KevinCoxItem


Just one winner and an ice cold $23 exacta on yesterday's Opening Day card, as favorites picked up right where they left off, with four coming in on the day.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #3 I'm Betty G


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Belmont - 4/28

 

 Race 1

1.Truth in the Lies 

2.Abbreviate

3.Annie Rocks 

#6 TRUTH IN THE LIES lost by just a length when facing slightly tougher right here a year ago, and last win came beneath today's pilot. Mild choice in a truncated opener. #7 ABBREVIATE owns the best collection of speed figures, has won off the shelf, and is 2 fer 2 locally; must include. #2 ANNIE ROCKS bested half the field in this race 22 days ago when losing by less than three, and is 1 for 3 over this course. Fragoso always tries hard for the minor spoils.  OFF TURF: 7-2-5-1-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 I'M BETTY G fills the bill, as Maker is 0-12 with optional turf sprinters in the 47-93 day area. 

 

      Race 2

1.Barefoot Angel

2.LAtin Love Bug

3.Three Goals

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 BAREFOOT ANGEL was a game runner up in a nearly identical spot just eight days ago, and the # earned from that day lays over most signed on. Will probably sit the pocket & pop out turning for home. #3 LATIN LOVE BUG showed very little in the first start for Toscano, but may have needed that, given the 2 1/2 month layoff. Drops down into state bred ranks today, but we'll leave beneath as Luzzi has been on an horrific streak. #8 THREE GOALS drops 25% in the first start off the claim for Servis, and will be in front for as long as he can.  NOTE: AS OF 8:52 PST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.My Pirate

2.Lake Party

3.Vicar's Legend

Not really feeling the mojo on this race, as we were only able to shave off just one of the seven signed on with our first draft, and the remaining conditioners all have ohfer stats, sooooo....  #4 MY PIRATE takes his first spin on the gramma today, but is a half to a 4 for 23 turf router who banked a quarter of a mil, as well as a 4-14 turf stayer who made nearly 300 large at that dance. We've always been fond of fading sprinters stretching out on the green stuff, as sometimes they can get brave. #2 LAKE PARTY trailed in the lone turf route, but we always give an animal at least two attempts over a particular surface/distance/etc. before we dismiss. Barn popped with a 63-1 shot last week, and it's interesting to see Trevor hop on. #7 VICAR'S LEGEND is yet another making his turf debut today, and is a half to a runner that was 3 for 18 at this trip ( 64G ).  OFF TURF: 5-6-3-7-1  NOTE: AS OF 8:53 PST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

      Race 4

1.Tusk

2.Take Your Guns 

3.Uncle Sigh

#6 TUSK was a bit flat in the latest, so Rudy slaps the hood back on today, and he actually does well when doing that in conjunction with his 3rd off the L/O dirt runners who missed the board last out ( & are 15-1 or less today ). He's 4 for 7 in that regards with the winners coming back $8, $17, $3 & $8. #3 TAKE YOUR GUNS is a bit of a fragile sort, but the overall body of work is fine, and ( from a small sampling ) Brown has won with both of his 2nd off the break optional dirt dashers right here. It's been quite some time since #5 UNCLE SIGH flopped in the Derby, but seven year old gelding is still getting the job done--having won two of three-- and is jacked up in class off the recent purchase. 

 

      Race 5

1.Frontier Market

2.Union Ranks

3.Labeq

#5 FRONTIER MARKET simply appears to be to strong for this bunch, given the gaudy collection of BSF's and all. Yeah, the layoff lines for this five year old are a bit of a concern, but Brown is a nifty 4 for 8 with Belmont turf runners going long off L/O's of 52 to 104 days ( 7-2 or less ) with an ROI of $2.60. #4 UNION RANKS didn't show much in the overture, but me thinks that was a prep for today, as this one may be a bit more suited for the turf than the 194 Tommy belies. Maternal granddam was 24:7-4-7 on the stuff, earning a touch more than 350 big ones, and keep in mind that colt went for more than 4X the stud fee at auction. #11 LABEQ is another pricey sort who's on the improve & is nicely bred for today's surface transition.  OFF TURF: 4-5-1-2-10

 

