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Only one chalky winner on yesterday's card ( as six more faves came in ), but it was with the finest DRF Formulator stat we've uncovered to date, so hope some of y'all got down on it.

Just a reminder that we have Kentucky Oaks, Kentucky Derby, and other stakes action from Churchill covered for you this weekend. Just go back one page for all of it ! 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #7 Fiduciary Values


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Belmont - 5/4

 

 Race 1

1.Pletcher Entry

2.Dilger Entry

3.Chattel

We start out the day with another ( in our opinion ) $100,000 maiden special weight event drawing just six entrants, and perhaps it would be better if they ran these deals for say, 80K. You can use that difference to supplement the kind of races that trainers fill during the long winter months, and wouldn't these horses still be entered for that kind of purse? Anyway... #1 FLAT RATE ( a line from 'The Sting' ) begins his professional career today with a healthy Tomlinson figure ( 414 ) & is backed by a 19:8-7-1 trainer stat with those fitting ALL this exact criteria ( 5-2 or less ). This is the first foal out of a winless dam, but daddy was 2 for 2 going 1X, & he's coupled with a strong entrymate. #1 SOCIAL FAN was a legit runner up at first asking for Pletcher, and the Toddster is a nice 5-9 with second timers within these parameters who hit the board less than 32 days ago at the above odds. Both #2 HERBIES TOYS & #2 WAYNES FOOTSTEPS have decent bloodlines for their overtures, and the former was purchased at auction for more than 5X the stud fee. #6 CHATTEL has an okay gate move for today's bow & is as good as any for the show dough, in a race where you may actually have to go down to the 6th place finisher to close out the super.

 

      Race 2

1.Blissful Breeze

2.Regal Dame

3.La Piu Bella

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 BLISSFUL BREEZE went from the back to the front in a smart maiden breaking effort about three weeks ago, and finds herself on the stretchout in her first try against winners today. Keeping in mind that we consider poly to be somewhat equivalent to turf, it's encouraging to see the steady increase in synthetic & grass numbers along the way ( 49-50-56-68 ). Additionally, Casse doubles his normal batting average with mid level turf routers who snagged the sheepskin < 44 days ago, as he's 9:4-1-1-1 in that regards, with the winners coming back $4, $10, $14 & $9. #1 REGAL DAME has posted a couple of decent numbers when going long at similar levels, and figures there once again beneath a hungry Arroyo. #4 LA PIU BELLA ( "The most beautiful" ) won by a pole down in Hallandale Beach & is logical off that effort.  OFF TURF:4-3(MTO)-1-5-2

 

Race 3

1.Binkster

2.Sweeping Vista

3.Lutheran Rags

#2 BINKSTER is an animal on the improve, appears to be the controlling speed signed on, and catches a fast track for just the second time. Hoping Trevor can walk the dog here. #1 SWEEPING VISTA got up along the inside to win at first asking for Charlie, and although the number came back a mite lowish, sometimes these newbies can improve by leaps and bounds. #3 LUTHERAN RAGS always gives a good account of himself, and 13% Toscano owns a nice 16:5-3-3-1 ledger with those fitting within all these parameters at odds of 6-1 or lower ( < 55 days ). The mutuels for that sampling were $6, $13, $9, $12 & $4 & this is a must use.

 

      Race 4

1.Edisto Island

2.Miko

3.Lion in Wait

#5 EDISTO ISLAND faded late in the game in the 2nd off the layoff try, but sheds 64 ounces today, and Casse is classy like Freddie Blassie with upper level turf routers that are lower than 5-1 ( less than 87 days ). He's a nifty 4 for 6 in that regards with payoffs of $7, $7, $5 & $11. #1 MIKO hasn't been seen since mid November, but won the only time he was put up for sale on the sod, and Linda knows how to have 'em prepped. #2 LION IN WAIT has a win & a second in as many starts over this course & has won her last two when available for purchase.

