF TURF: 3-4-2-5-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:33, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 4-8-5.

 

 Race 10

1.Reflected Star

2.Bow Tie Affair

3.Blarp

At first glance it appears that the #6 REFLECTED STAR is just another solid runner in this fairly evenly matched field, but after delving into some trainer stats, we've ascertained that Mott is a sublime 7 for 14 with mid level turf stock at this venue going two turns off L/O's of 69 days or lower. What's interesting ( and another reason we use this particular filter in our studies ) is that Bill is substantially better with those who finished off the board last out, than in the money. Play of the day. #5 BOW TIE AFFAIR is confidently hiked up in the first start off the claim by Reynolds, and why not, given this one's affinity for the dist. #10 BLARP is back in action off an 8+ month sabbatical, and is another who digs this sojourn ( 10:3-3-0 ).  OFF TURF: 2-9-6-12-8

 


Belmont          ( Current )  41-215   ( $304.60 )    Beatable Favorites   4-15   ( 26.7% )  Favorites Win %:  84-215  ( 39.1% )( As of Sat. morning )

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Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  5-37     ( $40.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 16-37     ( 43.2% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 51-329   ( $460.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 107-329  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )     Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1813-8494 ($14,613.00)  Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3125-8588( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1898-9062   ($15,432.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3288-9175( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017