KevinCoxItem


Just a couple of winners yesterday.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #1 Skyler's Scramjet


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Belmont - 5/12

 

 Race 1

1.Arthur's Hope

2.A True Giant

3.Get Game

#3 ARTHUR'S HOPE has built up an 11:8-2-0 record down at Presidente Remon ( where I once went to scout jockeys before I became an agent ), and right off the bat, any horse who wins like that is okay in our book. Colt has won his only start after a L/O, and we like that this one is brought up from Maryland for today's North American debut. #2 A TRUE GIANT went all the way when starting things out a month ago, and is logical once again. #5 GET GAME lost by just a half in his only start off the shelf, and lone win came beneath today's pilot.  NOTE: AS OF 1:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH AND THE TRACK BEING MUDDY, OUR AMNDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 3-1-5.

 

      Race 2

1.Shiloh Lane 

2.Diplomatic Shaft

3.Salsa Jack 

#2 SHILOH LANE has posted a steady stream of numbers, and not only gets in at the lightest impost of his career, but is backed by a strong DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 1,826 days, Mott is a saucy 17:7-3-1 with locally based turf stayers making this kind of drop off breaks of 20-40 days ( OTB in last ). There's a $2.80+ ROI for that sampling, and Johnny V. is signed on. #5 DIPLOMATIC SHAFT flopped in the recent dirt try, but that's not really his bag, as the prior dirt attempt shows us. That may be a false running line, as this one has put forth two back to back decent turf tries just before that, and perhaps Maker doesn't want to lose this one just yet. #11 SALSA JACK has the hood added & is available for purchase for the first time today.  OFF TURF: 1A-4-11-13(MTO)-10

 

Race 3

1.Swing and Sway

2.Holiday Disguise 

3.Chalon

#5 SWING AND SWAY has that type of "declining" record that we've grown to love along the way ( 15:5-3-1 ) as it shows she knows where the line is. Numbers are a might light, but 14% shedrow is 8:3-2-1 w/graded dirt dashers who scored 23-47 days ago & are 20-1 or lower today. Mild choice in a tight event. #6 HOLIDAY DISGUISE is 2 fer 2 here, 1 fer 1 with Irad, and was a well clear runner up in the lone start when breaking from the outside. #2 CHALON rarely gives a bad effort, owns a win over the strip, & has a win & a third from as many "second off the L/O" attempts. 

 

      Race 4

1.Ferrad's Party

2.Singapore Trader

3.Scatsuku 

#5 FERRAD'S PARTY had an eventful comebacker in the most recent, when ducking in the gap before being pulled up. There's been a couple of pedestrian moves for this one since ( one of them for the state vet, most likely ), and is reunited with Joel today, with whom this gelding earned his best #. Meeeeeeek selection. #10 SINGAPORE TRADER hasn't been seen since last summer, but has been gelded since then, and is a threat given some maturity points from the lone turf try. #8 SCATSUKU rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 1-5-6-11-4   

 

      Race 5

1.Tombelaine

2.English Minister

3.War Stroll

#10 TOMBELAINE was claimed for 100 big ones the first time he was put up for sale seven months ago, and as he's only earned 15% of that back ( less expenses ), the connections run up the white flag in entering this 6YO "horse " ( you hang on to them parts, buddy ! ) in for 62.5 today. The good news tho, is that his one owns a 3 for 5 mark right here ( 2-13 at other venues ), and the well monikered Cox is a whopping 12-26 with optional turf stock going short off breaks of 23-47 days ( $3.49 ROI ). Oh yeah--there's a 3:2-1-0 ledger when starting from the outermost two slots. #4 ENGLISH MINISTER was a fair runner up in this race about a month ago, but we'll leave beneath as McCarthy is not just a woeful 1-36 at this stand, but is making some awful decisions out there as well. #3 WAR STROLL finished just behind the above in last & won his only start over this course.  OFF TURF: 7-1-2-5-9

 

Race 6

1.Patch

2.Exulting

3.Souper Catch

#2 PATCH is a very popular animal, and with the cool back story it amazes me why some in the business want to knock this horse. Anyway, the back class is obviously there, and Pletcher is very unlikely to run such a high profile animal who may be "short" in a spot such as this. #3 EXULTING is second off the layoff today & 20% clan is 3 for 8 with such animals in a local allowance dirt deal ( ITM last ). #9 SOUPER CATCH has hit the board in 6 of 8 & recently lost his procreating abilities. Casse charge won his only start from an outside slot, and five runners from the most recent came back to amass a 3-0-1 mark in their next forays ( from four different heats ). 

