KevinCoxItem


Well let's give this year opener another crack, shall we ? 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 1/11- Thinking of "Bijou"

 

Race 1 -

1.Holland Park

2.Roaming Union

3.Hoard

#2 HOLLAND PARK was a well clear runner up when disappointing slightly in the career starter a month back, and as the Tomlinson number for that sprinting dx. is the same as today's route ( 392 ) at the very least you can expect a similar Beyer. That being said, McL. is 3 for 5  with second timers on the dirt stretching out for the first time ( ITM 16-48 days ago ) at this level at < 5-1 ( $6, $5 & $4 ). #3 ROAMING UNION has been a part of the super in five straight & we see no reason this one can't be part of the action once again. #1 HOARD rounds out the top three.

 

Race 2 -

1.Panama Ed

2.American Power

3.Diamond Setter 

#5 PANAMA ED put it all together last time out when getting the diploma in a career best effort. Sometimes when the liught bulb comes on, it can stay on & we'll make this one the meeeeekest of selections. #1 AMERICAN POWER got the job dine at first asking for Servis, and while he could've left this one down in Florida, he must've seen this starter allowance race in the condition book & felt it'd be much easier than anything down south. Note that the second & third place finishers from that day both came back to win, thereby flattering this one's score. #7 DIAMOND SETTER ( by 'Gemologist'---ya get it ? ) is another entering today off a nice maiden breaking effort, and Double-D is getting better and better.

 

Race 3 -

1.Super Allison

2.Frostie Anne

3.Riot Worthy

Secondary feature of the day is the Bay Ridge stakes, and for those who wanna know where Bay Ridge is, just think of 'Saturday Night Fever' ! #3 SUPER ALLISON is 2:0-1-0 in 2nd off the L/O tries, 4:1-0-0 going two turns on the dirt, and is 2:1-0-0 when toting 116 pounds or less ( no overlapping races ). That totals up o an 8:2-1-0 mark in a few relevant categories, and there are a couple of nicely hidden morning moves for today's comebacker. . #4 FROSTIE ANNE is 3 for 5 at this oval, and how can you leave an animal like that out of the equation? #5 RIOT WORTHY is a nibblah by rote ( 24:4-11-3 ), so factoring that in with her affinity for the strip is enough reason to slide underneath. 

 

 

Race 4 -

1.Midnight Mission

2.Preservationist

3.Stan the Man

#3 MIDNIGHT MISSION is a four year old making his first start for Pletcher today, and as that's something that doesn't happen all too often with Pletcher, some bells went off & we did a little research. Over the last five years, with male runners fitting all this criteria at < 4-1, he's 3:2-1-0 ( $10 & $3 ), but more importantly one of those winners was the uuber talented Cross Traffic. #7 PRESERVATIONIST has burned baccala in both stats to date, but let's be forgiving, as the debut was from the wood, and the comebacker was after a year & a half hiatus. Eligible to fire off a big one today. #5 STAN THE MAN has put together back to back solid numbers & is obviously a must include in the 3rd off the layoff try.

 

Race 5 -

1.Familyofroses

2.Perina's Pride

3.Maddizaskar

#3 FAMILYOFROSES is a nibbler by rote ( 42:5-10-10 ), but finds herself at her lowest level to date, and DeLauro has won both times he's halved his stock ( $7 & $5 ) and gal has done well here. #1 PERINA'S PRIDE is 0-4 when starting from the inside & high percentage barn is 9 for 14 with fresh acquisitins in this type of race at less than 4-1. #6 MADDIZASKAR takes a substantial drop from the purchase price three back and is a threat as she missed by only a half against 16K foes in the penultimate outing. 2 for 6 mark at the trip ( in comparison to being 3-19 otherwise ) helps the cause as well. 

 

Race 6 -

1.Tale of Mist

2.Asphalt Paving

3.Three to Thirteen

#2 TALE OF MIST has closed out the tri in three straight and is confidently hiked up in class today in making the first start off the claim for Toscano. In a very limited sampling, barn is 2 for 5 when buying one and spotting them in a dirt dash while stepping them up 50% or more at odds beneath 8-1 ( 25 days or less ). The winners came back $17 & $5, and this one has hit the board in 2 of 3 here. Mild edge. #5 ASPHALT PAVING has a decent overall body of work & missd by only a neck in the most recent "second off the L/O" try. #7 THREE TO THIRTEN won the only time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump.

 

Race 7 -

1.Love That Jazz

2.Giantinthemoonlite

3.Mighty Zealous

#2 LOVE THAT JAZZ has not gained ground in the lane in nine straight, but is 4 for 13 at the trip, and Baker ( from a small study ) is 2 fer 3 when stepping up new purchases 50% or more ( $9 & $3 ). Note that this one is 3:1-1-0 in first off the layoff tries as well. #5 GIANTINTHEMOONLITE ( second half of an uncoupled entry with the above ) has a propensity of being a fringe player, but Charlie owns a 4-13 mark with locally based optional dirt dashers who hit the board 15-50 days back & are < 8-1 ( $4, $11, $4 & $12 ). Logical "unders" candidate. #4 MIGHTY ZEALOUS owns a steady 7:1-3-3 ledger at The Big A and was recentky a reclaim by Contessa. In excellent form these days. 

 

Race 8 -

1.Westwood

2.Tommy T

3.Polar Jet 

We're seeing this as a two horse race. #1 WESTWOOD has really turned things around in his last two--getting the diploma in one, and missing by just a neck in his first try against winners, and draws towards the inside once again, which will enable Trevor to utilize that early speed & save all the ground. Logical. #2 TOMMY T has done little wrong in his career to date -- having yet to miss a superfecta while posting some solid numbers -- and should be no worse than second in this spot. #8 POLAR JET has done miracles since being transferred over to the Rice barn in winning both starts while increasing his Beyers tremendously, and should be right in the thick of things turning for home. 

 

Race 9 -

1.Trinni Juice

2.Whyamisolucky

3.Hong Kong Gardens

#3 TRINNI JUICE was a game runner up at boxcar odds right here in the second off the L/O try, and aside from the fact that the figure earned was solid, it's hard not to root for a $1,000 New York Bred ridgling. #9 WHYAMISOLUCKY has shown vast improvement since being switched over to the Carlos Martin barn after the career starter, and that's despite wide sojhourns in the last two. Drops 10K today & is 2nd time Lasix. #8 HONG KONG GARDENS split the field first time out and these connections have poped at a price in the past. Toss under. 

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct          ( Final )       60-306  ( $626.20 )      Beatable Favorites   10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %  105-306 ( 34.3% )

Malibu Stakes   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-306   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-306  ( 32.3% )  +/-: -30.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1726-8006 ($13,902.70)Beatable Favorites : 255-912( 28.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 2931-8089( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.2%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1811-8574 ($14,721.90)Beatable Favorites : 270-980 ( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 3094-8676 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


 CoxLA2017