KevinCoxItem


Profitable three bagger on the day yesterday, as well as a $291 exacta box.

Want to thank all of our readers here for an all time Belmont high in the readership department on Saturday. Appreciate your loyalty.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 5/13

 

 Race 1

1.Monteleone

2.The Caretaker

3.Mr. Fixit

#4 MONTELEONE has been 1-2-3 in his last quartet, and is second off the L/O today while being the recipient of a tremendous rider change today. All runners from the last came back to improve their speed figures by an average of 3.8 Beyer pints next time out, so expecting a nice effort today. #6 THE CARETAKER is a nibbler by rote ( 12:1-4-3 ) and has hit the board in his last quartet, so when you factor in McCarthy's cold streak, this has the makings of a legit "unders" candidate. #1 MR. FIXIT is 2 for 3 & is another who's second off the shelf today. Switches to Cohen, who's been trying real hard since his return. 

 

      Race 2

1.Guy American Dream

2.Can'tweallgetalong

3.Irish Marauder

#7 GUY AMERICAN DREAM finished 4th against similar about a half'a month ago, but fell just a neck short that afternoon, and as this is a May bred, there's definitely room for improvement. #3 CAN'TWEALLGETALONG showed zippo in the most recent, but is entered at an all time low & a 24% pilot hops on. #2 IRISH MARAUDER hasn't been in action in two Christmas', but was heading in the right direction before being laid up, and catches a fast track for just the second time. Franco enticed to ride.  NOTE: AS OF 1:37, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 7-2-1.

 

Race 3

1.Engage 

2.A Different Style 

3.Forced

#4 ENGAGE has yet to miss an exacta, is 3:2-1-0 at the trip, and Jose Ortiz is quite familiar with this one. Sensible selection in a tight quintet. #5 A DIFFERENT STYLE has excellent zip, draws well, and can make amends for the recent fade in today's second off the L/O attempt. #3 FORCED was set down in an awful DQ at Philadelphia Park after blitzing A1X foes by more than eight last time out, and although we hate to see Lasix being added here, we're somewhat assuaged by the four pound drop in weight as well as Prado possibly going for his 7,000th win today. 

 

      Race 4

1.Santo Antonio

2.Panic Attack

3.Carthon

We won't be going any deeper than our top two for all our rolling action.  After finishing second at big odds in his career starter, #3 SANTO ANTONIO apparently found the jump into stakes company just a mite too tough, and is back where he belongs today. Rudy Rod -- 19% on the norm -- is a sublime 16:8-3-1-2 with Belmont maiden special weight dirt runners returning in less than 42 days ( 5-1 or lower ). The ROI for that study is $3.41, and there's a sub category of 3 for 3 in the more specific 2-4 week bracket. #2 PANIC ATTACK displayed improved speed in the most recent ( note the identical 47.14 time in the longer mile start, followed up by a better finish ), and it's most definitely his race to lose. If our top choice falters, we hope this one gets the candy for our friends Paul & the Laderers. #5 CARTHON ( second half of the uncoupled entry w/'Attack ) was a lively runner up when put in for a tag for the first time, and we don't consider this a hike in class, so definitely incorporate beneath. 

  

      Race 5

1.Giant Ending

2.First Tomoe

3.Desirous

The only other time #8 GIANT ENDING went from green to brown, a replication of the prior race figure was the end result, so right off the get go, the adjusted 52.2 from last is okay. Granted, this one is a nibbler by rote, but we like the 7:1-3-1-2 ledger when starting from the outermost two slots ( 13:0-4-1-3 otherwise ) as some horses do their best work when in the clear. Positive trainer change today and Double D sticks around. #5 FIRST TOMOE drops to an all time low and tallied in her lone "third off the L/O" try. Using. #2 DESIROUS shed the hood & has a win over the strip; as good as any for the show dough.  NOTE: AS OF 1:43, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6

1.Rugbyman

2.Wisely

3.Candygram

#4 RUGBYMAN closed gamely to get 10% of the purse in the overture on April the 13th, and over the last 60 months, Motion is a lovely 6 for 14 with second timers who crashed the fiesta first time out ( 22-44 days ago ) & are 7-2 or lower today. 64 ounce drop in weight today helps matters as well. #1 WISELY is the only other runner we'll be using here based on the solid two outings after a troubled debut. Expecting a big effort on the dirt today with that 388 Tommy staring right atcha. We can't pass on a chance for a 'Blazing Saddles' reference, so we'll slide the #6 CANDYGRAM ( "...for Mr. Mongo." ) into the 3rd spot. Colt has some nice early hoof & decent figaros as well. Oh....here's the aforementioned clip... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8ciVBQixpU .

