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Not so hot on the top side yesterday, but our "unders" came through, as we had three exacta boxes ( $33, $63 & $59 ), three rolling daily doubles ( $83, $33 & $81 ) & two rolling pick three's ( $235 & $230 ).

Just a reminder that if you want selections & analysis for the Grade 1 Gamely & Grade 1 Gold Cup from Santa Anita, merely flip back one page. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #5 Ride On Faith  Race 4 - #3 Charnley River ( Aus )  Race 9 - #5 Gidu ( Ire )


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Belmont - 5/26

 

 Race 1

1.Dublin Leprechaun

2.Clonedsimmard

3.Crypto's Pick

#3 DUBLIN LEPRECHAUN was up the track in last, but in all honesty, turf really isn't this one's forte'. The dirt outings just prior to that were pretty good, compared to this lot, and we like the jockey change today. #4 CLONEDSIMMARD bested more than half the field in a similar spot a baker's dozen days ago, and Leah ( 11% day to day ) is a tidy 6:3-0-2 with runners of this ilk who hit the board less than 26 days ago & are beneath 20-1 today ( $13, $7 & $11 ). #7 CRYPTO'S PICK showed zippo in the career starter, but drops a ouch and ain't facing much for the show dough.

 

      Race 2

1.Classic Covey

2.Governor Malibu

3.Markitoff

#5 CLASSIC COVEY exits a race where the seven returnees have amassed a 7:2-1-0 collective mark ( from four different races ) with an average Beyer improvement of 1.4 points per starter. Slim edge here. #3 GOVERNOR MALIBU has a second & a third from as many "second off the shelf" attempts & may move up a bit with the first grass race under his girthstrap. #2 MARKITOFF has won his last two outside of stakes company, so should appreciate today's class relief.  OFF TURF: 3-5-4-2-1

 

Race 3

1.Arch Contender

2.Champagne Papi

3.A Lotta Wine

#3 ARCH CONTENDER has had some ugly running lines of late -- and is definitely a professional maiden -- but improved in a big way the last time going green to brown and takes a decent sized drop off a seven wide trip. Meek selection in a forgettable heat. #2 CHAMPAGNE PAPI has been a part of the action in 3 of 5 starts over a glib surface and is third off the layoff today. #4 A LOTTA WINE undergoes a gamut of changes this afternoon: T to D, 2X to one, drop in class, first time eye cups, and goes from Trevor yo Javy, which is like getting first time Lasix. Note that this one has gone 37-41-47-51 in his dirt forays, so who truly knows where the ceiling is?  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 RIDE ON FAITH fills the bill, as Zito is a mere 1 for 8 with maiden claiming dirt dashers who hit the board last out ( < 2-1 ), and when you take into account that the "average" for that sampling is at least 3 for 8, well, we'll side against at 3/5.

 

      Race 4

1.All Clear

2.Tiffany's Freud

3.Bartleby

#2 ALL CLEAR ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ), tries the gramma for the first time today, and although not particularly well bred for it, won his only start when up for sale. The hood goes on now, and pre-layoff pilot comes back. #1 TIFFANY'S FREUD hasn't finished in the top half of the field in four straight, but lone score came at this trip & over this strip, & a hungry journeyman takes over now. #6 BARTLEBY has a pair of runner up finishes when cutting back from two turns to one, and his best work has come over this strip. Figure earned from the last says he belongs.  OFF TURF: 3-6-2-1-5  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 CHARNLEY RIVER (AUS) will be led over by a conditioner who's 0-6 w/mid level turf dashers returning in less than 100 days at 3-1 or less.

 

      Race 5

1.Berger

2.Ten Twenty Nine

3.Flatexcel

Since winning at first asking a bit more than a year ago, #3 BERGER has beaten just three home in as many spread out starts, and Casse does the smart thing and drops this one in class in today's 5th. The good news, is that 18% shot caller is 15-47 ( 32% ) when doing such, and he secures the services of JJC for this one's return to action. Take a peek in the paddock. #4 TEN TWENTY NINE is a nibblah by nature ( 22:1-9-2 ) and seems like a sensible "unders" candidate with those three straight ITM finishes ( AND being 12-1 today ). #7 FLATEXCEL got the job done in the lone 3rd off the shelf try, and poses a major threat with that speed from today's outside post.

