KevinCoxItem


One was the loneliest number for us here yesterday, but we promise not to lose two more than that today.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 5/25

 

 Race 1

1.Moment of Triumph

2.Hug the Rail

3.Madeline's Hope

#3 MOMENT OF TRIUMPH bested more than half the field against slightly tougher down at Keeneland in last, and although a nibblah by nature ( 19:1-2-7  ), we're assuaged by the fact that Diodoro is a snazzy 7 for 12 when entering new acquisitions in mid level dirt events right here @ 10-1 or lower ( 2-4 fortnights off ). The ROI for that sampling is $3.66, and Cohen been trying hard. #6 HUG THE RAIL turned in a career best number four weeks ago, and switches back to the member of the Lezcano family that's more apt to try hard for minor spoils. #6 MADELINE'S HOPE as bad as any for the show dough.

 

      Race 2

1.Junipero Avenue

2.The Postmaster

3.Odie

#8 JUNIPERO AVENUE has a couple of decent moves on the docket for today's overture, and we like that they were on the poly, which we always feels translates well tho the sod. Slim margin in a wide open 100K mdspwt. #4 THE POSTMASTER has just a touch of turf pedigree working for him, but Franco is in the best form of his life, and there are no world beaters in here. #1 ODIE fought the good fight in the career starter when procuring 20% of the purse down in Kentucky 44 days back, and is probably a bit better bred for the green than the brown, so I wouldn't be surprised if there was a move forward today. Using, but can't afford to break 6th from the inside today.  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-6-9

 

Race 3

1.Messi

2.Silverwave ( GB )

3.Kurilov ( Chi )

What a fun, challenging optional claimer this is !! #3 MESSI hasn't scored in nearly two years, but is 2 for 2 on this course with Johnny V. aboard, and you may get an elevated price here given the higher profile entrants signed on. #6 SILVERWAVE (GB) ( one half of the uncoupled Brown entry with our next selection ) is 2 for 5 in second off the L/O attempts, 2 for 3 at the trip, and Castellano ( who fired his agent the other day ) takes over. #2 KURILOV (CHI) has that nice type of "declining" record that we love to see ( 15:6-4-2 ) and owns some back class. Big number put up over a firm turf course back in February.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-7-5

 

      Race 4

1.Mercurian

2.Simona

3.My Lightnin Strike

#4 MERCURIAN has steadily improved with each & every start, topping it off with back to back tallies over this strip. Always liked animals shedding lb.s' after a score, and this filly is in prime position to get Toscano off the schneid. #5 SIMONA is another one on the upswing ( four straight ), and we love the fact that this one more than superseded hi turf expectations in the last ( 216 Tomlinson ), with a career best performance. The blinks go back on today, and you can be a mite forgiving of the flop in the prior outing when they were affixed, as that was was back when. #3 MY LIGHTNIN STRIKE drops to a career low today.

 

      Race 5

1.Fast Check

2.Dirty

3.Ventry Bay

#4 FAST CHECK has been a part of the triple in 9 of 10 ( 6 of 6 on the gramma ), and won off an 11 month layoff ( with a tremendous DRF Formulator stat in play that afternoon ) while being claim protected. There's another tidy trainer angle in play here, as Servis is a never nervous 6:5-0-1 with second off the claim/second off the layoff turf dashers at l8-1 or < ( $3.70+ ROI ). #6 DIRTY ( by 'Martini' -- ya get it? ) flattened badly in the first start against winners, but may not have dug the soft turf that day. Papa Englehart doubles his normative 25% batting average with locally based runners of this ilk beneath the 9-1 watermark & has a $3.22 return on investment there as well. #5 VENTRY BAY has a placing & a showing from as many second off the shelf forays, so we'll slide in underneath.  OFF TURF: 7(MTO)-5-9-1(MTO)-1A

 

Race 6

1.Lion in Wait

2.Sheputaspellonme

3.Summer Squeeze

#5 LION IN WAIT has gone pillar to post in three of his last four grass attempts ( with the lone misstep being a poor ride by Maragh ), and Cox ( no relation ) is a sublime 7 for 9 with 3rd off the absence turf stayers entering off a score that are 5-1 or beneath ( big time R.O.I. as well ). #1 SHEPUTASPELLONME is seemingly figuring things out with each passing start, can rate or send, draws snugly, and gets a big time rider change today. Sensible. #9 SUMMER SQUEEZE went all the way when going long on the lawn 29 days in the rear, & is as good as any for the show $.  OFF TURF: 6-1-7-4(MTO)-9

 

Race 7 

1.Lightworker

2.Magari

3.Pursuing Justice

Eight signed on, but we'll only give credence to these three. #3 LIGHTWORKER improved from the first start to the second when ambitiously shipped up to Saratoga by C-Squared. but then as often happens with the babies, was sent to the shelf for one reason or two others. Four year old has a maturity edge over several in here, and will be a factor if fully primed. #7 MAGARI was a slightly troubled, but decently clear runner up in the second off the layoff deal, but note that the bandages went on that day, so take a gander pre-race if possible. #2 PURSUING JUSTICE has solid figaros and takes the biggest drop in the game today. No worse than 3rd here, for all you show bettors out there.

 

 Race 8

1.Forward Motion

2.Ethan Hunt

3.Outrageous Bet

#8 FORWARD MOTION was dead game when procuring the diploma at The Big A five weeks ago and has fired off an exceptional workout since then. Rice is nice with allowance turf stock who snagged the sheepskin 25-48 days back, as she owns a 5:4-1-0 ledger with that type, and just look at the mutuels: $18, $5, $16 & $9. #7 ETHAN HUNT put forth an honest effort when switching to the gramma for the first time ( 79 Beyer ), so maybe this'll be what it takes to get him through the A1X ranks. #3 OUTRAGEOUS BET missed by only a noggin' in his lone 3rd off the L/O attempt, and gets an upgrade in the pilot department to Junior today.  OFF TURF: 7-5(MTO)-9-6(MTO)-8

 

 Race 9

1.Frontier Market

2.Tapit High

3.Labeq

#11 FRONTIER MARKET is your obvious deserving chalk in this spot, what with the gaudy numbers & high powered connections. If you needed more than that, Brown is 12:5-1-6 with second off the break Elmont runners fitting this criteria ( below 6-1 ) who crashed the party in last.  #7 TAPIT HIGH is a bad actor at the gate, but showed vast improvement when going from brown to green second time out, and may like getting off the wood, as Cohen can pick his path should their be another slow onset. #12 LABEQ fought the good fight when taking a spin over the blades for the 1st time in late April, and breeding ( Tapit over a Storm Cat mare ) tells us that there may be even more upside than that.  OFF TURF: 12-11-7-3-14(MTO) 

 


Belmont          ( Current ) 29-159   ( $217.50 )   Beatable Favorites   2-9   ( 22.2% )   Favorites Win %:  60-159   ( 37.7% )( As of Friday 1 P.M. )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-34     ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 15-34     ( 44.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-326   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-326  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.3% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )     Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8491 ($14,607.80)  Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3124-8585( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9059   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3287-9172( 35.8% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017