 

Race 7 

1.Radiant Beauty

2.Salsa Bella ( Fr )

3.Ferdinanda 

#7 RADIANT BEAUTY was a sharp runner up in a nearly identical spot at the Big A when returning off a 5 1/2 month sabbatical, has a win right here, and Lezcano one of the best front end turf riders around. Grab her by the rump to get the glory. #6 SALSA BELLA (FR) was a bit rank in the Florida Oaks down in Oldsmar, and ended up finishing off the board as the chalk, but can make up for that with today's drop in class ( & a 3rd off the L/O try ). #1 FERDINANDA has done wonderful things since being transferred over the care of Barclay Tagg, as she fell just a honker shy of a hat trick at GP on 3/31. Will save all the ground for sure, but needs to find a hole late.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-3-7   NOTE: AS OF 1:59 P.M., DUE TO THE TRACK BEING "GOOD", THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 8

1.Take It to Scale

2.Speke

3.Honor Up

#1 TAKE IT TO SCALE looked professional in winning the first time outta the box a month ago, and the 409 Tomlinson ( and $200,000 auction tag ) says to us that there's most likely room for improvement here. Mild edge in a tough A1X heat. #7 SPEKE has improved with each passing start, culminating with an open length score against maidens on March 10th. For some reason Pletcher switches to Johnny today, and you know we're not fans of a jock change after a win, but this one figures nonetheless. #8 HONOR UP faded readily when attempting two turns ( and graded company ) for the first time, but that was off an elongated break, so let's not judge too harshly. Toss in at double digit odds.

 

 Race 9

1.Psychic Energy

2.Battle in Seattle ( Fr )

3.Strong Side

There are a couple of extremely strong Formulator angles in play for today's 9th, and as it's 2:12 A.M. ( and to avoid falling asleep at the keyboard again---drool and all ), let's get right to 'em... #4 PSYCHIC ENERGY: ( 3 for 6 at this trip...0-7 @ other distances ) will be led over by Linda Rice, who's a sensational 9:7-1-0 with second off the layoff allowance turf runners who won less than 38 days ago. The ROI for that sampling is more than seven clams, and Velazquez is 2 for 2 in tandem with this one. #12 BATTLE IN SEATTLE (FR) has done some okay work over in the land of love & grapes, and now makes his first start for Motion, who has a crisp stat of his own worth mentioning. Over the last 260 weeks, he happens to be 6 for 8 when being handed a foreign shipper for the first time, giving him Lasix, and spotting him on the sod off a break of 250-400 days ( 10-1 or less ). The winners came back $18, $6, $7, $15, $15 & $10, and this one has also been gelded since the last. #5 STRONG SIDE put it all together in the most recent, and we have no qualms about using a maiden breaker at 30-1 odds, as sometimes once the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while.  OFF TURF: 6-8-5-13(MTO)-3

 

 Race 10

1.Mr. Skittles

2.Battle of Saratoga

3.Thank You So Much

#4 MR. SKITTLES has only finished in the first half of the field but once in seven starts, but has gone 16-DNF-37-46 in his outings over a fast surface, and 11% barn is 2 for 7 when going green to brown with their dashers returning in less than 16 days ( $8 & $38 ). #6 BATTLE OF SARATOGA has some gaudy numbers, but is no lock, given the second off the L/O ( possible bounce ? ) status here. Using in a few rollers, but will side against upstairs. #5 THANK YOU SO MUCH posted a lifetime best # off a respite and returns sans pistachios.  NOTE: AS OF 2:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont          ( Current )   17-96  ( $145.40 )  Beatable Favorites   2-8   ( 25.0% )     Favorites Win %:  36-96   ( 37.5% )( As of Sunday morning )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )   Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )   Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-32    ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 13-30    ( 42.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8489 ($14,607.80)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3124-8583( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9057   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3287-9170( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017