KevinCoxItem


Just a remider that if you want tomorrow's analysis for the Grade One Beholder Mile from Santa Anita Park, merely go back one page.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #3 La General  Race 4 - #6 Your Secrets Safe  Race 9 - #6 Run For Boston


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Belmont - 6/1 - ( One flip of the calendar 'til 'Toga ! )

 

 Race 1

1.Street Cat Sam

2.C K Dexter Haven

3.Blatant

#7 STREET CAT SAM has outrun his odds over the last two starts since being freshened, and 8% Ferraro is actually 4 for 12 ( 33.333333% ) with the following: 3rd off the layoff dirt dashers at 30-1 or less between 8 & 30 days ( any tag ). The prices for those winners? Well how does $39, $49, $25 & $23 grab you. Love the draw. #5 C K DEXTER HAVEN is your deserving favorite, what with those gaudy numbers and the drop in class. We almost don't need to tell you that Jacobsen is 4-7 with second off the claim/second off the layoff runners of this ilk with a $3.00+ ROI -- but we will. #4 BLATANT improved from the first start to the second, but was that the result of Lasix, front wraps or the slop ? Using, but not completely sold. 

 

      Race 2

1.Fortune Smiles

2.Tales of Chaucer

3.Stop Me If You Can

#6 FORTUNE SMILES has a bullet gate breeze on the docket for today's career starter, and not only is this a February bred facing younger competitors, but Morley is 2 for 6 ( $28 & $11 ) with firsters fitting ALL these parameters. This is the first foal out of a dam who was 3 for 5 in dirt dashes, banking $206K, and top notch sire was 3 for 3 over a fast track. Things to like here. #2 TALES OF CHAUCER has been doing very well in the A.M.'s for today's overture, and aside from the fact that mommy was 8-21 at this trip ( 133G ), this one is a half to a 3 fer 10 sprinter on the sand ( 211 large ) as well as one who was 2 for 5 doing the same thing ( 115 big ones ). #1 STOP ME IF YOU CAN has a 413 Tommy for today's initial foray, but is a late foal, so we'll give him a start.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 LA GENERAL fills the bill, as Nevin is 0-13 in all pertinent categories.

 

Race 3

1.Motivational

2.Neoclassic

3.Laythatpistoldown

#6 MOTIVATIONAL was sent over the hurdles a couple of times this year in an attempt to get the diploma for Fisher, as they don't run maiden jump races up at Saratoga during the summer, and that would make him eligible for any A1X events that are carded. ( I heard there're only six steeplechase races this year--two of them stakes. ) Things didn't quite pan out, so back on the flat he goes. With blinkers being re-affixed today, the good news is that this outfit is 5 for 10 when doing that to their turf stock off 20-45 day absences, with two of the winners ( the others were non betting affairs ) coming back $24 & $14. Castellano sees fit to ride. #4 NEOCLASSIC is 1 for 2 over this oval & 1 for 5 in second off the L/O tries. #7 LAYTHATPISTOLDOWN will be brought over by Jorge "The Miracle Man" Navarro today ( who's won 14 of his last 20 at MTH ), and game gelding has that nice declining record that we love to see ( 58:16-9-5 ). Sensible addition.  OFF TURF:2-1-3(MTO)-8-7

 

      Race 4

1.Proud Zip

2.Blame Us All

3.Kenyan

#4 PROUD ZIP was protected against the claim in the first start off an elongated break, and finished 3rd of 4 versus slightly tougher. Gelding closed out the exacta in his only second off the break attempt, and Rudy Rod is 6:4-1-0 with 2nd off the shelf/2nd off the purchase mid level dirt dashers at 30-1 or less ( $3.40 ROI ). #3 BLAME US ALL had no excuse for the recent flop, but has always been a bit of an in and outer, so we'll give him another chance. #5 KENYAN seems like a good "unders" candidate here, given the string of eight minor placings on the line.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 YOUR SECRETS SAFE will be led over by an hombre wjo's 0-9 when dropping his dirt stock 50% or more ( 40-70 days ).

