KevinCoxItem


Well, at least we won't have to change many numbers for today.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #7 Shalako


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Belmont - 5/6

 

 Race 1

1.Lady Rullah

2.Lipstickonmycollar

3.Asian's Way

#4 LADY RULLAH merely split the field in a similar spot on 4/11, but gets off the rail today ( drew such an amazing six of twelve starts ) and there's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 260 weeks, Martin is a groovy 6-16 ( $2.26 ROI ) with locally based mid level dirt stock off 17-33 day breaks. The wild thing about that stat, is it came with those who were out of the money in last, while this barn is 0-14 when substituting in the money instead. ( That's why we always look at "in the money" or "out of the money". ) #2 LIPSTICKONMYCOLLAR has won both starts when entered at or below today's claiming price & is 1 for 2 at the trip. Sizzling 47 flat morning move last Saturday signals readiness for today's comebacker. #6 ASIAN'S WAY rounds out the top three. ( Which is another way of saying "It's 2:27 in the morning and we're fading fast." )

 

      Race 2

1.English Dancer

2.Grandpa's Arianna

3.Tiz R Bella

#6 ENGLISH DANCER showed zilch in the most recent, but is in with a tag now, and Mott ( from a limited sampling ) is 3 fer 7 when doing just that with his Elmont turf stayers ( 27-77 days ). The winners came back $4, $7 & $4, and Johnny V. is enticed to ride. #8 GRANDPA'S ARIANNA scored the last time she was available for purchase ( beneath Kendrick ) and has a bullet move since the flop. Chance to make amends. #7 TIZ R BELLA has beaten just one home in her last two, but is another up for sale for the first time today, and gets a red hot Jose Ortiz in the stirrups.  OFF TURF: 4-5-9(MTO)-3-7(MTO)

 

Race 3

1.Mad Dog Matters

2.Princess Char

3.Anazara

#4 MAD DOG MATTERS has hit the board in 5 of 6 on the dirt and sheds the blinkers while ( yikes ) adding Luzzi. Timid choice. #3 PRINCESS CHAR went 48-52 when splitting the field in her first two starts, but didn't show much over the wet stuff & was subsequently laid up. There's a string of three steadily improving workouts for today's comebacker, and Charlie won with a smart looking maiden here on Friday. #5 ANAZARA brings a 398 Tommy to the table for today's career starter, and although Mott not known for his prowess with firsters, Johnny V, is enticed to ride.

 

      Race 4

1.Bad Student

2.Shadow Rider

3.Abounding Legacy

There are a couple'a decent trainer stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em. #2 BAD STUDENT has climbed right up the Beyer ladder over his last quintet ( dating back to last year ), and Diodoro is a sublime 9 for 15 with second off the claim dirt runners who won 29-57 days ago ( 4-1 or less ). The ROI for that sampling is a whopping $3.64, and the hat trick is well within reach today. #1 SHADOW RIDER has closed out the super in his last troika, and although this one is a nibbler by nature, Toscano more than doubles his normative 13% batting average with Belmont mid level dirt stock who missed the money 2-4 dozen days ago & are 12-1 or lower today ( pos. ROI ). #5 ABOUNDING LEGACY is 5:2-2-1 at the trip, and that's cause enough to lob beneath.

 

      Race 5

1.Course Correction

2.Azzedine ( Fr )

3.Into the Breach

#1 COURSE CORRECTION was a hard charging ( and well clear ) runner up in the Keeneland bow on April 7th, and Brown is a groovy 14:8-5-0 with second time starters ( < 56 days ) under these exact circumstances ( ITM last & < 4-1 today ) w/a $2.50+ ROI. #5 AZZEDINE (FR) returned off a brief freshening to close out the exacta at Ozone Park on the same day as his uncoupled barnmate above, and the figure earned was a stark improvement to that of the debut. Barn ( from a small sampling ) is 3-6 with second off the break runners of this ilk > 1.50-1 & < 4.50-1 ( ITM last ) with mutuels of $10, $7 & $7. #7 INTO THE BREACH tossed a couple of jacked up numeros around this time last year, but then hit the shelf for one reason or another. Money burner ( 8:M-6-1 ) will be led over by a man who ( from an even smaller study ) is 2 fer 5 with turf stayers at this level off sabbaticals of 222-444 days ( $10 & $9 ).  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-5-9

