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Bombs away yesterday ( tho not for us ) and we wrap things up at Aqueduct for the next six months or so.  Unless a nice price or two comes in this afternoon, our ROI will slide a bit, however, we've once again secured a successful meet in our original "Beatable Favorites" department.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #7 Pursuing Justice ( Note: As of 11:36 P.M. Saturday, there are NO Beatable Favorites. )


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 4/22 - Closing Day

 

 Race 1

1.In the Lee

2.Inflexibility

3.Flipcup

#4 IN THE LEE ( in typical Shug fashion ) has gotten better and better with each & every turf start, and ( like McG. often does ) was given some time off to sort things out over the winter. 17% clan owns a doozy 9:6-1-1 ledger with optional turf stayers in the 98-173 day bracket, and the winners came back quite healthily, thank you ( $19, $4, $8, $6, $23 & $8 ). Local win here as well. #5 INFLEXIBILITY bent but didn't break when last spotted north of the border on 10/22, and not only has this one scored off an elongated break, but ( from a small sampling ) Brown is 5:3-0-2 with local runners of this ilk off sabbaticals of 118-236 days ( $2, $6 & $9 ). #2 FLIPCUP is 8:1-1-5 off layoffs & 5:0-3-1 at the dx.; seems like a legit 'unders' candidate.  OFF TURF: 5-4-3-2-1

 

      Race 2

1.Dancingwthdaffodls

2.Take Charge Aubrey

3.Cartwheel

#4 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS has closed out the exacta in three straight, owns a nice collection of blinkers, is second time eye cups today, and 11% conditioner is 6:2-2-0 with Aqueduct runners fitting this criteria who were 1-2-3 < 45 days back ( $6 & $11 ). #6 TAKE CHARGE AUBREY bested 7 of 11 in the unveiling and sheds 64 ounces off that effort. The backers of #1 CARTWHEEL were doing anything but after Hennig runner burned some baccala in the 2nd off the L/O try, but if you can forgive that, then what you see is a nice progression of speed figures since starting things out. Another one dropping weight today.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 PURSUING JUSTICE doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?  NOTE: AS OF 11:36, DUE TO A SLIGHT ERROR, THIS ONE IS NOT A BEATABLE FAVORITE.  NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3

1.Indian Ghost

2.Panama Ed

3.Diamond Setter

There are three small, but decent DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get to 'em in a no frills manner. #1 INDIAN GHOST: Papa Engleheart ( 22% on the norm ) is 6:4-0-2 with first off the claim dirt stock who scored < 165 days back & are beneath the 6-1 watermark; there's a sub category of 2 fer 2 @ Ozone Park. #7 PANAMA ED ( uncoupled entrymate with the above: Above shotcaller is 2-5 with dirt dashers who snagged the diploma 65-170 days ago & are < 40-1 today. #3 DIAMOND SETTER: 18% Mark Casse is 3-11w/mid level dirt sprinters who missed the board 20-40 days ago. Lone score came right here.

 

      Race 4

1.Appealing Henry

2.Son of Mine

3.Go Big Or Go Home

#2 APPEALING HENRY has a win & a runner up from three off the bench tries, and Gullo is a jazzy 12:4-1-1-2 with allowance runners going short on the sand off breaks of 47-95 days ( < 15-1 ). The payoffs for those victors were $10, $6, $19 & $36, and this pilot has done some good work w/these connections. #3 SON OF MINE has improved over his last quartet, and should be shooting for the hat trick this afternoon, but was DQ's in last at 3 to 5. 31% Irad climbs aboard today and Rudy Rod owns an 18:6-3-5-1 mark with locally based runners under these conditions who crashed the party 15-31 days back & are below 10-1 today. #7 GO BIG OR GO HOME was awful in the last, but we'll chunk in the mix because of the man leading him over.

 

      Race 5

1.Proper Freud

2.Major League

3.Adventist

Not really feeling the mojo for this race, so tread lightly. #7 PROPER FREUD has that nice type of declining record that we love to see ( 41:11-7-2 ) and hasn't been at this level in quite some time. Like we said--meeeeekest of selections. #3 MAJOR LEAGUE ( uncoupled barnmate w/the above ) is another sliding down the ladder while retaining a top jock who was aboard for the last disappointment. #9 ADVENTIST may wake up with today's surface change.

