KevinCoxItem


Opening Day here is beginning to feel like "Groundhog Day"

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 1/12

 

Race 1 -

1.Vilma

2.Hembree

3.California Swing

We start out the card with three solid DRF Formulator angles, so let's get right to 'em... #6 VILMA tackles a tough bunch in the first start off more than a half'a year break, but Rice is nice with allowance dirt dashers off hibernations of 133-267 days at odds of less than 12-1 as she's 7-19 in that regards with an ROI of more than three clams. Note that that the gelding is 1 for 3 when breaking from the outside, compared to just a 1-16 mark otherwise. #5 HEMBREE is a nibblah by nature ( 13:1-6-2 ) but 9% Rudy Rod is 5 fer 15 with local runners of this ilk who crashed the party 27-53 days back & are 5-1 or lower. #4 CALIFORNIA SWING is still claim protected today after being snagged for 35K two back, and Barker is a tidy 2 for 6 with second off the claim stock who hit the board 18-36 days ago ( $5 & $12 ). NOTE: As of 7:54 P.M. Wednesday, due to an EHV-1 virus, the #6 will be scratched.  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2 -

1.Cocktail Countess

2.Solitary Gem

3.Netti's Legacy

#1 COCKTAIL COUNTESS has beaten just one home in two starts thus far, but takes the biggest drop in the game today and barn is a juicy 5 for 10 when doing just that to their dirt sprinters in the 23-47 day bracket at mutuels beneath 4-1 ( $9, $4, $3, $7 & $5 ). #8 SOLITARY GEM slides down the ladder for the second straight time and has the blinkers added after a decent showing. Draws well & is totally logical. #7 NETTI'S LEGACY gets juice for today's second start. NOTE: As of 7:56 P.M. Wednesday, due to an EHV-1 virus, the #1 will be scratched.  NOTE: AS OF 12:04, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3 -

1.Connie A

2.Cotton Candie Cutie

3.Baronet

#4 CONNIE A showed zilch in the initial turf foray, but in all fairness, this one ain't bred to well for the gramma and the dirt form is slightly better. Filly catches a glib surface for the first time today and rates the slimmest of margins in a wide open sextet. #1 COTTON CANDIE CUTIE has partaken in the exacta in 7 of 9, and exits a race where her second place finish was sandwiched between three other runners who all won next time out, increasing their speed figures by an average of 11.3 points next time out. Note that this on is 9:2-4-1-2 when breaking from the innermost four slots ( 100% ITM rate ) and just 11:2-2-1-0 from the five hole on out. Some runners like to work while covered up, and this gal should sit the perfect trip today. #6 BARONET has a 3rd & a 4th in both starts when going from turf to dirt, & is 5:0-2-1-1 when starting from the outside. May spice things up beneath.

 

Race 4 -

1.War Eagle's Return

2.Afleet Martini

3.Strueves Star

#5 WAR EAGLE'S RETURN is a very steady sort ( 29:5-7-4 ) who lost by less than a length in first start off the claim for Papa Englehart ( after being hiked 25% ), and after earning a couple of bucks to offset expenses, is spotted right back at the purchase price today. There's a fantastic trainer stat in play here, as 12% barn is a serious 12:8-2-2 with second off the claim mid level dirt dashers who crashed the party 17-35 days ago & are beneath the 4-1 watermark today ( $2.74 ROI. #7 AFLEET MARTINI missed by just a sliver when last seen up at the Lakes, is 2:1-1-0 locally, and finished 3rd in his only "third off the L/O" try. #6 STRUEVES STAR sure is a game gelding & has crashed the party in 11 of 13 at the trip. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Sol the Freud

2.Bluegrass Prevails

3.Brimstone

#2 SOL THE FREUD is a fairly consistent sort who's made the tri in half of his tries at this distance, and 4% Legall is a crisp 3 for 5 with Aqueduct stock returning in less than 85 days beneath 11-1 ( $13, $12 & $6 ). Switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today, and we've always been fond of that angle. #1 BLUEGRASS PREVAILS is second off the claim today for Rudy Rod, and he nearly doubles his normative rate ( 8-22 ) with runners fitting the aforementioned criteria in races of this ilk ( ITM < 41 days back ) at odds > 1.25-1 & < 3.75-1, and has a positive ROI in that regards. #3 BRIMSTONE was 3rd in his only try at this level & has top flight speed while owning a good record over this strip.

