KevinCoxItem


Big day for us here yesterday, as we got home the following rollers:

Four Daily Doubles of $19, $69, $183 & $219

Three Pick Three's of $85, $518 & $510

One Pick Four for $2,601

One Pick Five for $13,786

and two successful "Beatable Favorites" to boot !

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 5/11

 

 Race 1

1.Stag of Sylvia

2.Zechariah

3.Ten Eyck

#5 STAG OF SYLVIA has steadily improved in three starts for good guy John Hertler, who sure can use a win these days. Franco understandably rides for a higher profile barn here, but Double D is more than a capable replacement today. Let's get this grey gelding home. #3 ZECHARIAH bested more than half the field in the career starter, and the turf pedigree tells us that the number posted that afternoon was legit. J. Ortiz takes over for Cancel, which is a humongoid switch. #7 TEN EYCK was heading in the right direction when last seen in mid October, but then as so often happens with the babies, was sent to the shelf for one reason or another. Big shot if able to regain that form, but that's a big if.  OFF TURF: 6-3-2(MTO)-7-4

 

      Race 2

1.You Promise

2.Megalopsychia

3.Candy Road

We won't be going any deeper than these three for all our rolling action--not that they'll run 1-2-3, mind you, but that the winner will most likely come from this triumvirate. #1 YOU PROMISE is no doubt a professional maiden, but to quote Dennis Farina in 'Get Shorty', "Today's the bleeping day." Career best fast track number in last, 2 for 4 ITM when breaking from the pine ( 3-21 otherwise ), and with any luck, Kerry completes the "nice guy double". #3 MEGALOPSYCHIA ( "The greatness of the soul" ) was a troubled third in a similar spot back in March and is logical right back. #8 CANDY ROAD starts things out today for a barn that hasn't done much, but homebred has a maturity edge over a few signed on, and hard knocking papa ( retired after a win & a claim for $3,500 back in 2004 ) was 13 for 57 lifetime. ( Which means that daddy was still procreating at about 19 or so ! ) Needn't be much to hit the board here.

 

Race 3

1.Believe Indeed

2.Bonita Springs

3.Zeven

Watching a 'Bee Gees' special whilst typing away tonight. Yeah, that's right. You got a problem with that? #2 BELIEVE INDEED has essentially gotten better & better over her last nonet, and has been a part of the tri in her last half'a dozen. Castellano takes over today and this miss scored the last time she was available for purchase. Mild edge. #4 BONITA SPRINGS is 1 for 2 off the shelf ( with the win being at today's dx. ) and is reunited w/ J-L.O. today, under whom was the last time she had her photo taken. Interesting deal with the #1 ZEVEN here, as Chuck Simon is listed as the owner ( assuming it was a private purchase after the last ), but instead of training her where he's based down in Florida, he sends her up here to Bruce Levine. Why? Well, maybe he's trying to get her some softer ground, as I'm sure the "dirf" at Gulfstream is pretty chewed up these days. We'll toss underneath out of curiosity, especially as she's done good things with Dylan.  OFF TURF: 2-7-8-3(MTO)-1

 

      Race 4

1.Shahroze ( Ire )

2.Hills Pond

3.Devamani ( Fr )

#1 SHAHROZE (IRE) hasn't been seen since National Hangover Day, but gelding has a win and a second from as many starts off the bench ( Irad was aboard for one of them ), and Motion is a sharp 6 for 11 with allowance turf routers in the 80-175 day bracket T 5-1 or less ( $10, $10, $3, $5, $12 & $7 ). #3 HILLS POND is extremely light from a numbers aspect, but is one of only two in here that's a couple of starts clear of any L/O line, and Jersey Joe takes the assignment for a barn he's had success with. #6 DEVAMANI (FR) came from out of the clouds to just miss down in Kentucky & fared well in his lone "2nd off the hiatus" try. Adds weight, so we'll keep beneath.  OFF TURF: 1-4-5(MTO)-8-2

 

      Race 5

1.Cozzy Spring

2.Picture Day

3.No Need to Appeal

#6 COZZY SPRING has nice speed ( although is just average out of the gate ), has won 3 of 5 over a glib surface, and draws ideally for a clan that's off to a nice start this meet. #4 PICTURE DAY has been a part of the exacta in 7 of 8 dating back to last year, but is 0-4 right here; mixed signals. #1 NO NEED TO APPEAL has won right here in a second off the layoff try. That's good enough reason for us to chunk in.