 

Race 7 

1.Dream Doctor

2.Inheritthewind

3.Changewilldoyagood

#4 DREAM DOCTOR hasn't been seen since the fall, but is 3:1-1-0 off the shelf, ( 12:1-1-1 otherwise ) and both wins came right here; price play. Anyone who picks the winner of this race deserves a nice pat on the back. #9 INHERITTHEWIND fought through some trouble to get up at odds on over in Queens on 4/12 and rates consideration off that effort. #6 CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD has a bunch of speed & is another who's fared well here.  OFF TURF: 9-13(MTO)-1-4-14(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 2:45, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 6-9-1.

 

 Race 8

1.Great Stuff

2.Always Sunshine

3.Westwood

#4 GREAT STUFF showed zilch in the initial spin on the gramma, but if you can draw a line through that, then what you have is a consistent, classy sort with a win right here. Slight edge. #5 ALWAYS SUNSHINE is a lively 13:4-4-2 at the trip & is 3:1-1-0-1 off the bench. Hard knocking bay runner will need for a couple of things to go his way here to get the candy, but ain't hopeless at 12-1. #2 WESTWOOD is 2 for 2 in 2nd off the L/O attempts and will be forwardly placed early; must include.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 SKYLER'S SCRAMJET fills the bill, as Nevin is 0-9 with Elmont ungraded dirt equines off breaks of 69 days or less.  NOTE: AS OF 2:44, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 5-4-3.

 

 Race 9

1.A Raving Beauty ( Ger )

2.Lido

3.Inflexibility

#6 A RAVING BEAUTY makes her N.A. debut today for Brown, and of course he has decent stats with those of this type. ( 6:3-0-3 when being handed a foreign shipper off a hibernation of 126-252 days at 4-1 or lower ). Gal has done well in Germany, and of course ( like all these shippers ) gets in at the lightest impost of her career. #4 LIDO is a bit light from a #'s perspective, but shoots for the hat trick today & has done good things in this zip code. #2 INFLEXIBILITY -- uncoupled entrymate with the above -- is seemingly getting better and better, & has to be incorporated in all your action.  OFF TURF: 4-1-2-7-3

 

 Race 10

1.High North

2.Core Beliefs

3.Transistor

#6 HIGH NORTH obviously found the blinker addition to his liking when getting some class relief & scoring going away down in Oaklawn two fortnights ago. Granted, that was a two turn race, but this one by no means disgraced himself in the lone one turn tries when beginning his career last year, and this one may keep things rolling with some new found confidence. #1 CORE BELIEFS on the other hand, showed some vast improvement when having the eye cups removed in early March, and obviously will take a ton of money having finished 3rd to Justify in teh S.A. Derby. Sheds eight pounds off that effort and in Tyler we trust. #8 TRANSISITOR gets an acid test today, but has hit the board in his last octet, & is as good as any for the show bread.  NOTE: AS OF 2:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 11

1.Money Multiplier

2.One Go All Go

3.Bigger Picture

Today's featured race is the Grade 1 Man o'War, and for some info on this legendary Hall of Famer, feast your eyes on this ! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man_o%27_War  #10 MONEY MULTIPLIER is 2 for 5 off "legit" layoffs, 1 for 4 at the trip, and sheds some lb.'s while getting Lasix re-administered. Most timid of selections in an extremely competitive rendition of this event. #9 ONE GO ALL GO has hit the century mark in 4 of his last 5 while partaking in the exacta in 5 of 6. Speed kills, and there's not a lot of it signed on here. #8 BIGGER PICTURE is 7:4-2-0 at this locale and has fared decently in 3rd off the shelf attempts. Excellent value being offered here for one that is not that far behind the upper echelon.  OFF TURF: 7-6-2-1-3  NOTE: AS OF 2:56, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-9-8.

 

Belmont          ( Current )    14-85  ( $112.80 )  Beatable Favorites   2-7  ( 28.6% )     Favorites Win %:  34-85   ( 40.0% )( As of Sat morning ) 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )   Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )   Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-32    ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 13-30    ( 42.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8489 ($14,607.80)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3124-8583( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9057   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3287-9170( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017