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Profitable grand slam for us yesterday on a mess of a day.

I would like to extend my gratitude to all current members of the military, and all the families of those who have given their lives for this country, on this Memorial Day.

God bless you all. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 5/28 - Happy Memorial Day - God Bless our soldiers past and present.

 

 Race 1

1.My First Gal

2.Youth Gone Wild

3.I Admire You

#8 MY FIRST GAL has ben befallen by a consecutive troika of layoff lines, but when in action, the last two numbers were pretty decent. and rates the meekest of selections on this -- sighhhhh....all state bred Memorial Day card. #6 YOUTH GONE WILD hasn't been seen since turkey time, but has the best body of work in the field, and there's a recent bullet on display, which is always a positive sign for one who comes from off the pace. #9 I ADMIRE YOU has been troubled in both starts & could spice things up with the hood being added today.  OFF TURF: 6-10-3-4-11

 

      Race 2

1.Ragnar Lothbrok

2.Suas

3.Bourbon Did It

On our first draft of this race we were able to slice this group in half, and from that remaining quintet, two have decent ( albeit small ) formulator stats. #6  RAGNAR LOTHBROK ( a legendary Swedish Viking https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ragnar_Lodbrok ) hasn't shown much in the mornings, but is a half to a 10-29 dirt dasher ( 29K ), and sire won his lone two dirt attempts. Gullo has scoref with his only two first time starters under these particular conditions ( 5-1 or more ) with the winners coming back a whopping $47 & $28. #7 SUAS split the field in a game effort at 61-1 first time out down at Hallandale Beach, and has since been transferred up to Rudy's barn. That last part is of some relevance, as said conditioner is 2 fer 4 when being handed a dirt dasher & entering them at this level ( 35-100 days ). The winners came back $5 & $15, and Irad hops aboard. #1 BOURBON DID IT goes green to brown, 2 turns to one, nine hole to the wood, has been gelded since the last, and gets Franco in the irons; big shot.  NOTE: AS OF 12:42, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Fifty Five

2.Tizzelle

3.Epping Forrest

#9 FIFTY FIVE is in the best form of her life, sheds a whopping eight pounds, and 26% Brown is 13:6-2-3 with second off the L/O ungraded turf routers right here ( ITM in last ) @ 4-1 or less. There's a $2.73 ROI in that regards & Castellano won in his only pairing aboard this gal. #7 TIZZELLE shoots for the hat trick today & finished 2nd in her only second off the break try. Logical. #2 EPPING FORREST is another with good experience off this kind of layoff, as she won nicely a bit more than a year ago. Pilot from the last score returns.  OFF TURF: 2-4-1-3-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 4

1.Verdant Pastures

2.Highway Star

3.Holiday Disguise 

#1 VERDANT PASTURES gave up the ghost rather readily when last seen in December, but judging by this one's prior effort over the wet stuff, one would think he simply doesn't have a fondness for it. Baker backed off this one after that, and why not, as she has plenty of speed, likes to win, and only turned four last month. Charlie has a sweet 10:6-2-0 mark with ungraded dirt sprinters off sabbaticals of 60 days or more ( 16-1 or lower ) w/an ROI above four clams. Hoping for a pop-and-no-stop. Tough to argue with anyone diggin' the #2 HIGHWAY STAR in this spot. Millionairess always gives an honest account of herself, is a whopping 5 for 7 at Big Sandy, and gal has won both of her "2nd off the hiatus" attempts. Incorporate into all your action. #4 HOLIDAY DISGUISE has yet to miss a super & we won't rock the boat with that stat today. 

 

      Race 5

1.Courageous Change

2.Tequila Sunday

3.Saratoga Sass ( AE )

The owner/breeder of the #6 COURAGEOUS CHANGE told us at the Saratoga fall sale last year that he felt this horse could turf a bit, but unfortunately, the calendar got the better of her for a while. He was proven correct when gal closed out the superfecta in the initial turf foray at boxcar odds, despite going extremely wide. There are no bugs at Belmont today, so Jimmy Ferraro loses the seven pound allowance, but gets Alvarado, which is nice. ( Gunga galunga. ) Barn is a tidy 3:2-0-1 when going dirt to turf with sprinters at 20-1 or lower, with the winners coming back $9 & $17. #9 TEQUILA SUNDAY 's best performance came on the gramma way back when, and due to the calendar and an apparent injury, hasn't been able to give it another whirl since then. Watch out, suckah's ! #13 SARATOGA SASS (AE) need one to get the sniffles in order to face the starter, but should that be the case, would be drawing well and landing in a purdy soft spot.  OFF TURF: 1-4-6-10-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6

