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CANCELLED

Hope you all had a fantastic New Year's Eve & day !!

Happy to say that our New Year's Eve "Get Home Safe" charity drive raised a total of more than $200 for Old Friends at Cabin Creek, Mercy Ships & The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance !! Thank you all so much.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not posted as of 3:00 A.M. New Year's Eve )


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 1/4

 

Race 1 -

1.Champagne Ruby

2.Bamboo Stick

3.Loyal Heart

#3 CHAMPAGNE RUBY owns solid figs, has been a part of the superfecta in ten straight, and gets a major jockey upgrade to Irad today; no worse than a 1-2 player. #4 BAMBOO STICK is such a game ol' mare, ain't she ? Sensational 42:16-8-5 mark tells us that her nose knows where the wire is, and boy, does she have a boatload of speed. Completes the only duo we'll be using in our rolling action. #5 LOYAL HEART is another hard knocker who is second off a "true" layoff for the first time today; as good as any for the leftover Christmas goose.

 

Race 2 -

1.Tanzania Road

2.Total Control

3.Aoife

#1 TANZANIA ROAD has made the super in 5 of 6 to begin her working life ( both here and abroad ), and Kiaran is a sublime 16:9-2-4 with locally based runners fitting this criteria who were ITM < 55 days ago & are 7-1 or less today ( with a healthy ROI too ! ). #3 TOTAL CONTROL has closed out the exacta in all three outings since being transferred over to the Lynch barn, and the aforementioned conditioner is 12:5-1-2-3 with maiden special weight dirt sprinters who crashed the fiesta less than 55 days back and are 7-2 or lower. #2 AOIFE ( an Irish name which means beauty or radiance https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aoife ) is a steady if not spectacular sort who makes just her second dirt foray today, and the lone one ( her debut ) wasn't half bad, and it came without the use of the wonder drug.

 

Race 3 -

1.Dean's Ticket

2.Kissin Cassie

3.Marnesia Big Girl

#1 DEAN'S TICKET is cycling well these days, owns a win & a third from as many starts right here, and is 2 fer 3 when breaking from the pine. Looks real strog here. #4 KISSIN CASSIE showed zippo in the comebacker, but deserves another shot making his second start at the lowest level to date. #5 MARNESIA BIG GIRL is another entering off a stinker, but drops back down to the level of the last score two starts back. Tough to dismiss the connections, too.

 

Race 4 -

1.Lady By Choice

2.Solitary Gem

3.Gia Michael

#5 LADY BY CHOICE is a bit light from a numbers perspective over the last two, but with maidens we permit ourselves to go anywhere in thei running lines ( as they're maidens for a reason ) and the effort three back vs. tougher wasn't half bad. Demand value. #4 SOLITARY GEM has blinks added after a decent effort in last, and we like when a trainer is confident enough to make an equipment change off a good try. Expecting a nice run. #1 GIA MICHAEL gets juice for her second start, and there's a jock upgrade in play as well. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Fair Regis

2.Loose

3.Tiz Rae Anna

#4 FAIR REGIS positively blitzed cheaper right here about a month back, and Falcone is no snowman when stepping up dirt runners 50% or more off a win at mutuels beneath 15-1, as ( from a teensie sampling ) he's 3:2-0-1 with payoffs of $5 & $7. Trevor a more than capable substitute for Rosario. #8 LOOSE shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reason, as this one has been transformed into a completely different animal since getting into the Rodriguez barn. What really piques our interest is the fact that she essentially replicated the maiden breaking Beyer in the first start against winners. #5 TIZ RAE ANNA is back in for a tag today & won the only other time she was up for sale.

 

Race 6 -

1.Nine Route

2.Morning Breez

3.Looking Ready

#1 NINE ROUTE either appreciated the trainer switch, layoff, or surface change when he got the diploma in a visually impressive performance right here on the 8th of last month. Jeremiah is all heart when entering those who graduated 18-36 days ago in a dirt dash at 9-2 or less, as he's a perfect 6 for 6 with that type !! ( Odds guesstimated as of this writing. ) #6 MORNING BREEZ had an excellent one of just that back on the 22nd, as he put in a best of 95 bullet that day. Obviously the speed is there, and there's a touch of class relief in play today as well. One of two speedsters in here, with the other being the #5 LOOKING READY. Said runner hasn't been seen since my birthday, but showed fine mettle in open stakes company on the lawn back then, and you can expect a jockey change as Irad has had enough of Old Man Winter and got the hell out of here for good on Sunday.

 

Race 7 -

1.Iron Power

2.The Great Samurai

3.Taoiseach

#2 IRON POWER is extremely consistent ( 39:7-6-6 ), has done well going from turf to dirt ( 1 for 3 ), and Arriaga ( who had a nice winter here last year ) is 2 for 2 when spotting fresh acquisitions in dirt routes ( OTB in last ) with payoffs of $19 & $24. Abel had a fine '17. #1 THE GREAT SAMURAI has a win & third from as many starts when breaking from the wood, and although this gelding steps up in class today, 13% clan is a lively 4 for 6 with dirt stayers who scored less than 25 days back & are beneath the 12-1 watermark today ( $10, $4, $8 & $4 ). #1 TAIOSEACH ( what the prime minister of Ireland is called ) gave an honest showing when last seen, but apparently that wasn't enough for him to keep his procreating abilities, as Schettino brought the scissors into play after that result. Chestnut chap was a runner up in his only "second off the L/O" try and has hit the board in all six starts when carrying this weight or less.

 

Race 8 -

1.Untaken

2.Special Risk

3.Isotope

#5 UNTAKEN has a win and a fourth from two one turn dirt outings, is in decent form these days, and Dylan had a triple from a truncated 4 race card here on Saturday. Meek selection in a wide open finale. #8 SPECIAL RISK is two for two in flat miles--a maiden breaker two back followed up by a tally against winners three weeks ago. Obviously we have to incorporate an animal such as this, but keep in mind that the speed figure from the last was slightly reduced from the diploma earning effort, so don't get too excited with this one. #3 ISOTOPE has given a good account of herself in all of her 1X starts, and three runners from the most recent came back to finish 1st, 3rd & 4th in their next calls to the post, improving their #'s by an average of three points in the process.

 

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Aqueduct          ( Final )       60-306  ( $626.20 )     Beatable Favorites    10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %     105-306 ( 34.3% )

Malibu Stakes   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-306   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-306  ( 32.3% )  +/-: -30.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1726-8006 ($13,902.70)Beatable Favorites : 255-912( 28.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 2931-8089( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.2%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1811-8574 ($14,721.90)Beatable Favorites : 270-980 ( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 3094-8676 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


 CoxLA2017