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Back on track yesterday with a profitable grand salami & "Beatable Favorite" to boot !

Just a reminder that we have Kentucky Derby, and other stakes action from Churchill covered for you this weekend. Just go back one page for all of it ! 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #1 Fast Getaway  Race 6 - #3 Holy Helena  Race 12 - #11 Pence


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Belmont - 5/5

 

 Race 1

1.Jump for Joy

2.Our Whim

3.Holy Gold

#5 JUMP FOR JOY hasn't been seen in nearly three months, but has hit the board twice in three times off a L/O, and Baker is the man with locally based mid level dirt stock off absences of 20 days or more ( < 7-2 ). He's 10:6-1-2-1 in that regards, and has a positive ROI as well. #1 OUR WHIM is a nibbler by rote ( 17:1-6-5 ), but has hit the board in seven of her last nine attempts at this level, and 10% Contessa is 1 for 54 ( 24% ) with mid level dirt stock who hit the board 10-20 days ago & are below 8-1 today. Tyler gets the call. #6 HOLY GOLD has been freshened up a bit, and will likely be on the choo choo early on. Needs to catch a breather to have a shot, but may last for a share.

 

      Race 2

1.Brilliant Scheme

2.Nucks

3.Beach Access

#1 BRILLIANT SCHEME showed vastly improved speed in the latest, and sometimes that can be a harbinger of good things to come. We consider this a mild drop in class, and although Luzzi has been awful going back to late 2017, we'll pin our hopes to a wire job with today's surface switch. Oh yeah--Toscano has put three Belmont runners on the sod for the first time at this level ( < 34 days ) and won with one of them to the tune of $59. #12 NUCKS has gotten smacked around a bit in both starts when breaking from the pine, and is guaranteed a somewhat easier sojourn today with the outside draw. Turf breeding is slightly better than the dirt, and this one could surprise at a big number. #4 BEACH ACCESS flopped in the turf debut, but we can be forgiving of that, and is another who appears to be best suited for today's surface. "Ponce de la Prado" gets the nod for an animal entering off a career best performance.  OFF TURF: 1-9-6-8-11

 

Race 3

1.Mister Hayes

2.Jet Black

3.Chilly Bon Bon

#1 MISTER HAYES is 3 for 4 here ( 1-11 at other venues ), is 3 for his last 4 when available for purchase, and Nevin is a crisp 4 for 8 with second off the layoff runners of this ilk who missed the board in last & are less than 4-1 today ( positive ROI ). Runner does his best when inside of other horses, as his 4 for 8 mark from posts 1-4 bests his 0-7 ledger from the 5 hole on out. #6 JET BLACK has done his best work at Elmont ( 9:3-3-0 here, and 21:0-3-6 over other ovals ) & comes in off a solid effort vs. slightly weaker. Sensible. #5 CHILLY BON BON likes this trip 7 may come along for a piece.

 

      Race 4

1.China Rider

2.Guerriere ( Ire )

3.Conquest Tizfire

#4 CHINA RIDER finished 3rd in this race over at The Big A 23 days ago, has a win over the strip, and 12% shedrow is 3 for 6 with local second off the L/O turf dashers in the 18-36 day range at 12-1 or lower. The winners came back $14, $19 & $4, and there's a sub category of 2 fer 3 with those who crashed the party in last. #7 GUERRIERE (IRE) has done some good work over in the land of grapes, and gets the typical makeover ( Lasix, drop in weight ) that most European imports get when arriving in the states. #3 CONQUEST TIZFIRE was a game runner up at big odds in her lone second off the L/O try, and you can definitely toss the last after a crummy start.  OFF TURF: 2-3-4-1-7

 

      Race 5

1.Moses Supposes

2.Preternatural

3.Tenency

#4 MOSES SUPPOSES has been working pretty well for today's career starter and is a half to a 2 for 4 dirt sprinter. Meek selection in a wide open event. #9 PRETERNATURAL is another starting things out today, and draws well while bringing in tow a juicy Tomlinson of 413. Fella is a 1/2 to one who had a 1-5 mark at this trip ( 54G ), and the solid auction price of $190,000 is pretty nifty for a New York bred. #6 TENENCY has a couple'a bullets in the holster for this overture & is as good as any for the show dough.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 FAST GETAWAY fills the bill, as Rice is a rotten 2 for 62 with firsters at Belmont ( 0-18 on the dirt ).