 

Race 6

1.Appealing Briefs

2.Collective Effort

3.Bad Guy

#7 APPEALING BRIEFS is steadily creeping into that region of maiden territory that we don't like to see, but his finest work has come at this locale, and it's difficult to argue with the collection of speed figures. #2 COLLECTIVE EFFORT is another one with an impressive resume' ( 9 of 10 in the money ), and from a tiny sampling, Handal is 2 for 4 when adding blinks to turf runners ( non maidens ). Franco in sublime form these days. #4 BAD GUY took the overland route in the most recent, but still gamely snagged 20% of the purse at more than 50-1 odds for Fragoso. The three ( albeit spread out ) turf figs are 55-65-74, and you may still get some nice odds here.  OFF TURF: 2-1A(MTO)-8-9-7

 

Race 7 

1.Purely Lucky

2.Mentality

3.Hannah's Smile

#5 PURELY LUCKY has done very little wrong over the green stuff ( 5:1-3-0 ) and should appreciate being moved off the pine today. Meeeeeeeekest of selections in a heat we have no real feel on. #8 MENTALITY has a win, a third, and a fourth ( by less than a length ) in her troika of turf tries, and owns a nice touch of back class as well. W.W. ( 22% on the norm ) is 10:4-3-1 with second off the shelf turf dashers at this level ( 5-1 or beneath ), & has a positive ROI in that regards. #11 HANNAH'S SMILE hasn't been seen since the fall, but did some nice work last year, and owns a 2 fer 3 mark right here at Elmont; obvious threat if fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 1A(MTO)-8-13-3-5

 

 Race 8

1.Big Guy Ian

2.Cerro ( Ire )

3.Abounding Legacy

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #3 BIG GUY IAN is clearly the speed of this affair, and although has given up the ghost late in the game in his last three, drops a couple'a pegs today, and is backed by a nice Formulator stat which says that RRR is 6-14 with runners fitting all this criteria off breaks of 13-27 days ( in the tri last out ) at odds > 1.25-1 & < 3.75-1 ( $2.47 ROI ). His race to lose. #7 CERRO (IRE) has been a popular item at the claim box of late ( purchased in his last half dozen when up for sale ), and with good reason too, as this eight year old usually gives an honest account of himself. The slightly disconcerting news tho, is that this fella ( who once faced Ord ) has been entered for a lifetime low today after two disappointing outings. Tossing in for old times sake. #1 ABOUNDING LEGACY has crashed the super in 4 of 5 when breaking from the inside & is another who's never seen these depths.

 

 Race 9

1.Black Stetson

2.Ambassador Jim

3.Curlin's Honor

#2 BLACK STETSON ( dig it ) hung up a lifetime best numero when going over the lawn for the first time six weeks ago, and did so in stakes company at 18-1. 334 Tomlinson figure tells us that it was probably legitimate, and ( from the teensiest of samplings ) trainer is 2 for 2 with turf sprinters off a win. #6 AMBASSADOR JIM had juice added for the beginning of his 3YO campaign ( as McL. does with a good number of his stock ) & missed by less than a length over at Ozone Park. Should fare better with that bottom put into him. #3 CURLIN'S HONOR went all the way when spotted on the Canadian poly on Derby weekend, and you know how we feel synthetic translates to the sod. Nomadic sort ( treks to his fifth different venue in as many outings ) has won all three dashes & has Castellano now calling the shots.  OFF TURF: 3-1(MTO)-5-4-6  We'll make the #5 GIDU (IRE) our BEATABLE FAVORITE here, as Pletcher is 0-12 with ungraded turf sprinters in the 57-115 day bracket.

 

 Race 10

1.Carmine's Honor

2.Mickey T

3.Cross Multiply

#1 CARMINE'S HONOR showed just a hint of early hoof when switching surfaces for the 1st time, but has the hood removed this afternoon, and judging by the swift move on 5/16 ( which may have come sans blinkers ) -- maybe he'll appreciate the equipment change. #7 MICKEY T has the best last race Beyer in the lot & is tough to leave off any ticket. #1A CROSS MULTIPLY had a solid showing in a maiden special weigh turf dash up north last year, and although that's a lot of water under the Tappan Zee, with maidens, we permit ourselves to go anywhere in their P.P.'s, as they're maidens for a reason after all. For triple purposes, we'll use the #2 BLESSED HONOR.  OFF TURF: 1-5-4-9(MTO)-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:52, WITH THE #1 BEING SCRATCHED ( THIS MAY HAVE BEEN DONE TO GET THE #1A INTO THE RACE ) WE ARE MAKING THE #1A OUR TOP SELECTION.

 


Belmont          ( Current )  31-168   ( $227.60 )    Beatable Favorites   2-9   ( 22.2% )   Favorites Win %:  62-168   ( 36.9% )( As of Sat. morning )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-34     ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 15-34     ( 44.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-326   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-326  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )     Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8491 ($14,607.80)  Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3124-8585( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9059   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3287-9172( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017