KevinCoxItem


Finished the week with another profitable card & a cold $92 double as well.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #4 Fillet of Sole  Race 9 - #5 La Naturel ( Ire )


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Belmont - 5/10

 

 Race 1

1.Vegas Kitten

2.Zap Daddy

3.Houseer

#8 VEGAS KITTEN improved drastically from the first start to the next, and while there's always a chance that the diploma earning effort was the result of softer ground, in reality, Brown doesn't need much of an excuse to win. Jose O. off to a sizzling start at the stand, and we'll give this one a mild nod. #3 ZAP DADDY regressed a bit in his first try against winners, but that can always be forgiven, no? M.M. is 3 for 10 with locally based optional turf stayers at < 12-1 & we'll give this one another shot. #4 HOUSEER enters today off a career best effort ( in his first turf try ) and breeding tells us that it was legit enough.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-7-3-2-8

 

      Race 2

1.Leah's Dream

2.Hexameter

3.Frau Blucher

#1 LEAH'S DREAM is a whopping 4 for 9 at the trip ( 0-5 otherwise ), owns some nice zip and can easily atone for the recent flop. #5 HEXAMETER has been a part of the super in her last quartet and is sensible to be a part of the action once again. #6 FRAU BLUCHER made up for the horror movie of a debut by winning by a pole next out, and you can possibly attribute that Wilder performance to Lasix being administered for the first time. Using, but beware of the bounce.

 

Race 3

1.Get Game ( AE )

2.Jo's Bold Cat

3.Conquest Bandit ( AE )

#12 GET GAME (AE) hasn't been in action since before Christmas, but lost by just a half in his lone start off the shelf, and the lone tally came beneath today's pilot. Timid selection in a wide open deal. #6 JO'S BOLD CAT has done his best work at this distance and just missed in two tries with Ortiz. #11 CONQUEST BANDIT (AE) is back in for a tag today after flopping in the return off an elongated break.  NOTE: AS OF 12:39, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES OUR SELECTIONS ARE NOW 6-9-2.

 

      Race 4

1.Forward Motion

2.Summer Mischief

3.Elenzee

#1 FORWARD MOTION was dead game in procuring the diploma 23 days ago, and Rice ( 23% when brushing her teeth in the morning ) is 4 for 7 with turf dashers who broke their maiden < 42 days ago ( $5, $9, $16 & $5 ). While a bounce is always possible given the fact that said win was off the bench, we'll give this one the nod. #4 SUMMER MISCHIEF hasn't been seen since December, but has fired well fresh, and pre-layoff jock returns for this runner who is now sans tes-tee-klees. C-Squared always has them squared away for the comebackers. #5 ELENZEE lost by just a length in his only "second off the L/O try", and best work came beneath JJC.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-13(MTO)-1-5-11  NOTE: AS OF 12:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 5

1.Clairvoyant Lady

2.Maddizaskar

3.Smile Big

There are three strong ( two of them powerful ) DRF formulator angles in play here, so let's get right to 'em. #5 CLAIRVOYANT LADY: 'Miah is a sublime 14 for 24 with second off the break mid level dirt runners who crashed the party in last & are 4-1 or less today ( $3.13 ROI ). #2 MADDIZASKAR: Bobby Barbara ( no relation to Hanna ) has a tidy 3-7 mark with runners of this caliber at 8-1 or lower ( $5, $6, & $16 ); this one scored in her only try over the strip. #7 SMILE BIG: Jacobsen ( 21% day to day ) is 20 for 50 ( 40% ) with Belmont dirt dashers at this level off sabbaticals of 35-71 days ( $2.67 return on investment ). Mare has been a part of the super in all five outings off the bench.

 

Race 6

1.Danielle's Pride

2.Starlite Mission ( AE )

3.Chestnut Street

#7 DANIELLE'S PRIDE hasn't faced the starter since the fall, but gets an upgrade in the trainer department today & the adjusted turf figs from last year weren't half bad. Franco is lured to ride. #12 STARLITE MISSION (AE) needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to face the starter, but was a well clear runner up in a nearly identical spot at Aqueduct in mid April, and the # from that day came back solid enough. #5 CHESTNUT STREET is a four year old facing younger foes for today's career starter, and there's obvious turf breeding here.  OFF TURF: 2-3-1-8-10  NOTE: AS OF 12:43, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 

1.Kenyan

2.Sparty Boy

3.Hatteras Bound

#8 KENYAN has been a part of the super in his last six, and increased his Beyer speed figures over his last quintet. & is backed by a nice Gary Sciacca stat ( what? ) which has him at 16:4-2-3-2 with runners fitting all this criteria off breaks of 17-32 days at odds of 15-1 or below. The mutuels were a whopping $31, $17, $9 & $23, and gelding has a win over the strip. #7 SPARTY BOY undergoes a gamut of changes today ( turf to dirt, two turns to one, and takes a big drop while getting a new pilot as well ) and would need for only one of those to work for an impression to be made here. #6 HATTERAS BOUND ( cross entered at Presque Isle today, so check the changes ) owns some speed and may last for a share.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 FILLET OF SOLE is on the hook here, as Pletcher os 0-9 when dropping his dirt sprinters by 50% or more.   NOTE: AS OF 12:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3rD SELECTION.

 

 Race 8

1.Weekfair ( Fr )

2.Great Soul

3.Amabilis ( GB )

#9 WEEKFAIR (FR) has done some nice work over in France & gets juice in her first North American start today. "Week" selection in a tough race to sort out. #4 GREAT SOUL is the obvious speed of this deal and it just may be her race to lose. #7 AMABILIS (GB) had a tough trip in the American debut, but Johnny V. sticks around, and who's to say if Mott had this one fully cranked anyway that day.  OFF TURF: 4-5-8-1-3(MTO)

 

 Race 9

1.Samara

2.Ragtime Suzy

3.Kickin Kimberly

#7 SAMARA was a troubled but lively runner up in a similar spot down in Hallandale Beach on 3/22, and this four year old has put together a decent body of work since starting things out last fall. Albertrani ( not necessarily who you think of when you hear "turf sprinting trainer" ) is a sharp 5:3-2-0 with maiden claiming dashers on the gramma at odds beneath the 12-1 watermark ( $12, $17 & $8 ).  #2 RAGTIME SUZY has gone 45-61 in her two turf sprints and loses the hood while dropping down to her lowest level yet. #8 KICKIN KIMBERLY hasn't been in action since turkey time, but hung up a lifetime best numero when last seen, and is a factor if sound.  OFF TURF: 7-2-11-12-13(AE)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 LA NATUREL (IRE)

 
Belmont          ( Current )    10-67   ( $80.30 )   Beatable Favorites   2-5  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win %:  29-67   ( 43.3% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )   Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )   Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-32    ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 13-30    ( 42.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8489 ($14,607.80)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3124-8583( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9057   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3287-9170( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017