 

Race 6

1.Rockin Jo

2.Year of the Kitten

3.Analyze Your Luck

#9 ROCKIN JO has been beset by back-to-back layoff lines, but went 65-66 in finishing first & second in his lone turf routes, last year, so with normal maturity a figure in the 70's is definitely attainable today. Carlito ( 12% when brushing his choppers in the morning ) is 4-10 when taking the hood off his turf stayers that are beneath the 40-1 watermark ( < 145 days ), and just look at these prices: $64, $14, $24 & $7 ! #7 YEAR OF THE KITTEN ( "Meow, baby." ) is pretty steady from a Beyer standpoint, and MM is a lively 27:11-4-1-4 when having his routers switch from the carpet fibers to the grass blades off breaks of 2-4 dozen days ( ITM in last & 12-1 or lower ). There's a nice ROI for that sampling and I. Ortiz gets legged up. #1 ANALYZE YOUR LUCK undergoes a gamut of changes for Pletcher/Repole, as they put this one up for sale for the first time today while going 1X to 2X & brown to green while affixing the blinks for today's 3rd off the shelf try.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-4-7-2-6

 

Race 7 

1.Retonova

2.A True Giant

3.Giant Boo Boo

We won't be going any deeper than our exacta choices for all our rolling action... #7 RETONOVA was visually impressive when getting the job done at first asking, while closing from the inside to win going away at 11-1. What makes that all the more impressive is the fact that this guy is a June bred, so you know he was giving away maturity to the rest of the field that day. Draws perfectly here, and three of the four returnees from that heat have been ITM, with an average speed figure improvement of 15.3 points. #5 A TRUE GIANT essentially went pillar to post first time out eleven days ago and posted a number nearly identical to that of the above. Logical. #1 GIANT BOO BOO is a maiden facing winners, but was a game runner up in the overture & drops four pounds while sliding in from the ten hole to the wood.  NOTE: AS OF 11:24, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 8

1.Oh Zap

2.Significant Form

3.Wealth Effect

Today's 8th is named after the turfer Memories of Silver, and what we've enclosed is video of said runner winning the inaugural running of The Lake George up at Saratoga ( for those needing a little warmth ! ). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQXqAUseKxc Worth noting that six jockeys from this 1996 race are in The Hall of Fame, with two of them still riding ! We'll blast off with the 3-2-1 tri, starting with the #3 OH ZAP on top. Filly improved her Beyer in replicating the debut victory over this course around turkey time, and C-Squared did the smart thing and put this one away for the winter. Lasix is now in the mix today, and Christophe is 10:4-2-2-1 when adding juice to turf routers who won 70-240 days back & are now under 11-1 ( $12, $15, $10 & $7 ). #2 SIGNIFICANT FORM brought a perfect record into the Breeders' Cup, and although losing that day, by no means embarrassed herself. Some nice moves down at Palm Meadows for today's comebacker. #1 WEALTH EFFECT ( uncoupled stablemate with 'Form ) went 61-64-67 in her triad of turf outings to start things out in '17 before giving the dirt a whirl. Results were humdrum, so back on the gramma she goes.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-5-3

 

 Race 9

1.Bust Another

2.Mighty Zealous

3.Tribecca

#10 BUST ANOTHER is 5 for 12 at this distance ( just 1 for 12 at other trips ) and Pino ( from a limited sampling ) is 3 fer 6 w/ 3rd off the shelf optional dirt sprinters who missed the party in last. Bustin Stones gelding digs it here as well. #11 MIGHTY ZEALOUS waited until the age of seven ( & his 42nd call to the post ) to post a lifetime best numero, but there it was on March 30th ( 92 ). Hard trier has partaken in the exacta in 14 of 23 at this dx., and Contessa ( now a few thousandth's of a point below the 10% mark over the last five years ) is 5 for 11 with those of this ilk coming off a win within this timeframe ( < 10-1 ). #1 TRIBECCA is 3 for 6 when breaking from the innermost two lots ( 1-8 from the three hole on out ), and 8% Sciacca is a crisp 3-11 regarding runners of this caliber who were 1-2-3 15-31 days back at 10-1 or beneath ( $4 $9 & $13 ).  NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 Race 10

1.Overnight Success

2.Too Much Data

3.Garsoon

#9 OVERNIGHT SUCCESS was carried out in the first start, and something must've went slight amiss that day as he hasn't been heard from since. From a teensie sampling, 24% bossman is 2 for 4 when spotting his second timers on the lawn ( going short ) at 12-1 or less. We LOVE bullet breezes out of the gate, and this one had just that on 4/5. #8 TOO MUCH DATA was a bit green, but still ended up a well clear second when debuting vs. weaker down in Hallandale Beach. Crisp work since then. #2 GARSOON closes out our day, week, month and meet. I want to thank all our loyal readers & followers at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Empire Bets, Interbets & Idabets for their patronage, and interaction both here and on Twitter. We will see you all on Friday from 'Big Sandy'---beautiful, Belmont Park !


Aqueduct:       ( Current ):  14-129   ( $164.60 )   Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )   Favorites Win % :56-129  ( 43.4% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )   Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )   Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes     ( Final ):  4-26     ( $34.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 1-2   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 12-24    ( 50.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 50-324   ( $454.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-49 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 106-324  ( 32.7% )  +/-: -29.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )    Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163-587    ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):1797-8345 ($14,430.30)   Beatable Favorites : 260-931( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 3062-8439( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.5%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1882-8913 ($15,249.50)  Beatable Favorites : 275-999( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 3225-9025( 35.7% )+/-: -14.5% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017