KevinCoxItem


We finished up the Aqueduct meet in decent fashion on Sunday with 5 Rolling Doubles of $18, $46, $75, $60 & $4...3 Rolling Pk. 3's of $116, $399 & $216...a Rolling Pk. 4 of $1,700...& a Rolling Pk. 5 of $3,463 ( which gives us Pk. 5's of $3,463, $5,000 & $25,171 in the past four days ).

Let's keep it going into today's opener !

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont - Opening Day - 4/27

 

 Race 1

1.Hard Hitter

2.Blame Us All

3.Lightning Buzz

#3 HARD HITTER was a lively runner up in a similar spot a bit over a month ago, and has a win & a third from as many starts in 3rd off the layoff spots. Rudy more than doubles his normative 19% rate with runners fitting all this exact criteria below 11-1, as he's 10:4-2-2-1 in that regards ( $14, $4, $6 & $5 ). #6 BLAME US ALL has a decent collection of speed figures & finds himself at his lowest level to date; Cohen with a nicely priced pair here on Saturday. #2 LIGHTNING BUZZ takes the obligatory hike after the score a dozen days ago & makes sense. 

 

      Race 2

1.Way Over Budget

2.Buy For Less

3.Majestic Kiss

#4 WAY OVER BUDGET showed a touch of early hoof in the initial dirt try eight days ago, and should improve off that effort. Switched from an apprentice to a journeyman today and rates a mild edge. #3 BUY FOR LESS put forth an honest showing in a nearly identical spot on April 6th and is logical once again. #5 MAJESTIC KISS exits a race where three runners came back to win their next outings ( from five different races ) improving their speed figs by an average of 16 points ( running an avg. Beyer of 48.8, which would lay over this field. Watch out.  

 

Race 3

1.Paula's Pistol

2.Dune Buggy

3.My Girl Annie

There are three decent DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get to 'em in no frills fashion. #7 PAULA'S PISTOL: 20% Nevin is 11:5-2-2 with locally based mid level dirt sprinters off breaks of 56-112 days ( < 7-1 ). The winners came back $3, $7, $7, $9 & $4, and of course we like the draw. #6 DUNE  BUGGY: Rice ( 23% day to day ) is a nice 7:3-0-2-2 with 2nd off the layoff dirt dashers at Belmont who were ITM last out& owns a $2.08 ROI as well. #4 MY GIRL ANNIE: Brown ( 26% when brushing his choppers in the morning ) nearly triples that batting average ( 5 fer 7 ) with mid level runners who got the diploma 40-120 days ago, and there's a $3.51 return on investment with that sampling. 

 

      Race 4

1.Courageous Change

2.Sardonyx

3.Gentle Annie

We know that the connections of #10 COURAGEOUS CHANGE have been hankering to get this one on the turf for quite a while, but the way the calendar panned out, it just didn't happen until today. There are absolutely no world beaters in here, and trainer/jockey combo teamed up for a $39 winner at Aqueduct on Thursday. The only time Jimmy has been handed a horse & spotted her on the turf ( < 60-1 ) resulted in a $43 win. Hmmmm.... #3 SARDONYX takes the biggest drop in the game today & has blinks added while getting Irad in the irons. Needs some pace up in front. #5 GENTLE ANNIE is a price addition for the tri.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-6-7

 

      Race 5

1.Loki's Vengeance

2.Gypsum Johnny

3.Pat On the Back

#4 LOKI'S VENGEANCE has that nice type of "declining" record that we've grown to love ( 29:9-5-2 ) as it shows he knows where the wire is, and Rice is a boiling 9:6-1-0-1 with second off the shelf ungraded dirt runners going short who won last out & are 9-2 or lower today ( about a $4 ROI there, too ). #2 GYPSUM JOHNNY ( who gets Johnny in the saddle for the first time ) is 4-13 at Big Sandy ( 4-19 elsewhere ) & the above conditioner is a tidy 6:3-1-1-1 with runners fitting this criteria ( 45-89 days ) beneath 27-1 ( $12, $6 & $6 ). #5 PAT ON THE BACK is reunited with Double D today, and the two have done excellent work together. 

 

Race 6

1.Spring Folly

2.War Canoe

3.Saratoga Treasure

Wiiiiiide open affair here, so tread lightly. #10 SPRING FOLLY has gone 1-1-1 in all three turf dashes to date ( at improving adjusted #'s ), and the Mad Genius knows a thing or to about having 'em prepped off a break. #7 WAR CANOE has been given a bit of a freshening since hitting the board in ten straight, and closed out the triple in his only start off a break. #1A SARATOGA TREASURE is another returning off an elongated break, but did little wrong in either outing, & pre layoff pilot returns, which is always nice to see.  OFF TURF: 10-5-8-1-9

 

Race 7 

1.Willburnmoney

2.Mizzen Max

3.Sugarille

#2 WILLBURNMONEY dead heated for 3rd place money versus open foes in the comebacker, and should appreciate he class relief in the second off the layoff try. Timid choice. #6 MIZZEN MAX has been befallen by some layoff lines in her abbreviated career, but had yet to miss the exacta, and Velazquez has done some good things for his outfit. #5 SUGARILLE has rarely run a bad race since being transitioned to the sand last summer, and may sweeten up the exotics a bit. 

 

 Race 8

1.Bernay ( Fr )

2.Rocketry 

3.Roman Approval

#3 BERNAY (FR) is available for purchase today, & that's highly relevant, as Brown is a sensational 7:5-1-1 when doing this to his 3rd off the shelf turf runners ( $3.85 return on investment ). #7 ROCKETRY is a steady if not spectacular sort who has posted some decent Beyer figures along the way, and may come along for a share. #1 ROMAN APPROVAL is 7:3-2-1 when starting from the inside, 10:4-3-0 in Elmont, & 5:2-3-0 at this dist. Maker confidently hikes this one up 50%+ off the claim, and grab him by the tail to get the glory.  OFF TURF: 7-5-2-8(MTO)-1

 

 Race 9

1.Exceed the Goal

2.Ailish

3.Kreesie

#2 EXCEED THE GOAL split thje field in the overture, and has the wonder drug added today while retaining the original jockey. There should be a decent price offered on this one; lass is a half to a 2 for 6 turf sprinter ( 37K ). #3 AILISH displayed some decent early hoof first time out, and has been freshened up a bit since then. Double D comes back. #6 KREESIE lost by a sliver when a well clear runner up in this race in early November & gets Irad.  OFF TURF: 1-2-3-13(MTO)-10

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )   Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )   Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-26     ( $34.40 )     Beatable Favorites: 1-2   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 12-24    ( 50.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1812-8483 ($14,607.80) Beatable Favorites : 266-946( 28.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 3123-8577( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1897-9051   ($15,427.00) Beatable Favorites : 281-1014( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3286-9164( 35.9% )+/-: -14.6% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017