Race 6

1.Buddy's Tiz

2.King of Spades

3.Nutzforboltz

#6 BUDDY'S TIZ had a slightly troubled but extremely game third place finish against slightly weaker on 4/7, and 14% shedrow is a crisp 3 for 5 w/allowance turf routers who were 1-2-3 < 41 days back ( beneath 16-1 ) with the winners coming back a healthy $16, $13, & $13. #4 KING OF SPADES has hit the board in 2 of 3 "legit" off the shelf attempts & owns a 2-11 mark at the trip. Could spice things up a bit. #5 NUTZFORBOLTZ comes in today of a game placing and has done good work here; Franco with a grand salami at Aqueduct a week back.  OFF TURF: 6-7-2-9-4

 

Race 7 

1.Satisfy

2.Downtown At Noon

3.Sister Patricia

#1 SATISFY is a little late in beginning her working life today, but there are a couple of well hidden bullets on the worktab ( one last year before she was shut down & another on 3/11. This one is a half to Rectify, who went 6 for 21 in dirt dashes ( earning 315K ) and not only did dad win his only dirt sprint by a dozen, but the paternal grandsire was the top notch Distorted Humor, who was a specialist at this tango ( 7-17 on a glib surface ). 423 Tomlinson figure is absolutely monstrous, and don't forget--this is a 4 year old facing younger. #2 DOWNTOWN AT NOON hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but there's a sizzling breeze over the training track staring right atcha ( 47 & 3 ), and this one has yet to miss the super and picks up a live rider. #6 SISTER PATRICIA has had backers going to confession for uttering vulgarities, as she's lost all nine ( while hitting the board ) at average odds of $3.98-1 ( thrice as the fave ). Caveat emptor, but if you see this one creep into the 5-1/6-1 range, may be worth a shot.  NOTE: AS Of 9:55 PST, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

 Race 8

1.Polar Jet

2.Killybegs Captain

3.Emancipation

#7 POLAR JET is extremely sharp these days, having closed out the exacta in his last triad, with exceptional speed figures in each of them. Rice switches to Irad today, and he was successful the only time getting legged up aboard this one. Seems legit. #1 KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN has a win and a second from as many "2nd off the L/O" outings, and the score came over this strip. Grey colt also has a 4:1-1-0 mark when breaking from the inside ( with the placing overlapping w/the above stat ) & Arroyo has good familiarity here. Things to like. #2 EMANCIPATION proclaimed himself a winner here first time out, but that ( and two decent subsequent starts ) occurred last summer, so there's obvious cause for concern here. Take a gander pre race if possible.

 

 Race 9

1.Great Stuff

2.Field of Courage

3.Ready for Rye

#4 GREAT STUFF has been facing some salty critters on the sand of late, and switches over to the blades for the first time today. Pedigree tells us that this one should be just as good -- if not better -- on the stuff. Six year old "horse" ( You hide from that vet, buddy ! ) is a model of consistency. Slightest edge in a tough race to decipher, #7 FIELD OF COURAGE is 1 for 3 in second off the break tries, is 1 fer 3 in 1X turf attempts ( none of those overlapping ), and is still claim protected after Rudy dropped 80 large for this one two starts ago. Must be left in the mix.#3 READY FOR RYE is 4:1-1-1 in 2nd off the L/O starts ( 1-1 on the turf )and totes the second featheriest impost of his career; gelding has done good work beneath Luis.  OFF TURF: 4-2-1-5-3

 

 Race 10

1.Breeze Burner

2.Lex Vegas

3.Final Chapter

#11 BREEZE BURNER has nice zip, and while this one gets on the grass for the first time today, Contessa ( 10% on the norm ) is 17:4-3-1 when going from dirt to turf with Elmont sprinters art 12-1 or less. The winners came back $11, $21, $14 & $6, and you should know that this one's paternal grandmom was 9:2-2-0-2 at this kinda deal. #6 LEX VEGAS is dropped well below the price claimed from the last day of summer in '17 here, and we like that Saez is encouraged to ride. #9 FINAL CHAPTER is 2 for 4 here ( 4-19 at other venues ), and as he's lost a ton of ground in his last troika, could jazz things up if able to get over to a cozy slot early on.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-11-10(MTO)1(MTO)-1A

 

Belmont          ( Current )    1-9      ( $8.40 )      Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )       Favorites Win %:  4-9        ( 44.4% )  _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )   Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win %: 61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )   Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-26     ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 1-2   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 12-24    ( 50.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout      


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8483 ($14,607.80) Beatable Favorites : 266-946( 28.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 3123-8577( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9051   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 281-1014( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3286-9164( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017