 

      Race 5

1.Posse Needed

2.Stormy's Song

3.Sower

#5 POSSE NEEDED finished second in her only "legit" second off the L/O attempt ( on this strip ), has a win in her only other try over this oval, has fired off a decent work since the last game effort, & is backed by a nice 9 albeit small ) DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, Hennig is 5:3-0-2 with locally based 2nd off the shelf dirt sprinters who crashed the party in latest ( $7, $4 & $6 ). Appears strong. #3 STORMY'S SONG hasn't been seen in a while, but was doing some good things as a three year old before being sent to the bench, and is an obvious threat if fully primed. #2 SOWER positively aired right outta the box when perfectly spotted by rice down in Md., and the 388 Tommy ( as well as an auction price that was 3X the breeding price ) says to us that the big effort was legit. Factor in once again.  NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6

1.Hot Cash

2.Presumptuous

3.Fingerpaint

#5 HOT CASH is our play of this young meet so far. We've prorated the recent turf number to what we believe it should be with today's transition to the dirt, and what we came up with was a fig that supersedes anything anyone in this race has posted -- or is capable of running ( except our secondary selection ). That doesn't even take into account that Lasix is in play for the first time, or that this one is 3rd off the layoff while going 2X to 1X. Just a straightforward, adjusted numero. #1 PRESUMPTUOUS is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but as we always delve anywhere in a non-winner's P.P.'s to come up with a #, this will be the only one we'll be using in an exacta saver --given a few past decent running lines. #4 FINGERPAINT is a price play to jazz up the exotics.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 FIDUCIARY VALUES

 

Race 7 

1.Compagno

2.Benefactor

3.Daddy's Home

#8 COMPAGNO has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but we don't believe that the dirt try at Oaklawn was legit, as they don't offer turf racing ( this one's specialty ) down at Hot Springs. We like the ascension in the Beyer department up until that day ( 66-69-71-75-79 ), but obviously there have been some physical problems, so take a gander pre race. #4 BENEFACTOR was a lively runner up on the dirt 23 days ago, and finished 2nd & 4th ( both by 2 lengths or less ) in both dirt to turf tries. Logical, given the overall body of work. #6 DADDY'S HOME was extremely gritty in besting slightly weaker here on April 13th, and makes sense once again.  OFF TURF: 3-2-5-7-4

 

 Race 8

1.Hard Study

2.Backsideofthemoon

3.Watershed

Featured race on the afternoon is the Flat Out stakes, and we're seeing it as easy as 1-2-3.  #1 HARD STUDY has a string of Beyers in the 90's, finished a nice 2nd in his lone "second off the layoff" attempt, and is 3:2-1-0 right here. Factor that in with Pletcher being 12:6-3-1 with second off the break ungraded dirt routers who won their most recent ( & are 3-1 or lower today ), and you have the makings of a deserving favorite. #2 BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON was a mite flat in the grade 3 event over at The Big A, but ridgling has worked well since & deserves another shot. #3 WATERSHED rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 9

1.Set the Trappe

2.Toohottoevenspeak

3.Holding Aces

#6 SET THE TRAPPE has been ambitiously spotted in all three starts since being claimed by Ferraro on my birthday, and has gotten trounced in all of 'em. This is a tough reach, I know, but if you can see your way clear to the pre-layoff outing, then what you have is a runner who's done his best work at this trip and strip for a barn that can pop at a price from time to time. #8 TOOHOTTOEVENSPEAK is a steady sort who is 2 for 9 here ( 1-23 elsewhere ), and while we'll be using in our rollers, will keep underneath here given his overall penchant for nibbling. #2 HOLDING ACES was a troubled third against somewhat tougher a bit shy of a month ago, and makes all kinds of sense off that effort.


Belmont          ( Current )    4-37     ( $27.00 )   Beatable Favorites     1-1  ( 100% )   Favorites Win %:  18-37   ( 48.7% )( As of Friday morning )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-26     ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 1-2   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 12-24    ( 50.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8483 ($14,607.80) Beatable Favorites : 266-946( 28.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 3123-8577( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9051   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 281-1014( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3286-9164( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017