KevinCoxItem


Well,at least we didn't have to change too many stats for today. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 5/31

 

 Race 1

1.Creative Princess

2.Mockery

3.Presumptuous

Just a handful for today's opener, but we'll only be giving credence to these three. #2 CREATIVE PRINCESS was as green as grass first time out, so Pletcher has given her some time off to work on a few issues. The good news, is that there's a positive jockey change in place today, and T.P is a tidy 4 for 9 with second time local starters under these conditions who missed the board less than five months ago ( 5-1 or lower today ). #3 MOCKERY has been working at the beautiful training center up here in Saratoga since her last start & has blinkers added today; expecting improvement. #1 PRESUMPTUOUS is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but we'd be remiss in excluding.

 

      Race 2

1.Jasmine's Gem 

2.Goldmakesmesmile

3.Currency Chaos

#4 JASMINE'S GEM is an "Adjusted Beyer Omnifig" ( as rare as the ivory billed woodpecker ) in that all her adj, figs supersede anything that anyone in the race has ever posted. Demolishes these with a clean trip. #7 CURRENCY CHAOS drops for the second straight time today, and although Cancel hasn't been doing much here, he's been tearing it up down at The Shore. #1 GOLDMAKESMESMILE has crashed the super in 7 of 10 when breaking from the innermost two slots & could spice things up beneath.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-5-6-7-2

 

Race 3

1.Merger of Banks

2.Hidden Bamboo

3.The Chamo

#3 MERGER OF BANKS has a high rate of speed & drops in class off a career best performance. The connections leave a lot to be desired, so make sure you demand a bit of value here. Slim margin. #5 HIDDEN BAMBOO is another entering today off a lifetime best, and also gets a positive jockey switch while having the wonder drug administered for the first time. #4 THE CHAMO completes our troika of runners coming in off a a top fig, and switches barns in a big way for today's go round. More than logical, especially with Jose hopping on. 

 

      Race 4

1.Votre Coeur

2.Pure Michigan

3.Questeq

#7 VOTRE COEUR is a nibbler by rote, but Nevin owns a tidy 4:2-2-0 mark with 2nd off the layoff/2nd off the claim turf routers at less than 14-1 ( $11 & $5 ). Meekest of selections. #2 PURE MICHIGAN hasn't been seen in a couple of St. Patrick's Days, but was doing good things when last in action & 21% clan is 3 for 8 with turf stayers off breaks of 100 days or more ( $11, $12 & $5 ). Castellano ( who's been cold of late ) sees fit to ride. #4 QUESTEQ as good as any for third.  OFF TURF: 6-4-3-7-2

 

      Race 5

1.Hills Pond

2.Cullum Road

3.Ride to the Sunset

#8 HILLS POND has some nice early zip and is 3:2-0-1 at the trip. Enters today off a career best numero, and while a bounce is always possible, we'll give him a tepid nod in another wide open event. #3 CULLUM ROAD shoots for the hat trick today and has essentially gotten better and better with each passing start. Hard to knock. #6 RIDE TO THE SUNSET is another that you can put an upwards arrow next to, and comes off a win over the inner turf course.  OFF TURF: 1-7(MTO)-6-3-4

 

Race 6

1.Data Dependent

2.Catharsis

3.She's All Skeet

#5 DATA DEPENDENT has a modicum of back class, is third off the L/O, and Chad Brown has won with both his Belmont starters when cutting back second off the shelf turf runners who missed the board in last ( $13 & $14 ). Just by looking at the running lines of the #2 CATHARSIS, one can see that she's figuring this game out right before your eyes. Been freshened up a bit since the Hallandale purchase, and Carmouche takes over for his main barn. Logical. #4 SHE'S ALL SKEET has stepped up her game in a big way over her last triad, and as she was bred for a mere $7,500 ( while banking more than 100K ), this one is up for sale for the first time today; picks up Saez.  OFF TURF: 6-5-8-7-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 

1.Turco Bravo ( Chi )

2.Going Strong 

3.Combat Controller

#3 TURCO BRAVO (CHI) sure is an old warhorse, huh? Gallant gelding makes his 69th start today, and although it's a long drink of waters between wins, we're assuaged by the fact that the 12% trainer is 6-19 with locally based mid level dirt stock who missed the party 18-36 days ago ( positive return on investment ). #2 GOING STRONG is hiked up 25% today after a solid second place showing on 5/5, and Gullo is a crisp 4 fer 11 with 2nd off the claim runners of this ilk who hit the board less than 52 days back ( $2.69 ROI ). #6 COMBAT CONTROLLER is a sharp 5:2-1-2 at the dx., is 1 for 2 right here & 1 for 3 off this sorta layoff scenario. 

 

 Race 8

1.Navajo

2.Greatreviews

3.Alberobello

#6 NAVAJO hasn't been seen since the fall, but owns a win over the strip, and Dutrow knows how to get 'em ready, as evident by his 3 for 6 mark with allowance dirt dashers in the 140-280 day bracket ( $10, $5 & $3 ). Rosario with a little familiarity aboard this one. #5 GREATREVIEWS has been befallen by some layoff lines, but put up a big number in the score down at Gulfstream, and pre layoff pilot returns. #7 ALBEROBELLO was backed off a bit after the snazzy maiden breaker at Keeneland, but fired off a bullet at Palm Beach a few weeks ago & is a threat if sound. 

 

 Race 9

1.Sardonyx 

2.Chenais' Posse

3.Justenuff Hope

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #8 SARDONYX has improved over her last three, was a clear second in the most recent, is a "Double Beyer" play, and barn won both times they ran a 3rd off the shelf maiden claimer who hit the board in last. Appears strong. #3 CHENAIS' POSSE was vastly improved in the 2018 bow, and could move forward with that race under her girthstrap. #6 JUSTENUFF HOPE posted a decent number on the gramma last September, but has had a couple'a setbacks since; price addition. 

 


Belmont          ( Current )  37-197   ( $264.70 )    Beatable Favorites   4-12   ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %:  78-197  ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-34     ( $34.40 )      Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 15-34     ( 44.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-326   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-326  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )     Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8491 ($14,607.80)  Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3124-8585( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9059   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3287-9172( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017