 

Race 6 -

1.Desert Affair

2.Kimmel Entry

3.Goldtown

#7 DESERT AFFAIR is the kind of professional maiden that your daddy told you to stay away from. You know the type -- the kind with that 18:M-5-8 boxscore. That being said, the first outing for Persaud was decent enough, and Randi ( just a 6% conditioner ) is a lively 6:3-1-1 with those who fit this criteria who were 1-2-3 9-19 days ago & are between 2-1 & 8-1 today ( $9, $9 & $6 ). #1 IMPAZIBLE CREEK ( 2-5 barn stat with those taking this kind of drop off a break of less than 184 days at 2-1 or lower ) & #1A IMPAZIBLE WOMAN ( a solid collection of speed figures ) are both completely logical. #6 GOLDTOWN hasn't been seen since last year ( ya get it ? ), but all the runners from both outings amassed cumulative next out records of 19:5-2-3, and that's dam good for maidens. $300,000 purchase is up for sale for the first time today and rates a shot.

 

Race 7 -

1.Salty Smile

2.My Roxy Girl

3.Paranoia

#9 SALTY SMILE procured the diploma at the end of November for Rodriguez, and Rudy owns a 10:4-1-0-2 mark with those who graduated 33-67 days back & are entered in an allowance heat at beneath 10-1 odds ( $4, $5, $3 & $16 ). #8 MY ROXY GIRL shoots for the hat trick today, and Friedman ( who's regularly a 10% trainer with a 36% ITM rate ) is 33%/67% ( 12:4-2-2 ) with those who tallied one up 19-39 days back & are lower than 7-1 in a dirt dash ( $9, $11 & $15 ). #2 PARANOIA hung up a career best number in grabbing the sheepskin last time out, and we'll toss this one in at 30-1. NOTE: The #5 will be scratched.

 

Race 8 -

1.Quezon

2.Absatootly

3.She's All Ready

We're seeing this as a two horse deal, but will give the nod to the #6 QUEZON based on the consistency, score over the oval, and 2 for 3 mark at the dx. #2 ABSATOOTLY is another who has fared well at Aqueduct, can send or rate, & is much better over a fast track then the wet stuff, and the "good" track score in last was a career best # in that department. Expecting a pro-rated improvement today & is a must use in all your rolling action. #5 SHE'S ALL READY is a bit light from number's perspective, but digs it here. NOTE: #4 Holiday Disguise will be scratched.  NOTE: AS OF 1:25, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 9 -

1.Scorpion Bowl

2.Orchid Party

3.Forever Daisy

With the aforementioned EHV-1 virus in the Rice barn at Belmont, she is pretty much down to just her Aqueduct based stock until they can sort things out over there. That being the case, we've come across one of the strongest Formulator angles yet here with her #10 runner, SCORPION BOWL. Let's just lay it out there for ya: Second time starters/dirt/sprint/maiden special weight fillies/ > 1.75-1 & < 5.25-1/100 days or less, she is an otherworldly 16:13-1-2 !! 'Nuff Said. #5 ORCHID PARTY showed fine mettle when finishing fourth in the career starter, but ended up in a new barn afterwards for all her efforts. The good news is that this clan is 6:2-1-1-1 with fresh purchases on the sand in the 30-72 day zip code, with mutuels of $27 & $4. #8 FOREVER DAISY has gotten better and better & catches a fast track for the first time.  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'s 3 & 2 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct          ( Final )       60-306  ( $626.20 )      Beatable Favorites   10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %  105-306 ( 34.3% )

Malibu Stakes   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-306   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-306  ( 32.3% )  +/-: -30.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1726-8006 ($13,902.70)Beatable Favorites : 255-912( 28.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 2931-8089( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.2%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1811-8574 ($14,721.90)Beatable Favorites : 270-980 ( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 3094-8676 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


 CoxLA2017