KevinCoxItem


 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 4/29

 

 Race 1

1.Mar Vista Miguel 

2.River Knight 

3.Outrageous Bet

#1 MAR VISTA MIGUEL is a "Double Beyer Fig", in that the chap's last two speed figures are greater than anything any runner in this race has ever posted. Additionally, gelding is a whopping 4 for 5 when starting from the innermost two slots, and just 1 for 8 from the five hole on out. Destroys these with a perfect trip. #4 RIVER KNIGHT goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today ( a favorite angle of ours ), and while this one could be formidable if able to shake clear early on, we don't have the fever for the flavor of this Pringle runner's career 40:1-9-4 mark; leaving beneath. #5 OUTRAGEOUS BET ( 2-9 here, 0-6 elsewhere ) and has fired back to back bullets for today's return to the races ( a positive sign for a closer ).  OFF TURF: 6-3-5-1-2

 

      Race 2

1.Champagne Papi

2.Latin Love Bug

3.Maimo

#6 CHAMPAGNE PAPI is rapidly approaching "professional maiden" status, but we'll give her a shot here, as she's never missed the super on the sand & is facing no world beaters here. Mild choice. #3 LATIN LOVE BUG showed little at boxcar odds last out, but is second off the layoff today while being halved in price. Couldn't tell you the last time Luzzi won a race, tho. #1A MAIMO has the best last race fig & is in receipt of a tremendous jock switch today; must use. 

 

Race 3

1.Total Control 

2.Crimson Frost 

3.Stay Fond 

#5 TOTAL CONTROL has partaken in the exacta in all six starts since being transferred over to Lynch, and should sit an absolutely perfect trip. #1 CRIMSON  FROST is a $200,000 earner who is up for sale for the first time today, and this one has a few decent running lines since the end of last October. Four year old goes from two turns to one today. #2 STAY FOND owns a 3 for 5 mark at the trip ( has a goose egg from nine outings at other dx.'s ) and was a well clear runner up the only time she went from green to brown. 

 

      Race 4

1.English Channical

2.Lemon Blitz

3.Datum

#6 ENGLISH CHANNICAL disappointed in the return engagement, but 3YO went 39-44-52-58-59 in all his routing forays last year, and I wouldn't be surprised if the last was a prep for this. #9 LEMON BLITZ makes a big time trainer & jockey switch as well today. Hard to dismiss given the nice Beyerooskies as well as the major drop from open company into state breds. #3 DATUM is an $85K auction purchase taking that can be all yours for less than half of that today, and goes from Reyes to Franco, which is the equivalent of first time Lasix.  OFF TURF: 9-5-8-1-7

 

      Race 5

1.Another

2.Orbed

3.High Promise

#5 ANOTHER had a bit of trouble when last seen up at The Spa, and Mott ( ever the horseman ) backed off this colt for one reason or another. Bullet moves down at Payson Park a mite uncharacteristic for this barn, and as they still have a string at Gulfstream, isn't it interesting that this one was brought back up here for the larger purse? Paternal grandsire was 12:4-5-1 going short on the dirt, banking a lot of bread. #4 ORBED ( cross entered tomorrow at Churchill Downs, so check the changes ) was somewhat awkward when besting half of the lot at Hallandale Beach on April Fool's Day, but sometimes improvement can be shown with those donning blinks for the second time. Nice move back on Monday & Jose sticks around. #6 HIGH PROMISE tries hard all the time & gets his seventh different pilot in as many calls to the post. 

 

Race 6

1.Alabama Bound

2.Same Kinda Crazy 

3.Silly Sister 

#6 ALABAMA BOUND came from out of the clouds to get up in time versus A1X foes back in the fall, and that effort came beneath today's jockola. All three runners from the most recent who have come back to run--won. Meeeeekest of selections in a race that we're having trouble embracing. #3 SAME KINDA CRAZY is another exiting somewhat of a key race, as three returnees went 2-0-1 in their followups, and worth noting that Castellano climbs aboard an animal who has beaten but four home in his last troika. #1 SILLY SISTER ( cross entered Friday ) deserves a second crack at the green stuff today after a disastrous bow.  OFF TURF: 5-6-7-1-3

 

Race 7 

1.Whyamisolucky

2.Ten Twenty Nine

3.Luzinski

#2 WHYAMISOLUCKY won going away the only time he went 2X to 1X ( underneath Double D ), and Carlito looking for the "drop & pop" today. #1  TEN TWENTY NINE   -- police jargon for an "other" crime in the past NOT a robbery, burglary or larceny ( or as we were taught to memorize in the academy, "Roast Beef Lettuce And Onions" ) -- has closed out the exacta in his last duet & makes even more sense with today's jockey change. #4 LUZINSKI bulled his way through to a second place finish today, and there's a stronger bat in the lineup today w/Arroyo getting legged up. We don't think this one's had his Phil of recent successes yet. 

 

 Race 8

1.Always Thinking

2.Touch of Bling 

3.Jenniffer Lynnette

#5 ALWAYS THINKING scored in her only "true" 3rd off the L/O try, and Saez guided this one to a maiden breaking score right outta the box a couple'a Christmas' ago. Timid choice in a tough feature. #8 TOUCH OF BLING ( 2:1-1-0 at the dist. ) is 6:2-2-1 when starting from the outer three posts, but owns just a 13:2-4-1 ledger from other slots; shoots for the hat trick today. #2 JENNIFER LYNNETTE rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF:

 

 Race 9

1.Stag of Sylvia

2.Fleet Admiral

3.La Manche

#8 STAG OF SYLVIA broke from the wood in the career starter ( never easy ), then had a "rough start" while "checking heels" in the followup. If you can draw lines through those two lines of ugliness, then what you have is a late foal who just may be maturing that owns a more than healthy 427 Tommy for the distance. Dam was an honest 2-14 at this dance ( 56G ), and this one is a half to a 4 for 12 turf stayer who netted more than 129 big ones. The more pressing question you need to be asking yourself is -- why does Cordero have Franco signed on here? #2 FLEET ADMIRAL hasn't shown much of late, but hung up a lifetime best number when coming off the bench, & could spice things up here. #4 LA MANCHE has the best last race numero & takes the biggest drop in the game today.  OFF TURF: 8-5-7-1-9 


Belmont          ( Current )    1-9      ( $8.40 )      Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )       Favorites Win %:  4-9        ( 44.4% ) ( As of Sat. morning )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )   Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )   Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-26     ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 1-2   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 12-24    ( 50.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout   


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8483 ($14,607.80) Beatable Favorites : 266-946( 28.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 3123-8577( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9051   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 281-1014( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3286-9164( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017