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Favorites continue to rule the roost in New York, as they've been coming in at a 39.3% clip since the start of the Aqueduct winter meet, & 44.0% over the last two meets.

Just a reminder that we will be having Kentucky Oaks & Derby coverage this week, along with few other stakes races. Just go back one page to find that action.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 5/3

 

 Race 1

1.Abyssinian

2.Mae No Never ( Ire )

3.Give Me a Hug

#2 ABYSSINIAN & #5 MAE NEVER NO (IRE) comprise both halves of the uncoupled Ward entry, and the aforementioned conditioner is 5 for 8 ( $3.27 ROI ) with those fitting all this exact criteria ( any sex ). The former has been working quicker than the latter, and the sire was 2 for 2 going 1X on the dirt, the paternal granddam was 6-13 doing the same, & the maternal grandmommy was 1 fer 3 at this dance over a glib surface. That adds up to 9 for 18 cumulative numbers, and jock has done well for this barn. #6 GIVE ME A HUG draws well, has a maturity edge over the entire field, and 24% Pletcher is 12:5-3-1 with those fitting this exact criteria ( same jock ) at odds of 7-2 or less ( positive return on investment ). This one is a half to a 5 for 12 dirt dasher ( 139 large ), a 10-36 runner going short on the sand ( $193,000+ ), a 4-17 animal at this dance ( 158K ), and is a FULL to one that's 4 for 12 @ the trip ( 55G ). Oodles of things to like. 

 

      Race 2

1.Gio Lucky

2.C K Dexter Heaven

3.Street Cat Sam

#1 GIO LUCKY has hit the board in all four of his dirt starts ( encountering trouble in three of them ), and Gullo is a crisp 4 for 5 with second off the claim platers off breaks of 9-26 days beneath 7-1 ( turf to dirt ). The winners came back $8, $11, $4 & $5, and this one should save all the ground. #7 C K DEXTER HEAVEN is confidently hiked up 33.3333% off the claim today by Jacobsen, and that's saying something, as Drawing Away likes to win and is never shy about dropping 'em off a purchase. Castellano hops aboard for today's 3rd off the L/O attempt, and this is a must include for all your rolling action. #6 STREET CAT SAM has been given a bit of a freshening by Ferraro after besting just one in the local debut, and barn has had a decent year with their stock -- and some at big odds ( missed 3rd by a lip with one of their runners at 52-1 on Friday ). Could spice things up.  NOTE: AS OF 11:28, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Earned Success

2.Factor This

3.Show Me the Bucks

#6 EARNED SUCCESS went pillar to post first time out for Brown, and said trainer is 4 for 8 with second timers under these conditions off a win ( $13, $4 & $4 ). Gelding gets the outside once again, and as this one went for 14X the stud fee at auction, one would have to think there's plenty of upside left. #3 FACTOR THIS got smacked around a bit in the last ( hence the poor showing ), but won nicely the only time transitioning from green to brown, and placed the last time in for a tag. #2 SHOW ME THE BUCKS was just so-so in the first spin against winners, but three runners from that afternoon finished 1st, 3rd 7 4th next out, improving their speed figs by an average of 14.3 points in the process.

 

      Race 4

1.Better Yet

2.Small Row Girl

3.Smack

#7 BETTER YET & #1 SMALL ROW GIRL "Make-r" up the uncoupled entry, and me thinks that the initial start for both of them was just a prep, as ( from a teensie sampling ), this outfit is 2 for 2 with second time starters going turf to dirt when sprinting at this level off breaks of 17-35 days ( OTB in last ). We prefer the draw of the former over the latter, who is also a half to a 2 fer 11 turf sprinter who netted more than a c-note. The barnmate of this one has excellent turf pedigree, and gets a good "send" rider in Bobblehead. #2 SMACK has been working well for today's overture, and C-Squared is a groovy 9:4-2-0-1 with those within ALL these parameters at 10-1 or lower --- and NONE of those had Lasix. No turf sprinting lines in the family tree to report, tho.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-5-3

 

      Race 5

1.The Cake Is a Lie

2.Loose

3.Slam Chowder

There are three solid DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em.  #1 THE CAKE IS A LIE: Arriaga is a perfect 3 for 3 w/second off the claim stock who hit the board last time out & are up for sale today( $9, $8 & $8 ). Filly keeps getting better and better. #5 LOOSE: Rudy Rod ( who's done fantastic work with this horse ) is a sensational 17 for 38 with mid level dirt equines at Bel. that were ITM < 42 days ago ( 3-1 or beneath ). The ROI for that sampling is $2.32, and gal just loves this trip. #2 SLAM CHOWDER: Levine ( 14% on the norm ) is 6-28 with mid level dirt runners at Elmont who missed the money off of this kind of layoff ( 15-1 or lower ), with the winners coming back $28, $4, $9, $6, $11 & $12.