1.English Soul

2.Baby Boss

3.Split Time

We don't really have a good read on this heat, so be careful. #8 ENGLISH SOUL has won all three of her dirt starts ( one of them here, one of them off the layoff, and one of them with Franco ) & is 8-1. That's good enough for us. #2 BABY BOSS has gotten better with each passing start, and not only owns the best lifetime Beyer in the lot, but it was in her last race as well. Comprises one half of the uncoupled 'Miah entry. #7 SPLIT TIME shoots for the grand salami today. 

 

Race 7 

1.Aveenu Malcainu

2.Prescence of Mind

3.Inalienable Rights

Rare race analysis here where we're putting stats aside & going purely with a visual. Saw the last of the #6 AVEENU MALCAINU ( owned by good guy & Jai Alai fan, Al Gold ) from the rail at Aqueduct on Wood Day, and the horse was SCREAMING blinkers late in the game. They go on today, and if you notice, there's a tidy little work on 5/13. Book it. #1 PRESCENCE OF MIND had excuses in the last two & sheds some lb.'s while sliding into the pine; price play with Manny Man in the saddle. #9 INALIENABLE RIGHTS has done his best work at Big Sandy.  NOTE: AS OF 12:51, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 8

1.Mo Maverick

2.Voodoo Song

3.Offering Plan

#11 MO MAVERICK is 3 for 5 at the dx., 1 for 2 with Saez, & 2 for 3 over firm ground. We see nothing wrong with shooting for a price in a race such as this. #3 VOODOO SONG scored in his only "true" 3rd off the L/O attempt, and also won in her only try right here ( with Johnny aboard, as well ). Must respect the speed. #6 OFFERING PLAN is 8:3-2-2 right here, and Brown owns a tidy 4 for 8 record with local ungraded turf stayers off this sorta layoff scenario between even money & 3-1 ( $3.13 ROI ). As Castellano's new agent is affiliated with this barn, you can expect JJC to ride all out for them every single time for quite a while.  OFF TURF: 6-2-12(MTO)-1-10  NOTE: AS OF 1:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 9

1.Weekend Hideaway

2.Mr. Buff

3.T Loves a Fight

Today's 9th race is named after Commentator, and believe it or not, you can still see this classy runner IN PERSON up at Old Friends @ Cabin Creek in Saratoga. Please go say hi, as I saw a video of him on Twitter Saturday, and he looks great !!  #9 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY sure is quite the warhorse, huh? Eight year old owns a career 45:12-6-9 mark, and has done proportionately well right here, and yes -- still has all his parts. Love the draw, and go-to rider returns. #4 MR. BUFF is 2 for 5 over this oval and could be dangerous if able to shake free early on. #6 T LOVES A FIGHT is 1 for 2 off the bench.  NOTE: AS OF 12:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.   NOTE: AS OF 1:27, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 10-6-4.

 

 Race 10

1.Spring Folly 

2.Cumbria

3.Myhartblongstodady

#4 SPRING FOLLY was a game runner up behind a next out winner in the lone "second off the vacation" start, and from an itty bitty sampling, "The Mad Genius" is 3:2-1-0 when going 1X to 2X with his turf horsies off breaks of less than 62 days ( $11 & $8 ). #7 CUMBRIA apparently found the turf to her liking, as she snagged the sheepskin when switching to the green for he first time ( AND adding Lasix, which can't be discounted ). Double J is 4 for 6 when putting his maiden winners in a race like this ( @ 6-1 or lower ) w/an ROI of $4.21. #11 MYHARTBLONGSTODADY is a Chad Brown maiden breaker, so how the hell do we leave out?  OFF TURF:5-11-13(MTO)-10-4

 

Belmont          ( Current )  37-187   ( $264.70 )    Beatable Favorites   4-12   ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %:  74-187   ( 39.6% )

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Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-34     ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 15-34     ( 44.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-326   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-326  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )     Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8491 ($14,607.80)  Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3124-8585( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9059   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3287-9172( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017