 

Race 6

1.Summersault

2.Santa Monica ( GB )

3.Peru ( GB )

Today's 6th is the Sheepshead Bay Handicap, named after the long gone track in Brooklyn. For some REALLY cool info on that place, go to this site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheepshead_Bay_Race_Track . #7 SUMMERSAULT has hit the board in more than half of her turf starts & is 2 for 3 at the dist. Slight edge. #6 SANTA MONICA (GB) won in her first N.A. start for Brown ( shocker ) & is logical right back. #2 PERU (GB) has a win here & best start came over firm ground. We'll make the #3 HOLY HELENA our BEATABLE FAVORITE, as Jerkens is oh-fer-20 in ANY turf stakes at Belmont.  OFF TURF: 4-3-5-1-2

 

Race 7 

1.Bitumen

2.Will Did It

3.Rockford

#7 BITUMEN is priced extremely high in this spot at 20-1, as the last race number falls right in line to the rest of the field. As a matter of fact, this one happens to be 3 for 5 at the trip ( 0-12 at other dx.'s ) and from a limited sampling, 15% clan is 2-5 with mid level dirt sprinters in the 23-47 day bracket at > 10-1 & < 30-1 ( OTB in last. The winners came back $47 & $25 & this guy just may rock tha boast a bit. #4 WILL DID IT is 3:2-0-1 at Belmont & has won his last two outings at this level or lower. Cold jock guaranteed to try hard for the minor spoils. #1 ROCKFORD has only beaten home the chase ambulance in his last duet, but is 9:4-2-0 when starting from the wood, & has a great "declining" record at the distance of 15:6-3-1. Chance on the dropdown.  NOTE: AS OF 11:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 8

1.Rubellite

2.No Deal

3.Tapping Colors

#1 RUBELLITE had a bit of trouble at the onset of the initial foray, but still ended up splitting the field that day at 35-1. $125K purchase is a touch better bred for this shorter trip today, so taking that into account, as well as sliding in five posts & possibly a cleaner journey, than maybe a better result can be in store today. Honk if you like that Donk is 4 for 7 with second time starters at Elmont under these conditions ( < 25 days ) at 24-1 or lower ( $3, $22, $8 & $11 ), and you have the looks of a live longshot. #9 NO DEAL's three best figaros have come on the gramma, and blinks are part of the package today. #8 TAPPING COLORS is seemingly getting better & better and is second off the shelf this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-13(AE)-6

 

 Race 9

1.Patternrecognition

2.Morning Buzz

3.Spartiatis

#3 PATTERNRECOGNITION has done very little wrong in his lifetime, and despite not having been seen since the fall, we're assuaged by the fact that Brown has won with half of his starts w/optional dirt stock off 2-8 month hibernations ( < 7-2 ). #8 MORNING BUZZ sure is a fun horse, huh? Six year old shoots for "One for the thumb" today. and the lifetime mark of 33:10-8-1 tells the tale for this hard trier. Gelding is 3 for 5 when starting from the outside and has a win beneath Double D. #7 SPARTIATIS is 3:2-1-0 in his last triad of starts at this level and could wake up with today's drop in class.  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 10

1.Manitoulin

2.Small Bear

3.Markitoff

#5 MANITOULIN hasn't been in action since turkey time, but owns a win & a third from as many turf starts off the shelf, is 3 for 5 at this locale and 2 for 2 at the trip. Things to like. #6 SMALL BEAR was last seen ion New Year's Eve Eve, but has a 2nd & 3rd off the shelf and recently fired a 10th best of 83 breeze ( a quick move for him ). #4 MARKITOFF rounds out the top three in a race that we really don't have a good read on.  OFF TURF: 7-9-2-5-8

 

      Race 11

1.Tommy Macho

2.Vulcan's Forge

3.Conquest Big E

#5 TOMMY MACHO has been befallen by some layoff lines, but is 3:1-0-2 going 1X in second off the layoff attempts and has done fine work both at this trip and over this strip. Could be a big day for Gaffalione. #4 VULCAN'S FORGE ( second half of the uncoupled entry w/the above ) is 2 for 3 at Big Sandy and the last score came underneath today's jockola. #6 CONQUEST BIG E went pillar to post in an identical spot down at G.P. ( besting the top choice & a Kentucky Derby winner ) but loses six pounds in the weight department to that one today, so we'll leave beneath.

 

      Race 12

1.Can'tweallgetalong

2.Tammany Giant

3.Wicked Huntsman

#4 CAN'TWEALLGETALONG ( yes, we're calling on Luzzi's number for the second time today, and even think we have him picked second somewhere as well ) has put together back to back decent efforts for Contessa, who's 3 for 9 with runners fitting this criteria ( < 10-1 ) who missed the $ 19-39 days back. The winners paid $8, $17 & $5, and the turf routes last summer weren't half bad. #3 TAMMANY GIANT goes from open foes back to state breds here, and Trevor hangs around -- possibly expecting improvement off a troubled turf debut. #7 WICKED HUNTSMAN posted an adjusted 51.3 in the lone turf sprint, and although he's beaten just one home over his last quartet, we go anywhere in a maiden's P.P.'s to find a positive, as they're maidens for a reason, you know.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 PENCE sounds like one, as Rice is 0-17 with maiden claiming turf sprinters at Bel. ( 39+ days ).

 


Belmont          ( Current )    8-46     ( $52.10 )   Beatable Favorites   1-2  ( 50.0% )   Favorites Win %:  22-46   ( 47.8% )( As of Sat morning )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )   Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )   Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-26     ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 1-2   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 12-24    ( 50.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8483 ($14,607.80) Beatable Favorites : 266-946( 28.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 3123-8577( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9051   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 281-1014( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3286-9164( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017