 

Race 6

1.Magari

2.Bowl of Kisses

3.Consubstantial

#5 MAGARI bested more than half of the field in the comebacker & Bond is a Moore than exceptional 3 fer 6 w/maiden claiming dirt sprinters that were 1-2-3 less than 40 days back, with mutuels of $4, $4 & $15. Additionally there's a sub category of 1 for 2 with 2nd off the shelf types. #6 BOWL OF KISSES hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but the prorated figaro earned back in the fall was solid enough, and this one is better bred for the sand than the blades. #8 CONSUBSTANTIAL has the best last race numero, and gets a nice slot while picking up Lopez; logical.

 

Race 7 

1.Conquest Bigluck E

2.Avast Matey

3.Bar None

#6 CONQUEST BIGLUCK E is curiously halved in price today after whistling at the Big A on 4/12, but given the big figs, fondness for the dx., & drop in class, this one is kinda hard to ignore, no? Well, it gets even better. Gullo owns a nice 6:4-1-1 stat with local sprinters on the sand who scored 13-33 days ago & are below the 7-1 watermark today. That number is further flattered by the fact that this barn is a jazzy 9:5-2-0 when dropping their mid level dirt dashers ( returning in less than 42 days ) 50% or more ( at 3-1 or less ), while having a positive ROI in that area. Play of the day, but wouldn't be surprised to see a scratch. #3 AVAST MATEY was all out to get up by a honker in a nearly identical spot 39 days ago, and 'Miah ( 25% day to day ) is a crisp 7:5-1-0 with 2nd off the claim/2nd off the L/O dirt dashers who won their most recent & are < 7-1 today ( $3.21 ROI ). Only bugaboo is the 0-2 mark in second off the break attempts, as well as a loss in the lone Belmont try. Mixed signals. #7 BAR NONE has closed out the exacta in 3 of 4 over this strip, and 19% Rodriguez is 3-10 with second off the claim mid level dirt runners right here who missed the $ less than 78 days back & are beneath 16-1 in the odds dept. today ( $6, $7 & $9 ).

 

 Race 8

1.Zenbennie

2.Eighth Commandment

3.Formal Event

We're really digging the prospects of the #6 ZENBENNIE in this spot. Right off the bat, this one is the apparent speed of the deal, and we see that she finished second in her lone "true" second off the shelf try. But what we really like is that this 9% clan is 5 for 14 ( 36% ) with turf stayers who hit the board < 49 days in the rear & are 15-1 or less today ( $11, $25, $30, $28 & $5 ). But wait -- there's more !!  There's a sub category of 3 for 3 with those that are second off a hiatus, and you can look at the last three payouts listed for those prices. Switches from Reyes to McCarthy today ( Anchor's away !! ), and we change our mind -- THIS is our play of the day ! #4 EIGHTH COMMANDMENT is 2 for 4 right here, and from a small study, Donk is 2 fer 6 with Elmont turf routers at this level @ 12-1 or under ( < 49 days ), The mutuels were $7 & $23, and Javier gets on. #5 FORMAL EVENT may perk up trying turf for the second time.  OFF TURF: 1A-4-2-3-8

 

 Race 9

1.Fact Check

2.Gun For Hire

3.Source Control

In what may be one of the finest DRF Formulator stats we've uncovered, #11 FACT CHECK will be led over by an hombre who's a sensational 13:11-1-1 with first off the claim turf stock ( > 42 days ) with blinkers, at odds of 3-1 or lower. The return on investment there is $4.76, and there's a sub category of 11 for 12 when discounting maidens, and 6 for 6 with sprinters only !! Book it. #3 GUN FOR HIRE hasn't shown much of late, but tries the gramma for the first time, and is actually bred extremely well for the stuff ( 351 Tomlinson ). Low % trainer ( 8% ) is 2-9 when stepping up turf equines 50% or more ( below 60-1 ), and we love that bullet breeze from a week & a half ago. #4 SOURCE CONTROL finished second in this race on April 8th, but isn't it interesting to see Irad boogie on over to our top selection.  OFF TURF: 5 (MTO)-7-8-1-9

 


Belmont          ( Current )    3-28     ( $23.20 )   Beatable Favorites     1-1  ( 100% )   Favorites Win %:  12-28   ( 42.9% ) 

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-26     ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 1-2   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 12-24    ( 50.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8483 ($14,607.80) Beatable Favorites : 266-946( 28.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 3123-8577( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9051   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 281-1014( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3286-9164( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017