 

Race 6

1.Pop the Hood

2.Battle Station

3.Breaking the Rules

#3 POP THE HOOD is 3 for 7 off legit breaks ( 1-9 otherwise ) and has decent familiarity with today's pilot. Another meeeeek selection in tough to decipher handful. #2 BATTLE STATION has a win at this strip & trip; been moving well in the mornings for today's return to action. #1 BREAKING THE RULES got the diploma at first asking fer Shug, and that's not something that happens all too often. It was a blanket finish that day, so while we'll be using in our rollers, it's not with an uuber amount of confidence.

 

Race 7 

1.Strut N Stomp

2.Bow Tie Affair

3.Nile Prince

#3 STRUT N STOMP has been in good form over the last two starts, and Sharp is just that with mid level male turf routers who were in the money in this day range last out & are > 1.50-1 & 4.50-1 today. He's a 16:8-3-0 in that area with a $3.65 ROI. #1 BOW TIE AFFAIR has hit the board in 4 of 9 locally & is confidently hiked up off the claim. Good sign to see Javier hop on. #6 NILE PRINCE as bad as any for the show dough.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 SHALAKO fills the bill, as 20% Nevin is NOT heavenly when going dirt to turf & sprint to route, as she's 0-12 in that area.

 

 Race 8

1.Faypien

2.Highway Star

3.Tequilita

Today's featured race is named after one of, if not THE greatest fillies to have ever stepped hoof on a track --- Ruffian. Her image looks down at me with every column I write, and yet all I have are photos & memorabilia of her Hall of Fame career...nothing more. I've enclosed video of her winning The Mother Goose by a baker's dozen right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2qfLJYcq5s . Enjoy. #1 FAYPIEN has that nice sort of "declining" record that we love to see ( 8:4-2-1 ), and we like that this one has a nice runner up finish in the second off the layoff try & that Garcia comes in for the mount. #5 HIGHWAY STAR is 5 for 6 right here, and what in God's green earth is wrong with that? #3 TEQUILITA is 1 for 2 in second off the layoff tries, and...and...that's all I have to say about that.

 

 Race 9

1.Snap Decision

2.Mr. Maybe

3.War Bond

#7 SNAP DECISION tallied in his only 2nd off the break try, and Claude is a snappy 13:5-5-0 with optional turf routers right here in between 2.25-1 & 6.75-1. $3.70 ROI. #11 MR. MAYBE hasn't been seen in a bit, but has done well at the distance. Needs to be more engaged early on. #9 WAR BOND is 3 for 6 at this dx. ( 1-12 otherwise ) and has some decent tactical speed. OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-7-2-13(MTO)-5

 

 Race 10

1.Cetara

2.Galway Girl

3.Stormy Rita

#10 CETARA has done substantially better work when going short rather than long, and Abel guided this one to a nice runner up finish up north last year at 25-1. That start ( & one other when she closed out the tri ) were the only two times when going 2X to 1X, and as this is such an atrocious race, why not go for a price? #8 GALWAY GIRL has only beaten home an average of 1.8 runners over her last six outings, but the career best # came right here has had ample time to rest up. #13 STORMY RITA (AE) has okay breeding for the sod, and Stone is enticed to ride.  OFF TURF: 6-4-10-7-11

 
Belmont          ( Current )    8-58     ( $52.10 )   Beatable Favorites   2-5  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win %:  25-58   ( 43.1% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-32    ( $34.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 2-3   ( 66.7% )     Favorites Win %: 13-30    ( 42.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8489 ($14,607.80)   Beatable Favorites : 267-947( 28.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 3124-8583( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9057   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 282-1015( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 3287-9170( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017