KevinCoxItem


TODAY'S RACING HAS BEEN CANCELLED 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #5 All Clear


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Aqueduct - 1/1 - Happy New Year !!

 

Race 1 -

1.Glennwood

2.Factor This

3.Diamond Setter

We don't really have a good read on the year's opener, so tread lightly... #6 GLENNWOOD showed zippo in the first off the claim comebacker down in Kentucky, and has switched barns for today's N.Y. debut. New conditioner adds the hood today, and Rocco been riding well of late. Timid selection. #3 FACTOR THIS has a win & two minor placings from his last three races where the saddle stayed put. Logical off the maiden win. #1 DIAMOND SETTER put it all together with a maiden breaking win 37 days back ( Was it the drop ? The Cutback ? The surface switch ? Who knows. ), and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while. Leave in the mix.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 ALL CLEAR

 

Race 2 -

1.Split Time

2.It's My Catiecat

3.Lady Rozina

Six pack signed on that we were able to shave down to three with our first draft, and of that triad, two have exceptional DRF Formulator stats behind them. #5 SPLIT TIME was a well clear runner up first time outta the box for Linda on 12/5, and 22% shedrow is a groovy 7 for 15 with second timers under these circumstances who hit the board 13-38 days back & are 5-1 or less. May regress a little bit, given the 306 Tommy, but should still be able to get the job done vs. these. #6 IT'S MY CATIECAT has closed out the tri in both starts to date, draws better today, and Albertrani ( 11% day to day ) is 12 fer 30 with runners of this ilk who crashed the party 29-59 days back & are < 6-1 today. #2 LADY ROZINA goes turf to dirt & has the hood added for her second start.

 

Race 3 -

1.Super Allison

2.Holiday Disguise

3.Frostie Anne

Secondary feature of the day is the Bay Ridge stakes, and for those who wanna know where Bay Ridge is, just think of 'Saturday Night Fever' ! #3 SUPER ALLISON is 2:0-1-0 in 2nd off the L/O tries, 4:1-0-0 going two turns on the dirt, and is 2:1-0-0 when toting 116 pounds or less ( no overlapping races ). That totals up o an 8:2-1-0 mark in a few relevant categories, and there are a couple of nicely hidden morning moves for today's comebacker. #1 HOLIDAY DISGUISE was doing some excellent work earlier in the year when winning three straight ( with improving Beyers ) but was then sent to the shelf for one reason or another by Rice. Obvious major factor if fully cranked up. #5 FROSTIE ANNE is 3 for 5 at this oval, and how can you leave an animal like that out of the equation?

 

Race 4 -

1.Acoustic

2.Son of Oahu

3.Peculiar Sensation

#7 ACOUSTIC somehow managed to go 7 wide in an 8 horse race last time out, but ended up losing by only a neck against slightly tougher. Rudy Rod is a sensational 11 for 24 with locally based mid level dirt dashers who crashed the party 15-31 days back & are 7-2 or lower today. #2 SON OF OAHU scored the only time he ran at this level, and Casse is a crisp 4-10 with those fitting this criteria who missed the baccala within the same timeframe listed above ( $6, $8, $5 & $7 ). #1 PECULIAR SENSATION got the job done in his first spin over this strip, but that was on a wet track, and we'll give more credence to this one's 5:0-0-4 lifetime ledger over a glib surface and slide him into the show spot.

 

Race 5 -

1.Blaze'n Prospector

2.Big Guy Ian

3.Marriage Fever

Battle of the dropdowns in today's 5th. #2 BLAZE'N PROSPECTOR drops about 2/3rd's in claiming price from the purchase two starts back, and as a matter of fact, slides down to an all time low today. Fella has won off the shelf before, and rates a slight edge over our next duo. #5 BIG GUY IAN ( who has tangled with the likes of Ben's Cat & Stallwalkin Dude ) is another taking a serious plunge today for Rudy, who purchased this one for more than 62K nearly a year ago, and has earned but a fraction of that back since. #4 MARRIAGE FEVER sure is an old stalwart, heh? Nine year old makes his 63rd lifetime start today & has hit the board in more than half of them. Randi seems to have made a good claim here, as runner digs it here ( 9:2-3-0 ) and enters off a win versus similar type.

 

Race 6 -

1.Cotton Candy Cutie

2.Tiz R Bella

3.Unbridledadventure

#3 COTTON CANDY CUTIE is 5:3-2-0 at this trip ( 15:1-4-2 otherwise ) has improved over her last triad, and first, third, and fourth place finishers from the last ALL cane back to win, improving their speed figures by an average of 11.3 points. Oh yeah--Rudy is a whopping 18-52 ( 35% )with allowance runners off breaks of 3-6 dozen days between the odds of even money & 3-1 ( $2.02 ROI ). You can put an upwards arrow next to the Beyers of the #6 TIZ R BELLA, as this one has been coming along nicely since starting things out in August. Granted, the breeding screams turf more than dirt, but even with a regression, could still cause a bit of a ruckus here. #5 UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE has hit the board in 7 of 9 at the trip, and that's reason enough to toss into the mix.

 

Race 7 -

1.Honor Up

2.Firenze Fire

3.Millionaire Runner

Featured race of the day is the Jerome Handicap, and it's the first race of the year where Derby points can be earned. #1 HONOR UP won by a pole over the wet stuff right here 23 days back, and what we like about that day's result is that this one ain't as well bred for the slop as a fast track, so right off the bat, the number may be better than it seems. One thing about Mott is that when he has them going good, they stay good for a while, and we'll take a shot at 6-1. we had #5 FIRENZE FIRE on top in our Breeders' Cup column, but unfortunately this one spiked a fever a few days before and just never got on track. Been given ample time by Servis to regroup, and he happens to be 11:4-5-1 with ungraded dirt dashers in the 39-77 day zip code at 2-1 or lower. #8 MILLIONAIRE RUNNER finished second in his lone one turn dirt try over a fast strip, and draws the outside for the first time. May jazz things up a bit.

 

Race 8 -

1.Reign Charger

2.Hoard

3.Curlin's New Moon

#7 REIGN CHARGER got smacked around a bit at the onset when starting things out a week and a half ago, but there's no scary drop and goes from an a apprentice to a journeyman today. Price play. #4 HOARD showed nice improvement the only other occasion when going 2X to 1X & is back in claiming company today. #1 CURLIN'S NEW MOON is eligible to move up a bit with the second time blinkers/second time angle in play today. Note that this one has a 1-3 month maturity edge over the rest of the field.

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       60-306  ( $626.20 )     Beatable Favorites    10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %     105-306 ( 34.3% )( As of Sunday at noon )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Malibu Stakes   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-306   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-306  ( 32.3% )  +/-: -30.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7700 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7783( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8268 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8370 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017