KevinCoxItem


Just a couple to close out the week on Sunday.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 5/16

 

 Race 1

1.Acorn Street

2.Free Kitty

3.Equal Rights

#7 ACORN STREET was plucked out of the last for half a C-Note back at turkey time, and got sent to the shelf for one reason or another afterwards. They don't give too many vacations in this business, so obviously you have to take a good look pre race. From an itty bitty sampling, Cox has won with both his first off the claim routers at this level, with both of 'em paying six clams. #2 FREE KITTY has excellent speed, but is a nibbler by nature, as evident by that 10:M-5-2 lifetime mark. Mixed signals. #4 EQUAL RIGHTS bested more than half the field first time out, and obviously you expect a Chad Brown runner to improve second out; must incorporate.  OFF TURF: 6-4-1-2-3

 

      Race 2

1.Go Big Or Go Home

2.Truly a Moon Shot

3.Tale of Mist

#7 GO BIG OR GO HOME has been in the back half of the field in his last duet, so Diodoro does the right thing and drops this one down in class today. Over the last five years, he happens to be a groovy 12 for 23 w/ his locally stabled mid level dirt platers coming off breaks of less than four dozen days at odds beneath 7-1. The ROI for that sampling is $3.84, and of course, we dig the draw. #5 TRULY A MOON SHOT has hit the board in his last four starts over a fast track, and is confidently hiked up in class today in the first start for Rudy. #4 TALE OF MIST has done his best work right here and has a win & a third from as many starts when going from two turns to one.  NOTE: AS OF 12:31, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Lion in Wait

2.B Three

3.Gia Michael

#5 LION IN WAIT is another who's dropped in class after a couple of disappointing efforts, and there's a near perfect trainer stat in play here, as 27% barn is 7:6-1-0 with 2nd off the break mid level turf stayers at 3-1 or under ( < 25 days ). There's a positive ROI in that regards and Johnny had a positive experience with this one in the fall. #4 B THREE split a tougher field right here a dozen days back and makes sense from a Beyer perspective. #1 GIA MICHAEL is a bit light from a number aspect, but always gives a good account of himself and we'll toss beneath because of such.  OFF TURF: 4-5-1-6-2

 

      Race 4

1.Panama Ed

2.My Pirate

3.Infinity Squared

#3 PANAMA ED shoots for the strung out hat trick today, and papa Englehart is a snazzy 13:7-2 when stepping up dirt dashers 50% or more who won their most recent & are 5-1 or beneath today ( positive ROI ). Seems solid right back. #4 MY PIRATE is dropped down a bit today after back to back disappointing efforts & has done well at the trip. #6 INFINITY SQUARED as good as any for the show bread.

 

      Race 5

1.My Roxy Girl

2.Camorra

3.Frosty Gal

Seven entered here, but we'll only give credence to the top two. If you read the conditions of this race, apparently ( other than the AIX part ) it was written with one or two in mind. We're betting that #3 MY ROXY GIRL was the beneficiary, and why not? Hard knocking gal has helped to fill the entry box 14 times in 10 months ( having crashed the tri in 11 of 'em ), and y'all know we've been big admirers of this little peanut along the way. Friedman owns a nice 4:3-1-0 mark with runners fitting this criteria off absences of 17-36 days ( 8-1 or lower ), w/the winners returning $18, $4 & $15. #5 CAMORRA gave it the ol' college try in her first tri versus winners, but fell just a length and a half shy despite setting all the fractions. T.P. ( 24% day to day ) wipes 'em clean with allowance dirt runners at Bel at 7-2 or lower ( ITM < 58 days back ), as he's 12-31 with that type. #1 FROSTY GAL gets a major jockey change for Sackatoga Stables.  NOTE: AS OF 12:38, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6

1.Tequila Sunday

2.Gentle Annie ( AE )

3.Galway Girl ( AE )

There is an interesting stat her with the #11 TEQUILA SUNDAY. David Donk is just 5 for 60 when going dirt to turf with any runner in less than 25 days, but if you dive down the rabbit hole a bit, he's 6:4-1-0 when adding "maiden claimers at < 20-1 or less " to the mix. Those winners came back $19, $14, $7 & $8, and the lone turf tri for this gal was a lifetime best. #15 GENTLE ANNIE (AE) hasn't shown much so far, but her best two numbers were on the turf and in a sprint, so perhaps when we mix "the chocolate & peanut butter" together, we'll come up with something tasty. Needs help to draw in. #13 GALWAY GIRL (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but isn't so far fetched in this kinda race.  OFF TURF: 11-2-1-8-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 

1.Out of Trouble

2.No Hayne No Gayne

3.Sugar Mags

#6 OUT OF TROUBLE was given a respite after winning two in a row ( her first legit break in her career ) & is a deserving favorite if fully cranked up. #8 NO HAYNE NO GAYNE is 1 for 2 off the L/O and five runners from the last went 2-1-0 in their next outings ( from four different races ). There was an average speed figure improvement of 5.2 points for those runners, and this one won both her starts when breaking from the outside. Watch out, suckahs! #7 SUGAR MAGS may come along late for a share.  OFF TURF: 4-9(MTO)-5-8-3(MTO)

 

 Race 8

1.Mighty Zealous

2.Tribecca

3.Runaway Lute

We're gonna go with the Gary-Gary exacta here, because it's a hundred o'clock in the morning as we type, and how wrong can we be ? #9 MIGHTY ZEALOUS is proving to be a rare successful Contessa claim, as this one has tripled the investors 25K purchase since the original investment, and Gary ( who gave me my first win as a jockey agent ) bests his normative 10% batting average with optional dirt sprinters in the < 3 day range ( ITM last ) as he's 16:6-3-3- with 'em. #1 TRIBECCA shut down production rather readily in last, but won his only try over this strip, is 2 for 5 when breaking from the pine ( none of those scores are overlapping ), and 8% Sciacca is 15:4-4-2 with optional dirt dashers at Elmont in the 16-32 day bracket ( 15-1 or < ) with the victorious ones coming back $29, $9, $13 & $18.  We're incorporating. Oh, what the hell, let's put another Gary horse ( #3 RUNAWAY LUTE ) in the third spot.

 

 Race 9

1.Hidden Bamboo

2.Gio Lucky

3.Big Auk

#6 HIDDEN BAMBOO has nice figs, drops to a low, and catches a fast track for the second time. Mild edge. #5 GIO LUCKY has been ITM in all four dirt starts, and what the gosh darn is wrong with that ?? #8 BIG AUK finished 2nd in this race two fortnights back & we see no reason to exclude today.  NOTE; AS OF 12:48, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-6-11.

 

Belmont          ( Current )   19-106  ( $157.60 )  Beatable Favorites   2-8   ( 25.0% )  Favorites Win %:  38-106  ( 35.9% )( As of Weds. morning ) 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )   Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )   Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-32    ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 13-30    ( 42.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8489 ($14,607.80)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3124-8583( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9057   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3287-9170( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017