 

Race 6

1.Fashion Week

2.Soar From Shadows

3.Complicit

#2 FASHION WEEK ( which did NOT start on Kentucky Derby Day, despite what they showed ya on the tube ) returns to action today after being laid up after the October 4th showing, and was slowly starting to figure things out before gettin' sidelined. Obvious threat is Shug has her ready, especially with piping hot Franco getting on. #3 SOAR FROM SHADOWS has been a vastly improved animal since being transitioned to the gramma, and her fifth different jockey in as many starts to date is a Hall of Famer. Should be coming late. #8 COMPLICIT has a maturity edge over several in here, and obviously you don't have to be too concerned about the recent hibernation, given the connections. Pre-layoff pilot returns, which we always like to see, and this is a must inclusion.  OFF TURF: 7-5-8-1-6

 

Race 7 

1.Javelin

2.More Front

3.Lucky Town

All signs ar "pointing" to #6 JAVELIN, who was a well clear runner up in a slightly weaker event about three weeks ago, and this five year old chestnut rarely gives a bad effort. Rosario is operating on the better side of his alter ego so far at this stand ( 7:2-3-1 ), & Miceli ( 12% on the norm ) is a lovely 8:3-4-0-1 with locally based mid level dirt stock who crashed the party 13-27 days ago ( < 9-1 ). The payoffs came back $4, $14 & $6, and we like what we see. #1 MORE FRONT has nice zip and drops to his lowes level yet. 2 for 3 when starting from the innermost two posts. #2 LUCKY TOWN closes out the tri.

 

 Race 8

1.Giant Run

2.Dowse's Beach

3.Inspector Lynley

There are three solid DRF angles in play for today's feature, so let's to 'em...  #7 GIANT RUN hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but won his only start off a "legit" layoff, and 11% shedrow is a tight 3 for 6 with turf stayers off sabbaticals of 300 days or more ( < 40-1 ), but oh lady, look at the mutuels -- $75, $42 & $78 !!  Toss in the fact that Bravo is 7:3-1-1 in tandem with this chap, and as my dad used to say..."I'M IN !!" #3 DOWSE'S BEACH ( an apparently lovely place in Cape Cod http://capecodonline.com/cape-cod-beaches/barnstable/dowses-beach/ ) has done his best work over this oval, and Cox ( Dig it ) is a sublime 12:11-5-2 with optional turf routers in the 60-280 day range at 12-1 or lower ( $4.98 ROI ). Live runner. #2 INSPECTOR LYNLEY will be led over by a gentleman who doubles his regular 17% average with second off the L/O Belmont turf runners going long at this level < 9-1 ( $9, $8, $10 & $14 ).  OFF TURF: 2-6-3-8-1

 

 Race 9

1.The Two Nancy's

2.Kitten's Covergirl

3.Tres Charmant

#7 THE TWO NANCY'S has been in the rear with the gear over her last duet, but there's no scary drop today, and this one scored right here just prior to the two flops. 10% Contessa is a nifty 8:3-2-2 with 2nd off the break runners of this ilk at 20-1 or lower, and the winning prices were just fine at $11, $35 & $13. #4 KITTEN'S COVERGIRL has a nice overall body of work, and W.W. is 6-14 when going poly to turf with dashers in the 33-67 day bracket ( $2.93 ROI ). #5 TRES CHARMANT has gotten better with each passing start ( at least from a speed figure aspect ), and we don't mind the 5th place finish in the first foray against winners, as the # improved from the maiden breaker just prior to that.  OFF TURF: 5-2-4-3-8

 

 
Belmont          ( Current )    12-76   ( $97.30 )    Beatable Favorites   2-7  ( 28.6% )     Favorites Win %:  31-76    ( 40.8% )( As of Friday morning )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )   Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )   Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-32    ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 13-30    ( 42.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8489 ($14,607.80)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3124-8583( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9057   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3287-9170( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017