 

      Race 5

1.Tillie's Lily

2.Touch of Bling

3.Spellker

Wide open deal here, so why not side with the undefeated #3 TILLIE'S LILY ? I mean, the numbers were heading in the right direction when sidelined, and she's beaten several next out winners, so... #3 TOUCH OF BLING has the best last two speed figures & gets a touch of class relief this afternoon. #6  SPELLKER is the first of two runners over the next week and a half that will bring in some Patriots fans' money, and this one may be the more legitimate of the duo. We like seeing a bullet breeze for a closer, as well as a score in the lone 2nd off the break try.  OFF TURF: 2-4(MTO)-3-7-1

 

Race 6

1.Cumberland River

2.Souper Platinum

3.Cookie Crisp

#1 CUMBERLAND RIVER has been bitten by the injury bug at times, so McL. runs up the white flag and puts this one up for sale for the first time today. There's light on this horizon, however, as said bossman is 3 for 5 when doing this to his mid level turf stayers in the 37-111 day bracket ( $12, $13 & $17 ). This one has lost a "couple of ounces" since the last, for what it's worth. #11 SOUPER PLATINUM has gone DNF-41-68 in his three turf starts to date ( interspersed with a 72 on the poly ), and Trombetta is sneaky good at times; include with Jose in the irons. #2 COOKIE CRISP may have enough speed to last for a share.  OFF TURF: 2-11-1-5-4

 

Race 7 

1.Sir Ballantine

2.Driven to Compete

3.J S Bach

We're really not feeling the love here, so be careful. #3 SIR BALLANTINE shoots for the hat trick today & is definitely on the improve; slight edge. #8 DRIVEN TO COMPETE has never missed a triple, and we see no reason to exclude here. #1 J S BACH was claimed for $32,000, and has netted about $37,000 for the owner since then, so being up a nickel & playing with house money, they put him in for a tag after a mini stakes win ( and why not? ). Will need to work out another good trip from this inside slot. 

 

 Race 8

1.First Appeal

2.Really Proud

3.China Rider

Two trainers in this race have nearly identical DRF Formulator stats with nearly identical categories. That's something you just don't see that often. #4 FIRST APPEAL ( 2 for 3 over these blades, with the lone loss being by just a schnozola ) will be led over by Linda Rice, who's 4 for 7 with second off the L/O turf dashes at this level coming in off a score & has nearly a $6 ROI in that regards. #5 REALLY PROUD: C-Squared is 4-6 with the same parameters listed above, substituting "won last" with "in the money" ( $3.76 ROI ). #3 CHINA RIDER rounds out the tri.  OFF TURF: 2-1-5-8-6

 

 Race 9

1.Now a Factor ( AE )

2.Fast as Kitten ( AE )

3.English Channical

#16 NOW A FACTOR (AE) needs a lot of help to make it over to the races today, but should that be the case, has one of the highest adjusted turf figures in the bunch ( accomplished at a higher level, without the blinkers that are now a part of the makeup ). Been laid up a while, and the works are uninspiring, so look to see if this one is being given a vigorous warmup pre race. #14 FAST AS KITTEN (AE) ( uncoupled barnmate w/the above ) is another on the outside looking in, but has a couple of nice Beyers & finds himself at his lowest level to date. #1 ENGLISH CHANNICAL ( one half of the uncoupled Contessa entry ) is 3rd off the shelf & draws snugly.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-7-11-12-14(AE)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 RUN FOR BOSTON is backed by an 0-9 trainer stat, as Ryerson is just that /maiden claiming turf runners of breaks of 8-16 days.  NOTE: AS OF 2:15, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES THE #9 & #8 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

  


Belmont          ( Current )  37-206   ( $264.70 )    Beatable Favorites   4-12   ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %:  81-206  ( 39.3% )( As of Friday. morning ) 

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Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  5-37     ( $40.20 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 16-37     ( 43.2% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 51-329   ( $460.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 107-329  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )     Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1813-8494 ($14,613.00)  Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3125-8588( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1898-9062   ($15,432.20) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3288-9175( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017