KevinCoxItem


TODAY'S RACING HAS BEEN CANCELLED

Racing was cancelled part way through the card yesterday ( Jocks said "track conditions", Track said "extreme weather" ). We've seen them ride in much, much worse here, so hope this doesn't get to be a habit, or else it will be a loooonnng winter for those low percentage trainers who depend on these races to survive.

That being said, we have achieved the "Holy Grail" for public handicappers for the 5th time, and that would be a flat bet profit for the meet !!  It was a grind, but we got there, and with a full day to spare !!

Additionally, we qualified for our second NHC seat on Friday, where we finished first from 425 contestants !! ( The largest tournament that we've won to date ! ) That marks our NINTH qualification in just six years as we look to take it down in Vegas next month !

Don't forget, we will be donating 10% of all profits from the tournament to Old Friends at Cabin Creek, The Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, and a new one this year -- Mercy Ships !! How about y'all make a donation today, or maybe match me in part once the tournament starts !!

 

In keeping with my tradition of encouraging sober driving on New Year's Eve, I'm doing the following: First 25 people ( from here &/or Twitter ) who show me ANY Uber, Lyft, or taxi receipt from 8PM to 4AM New Year's Eve will have that amount (up to $10) donated in their name to Old Friends at Cabin Creek , Mercy Ships or Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance--your choice !!

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 12/31 - Happy ( and safe !! ) New Year's Eve !!

 

Race 1 -

1.Tilt

2.Infield Is In

3.Power Boss

#2 TILT begins his professional career today, and The Toddster has been working this one out on a weekly basis since mid October at the very least, and the 48 flat gate move ( handling ) positively pops right off the page. Aforementioned conditioner is 3 for 7 with firsters fitting all these exact parameters at 2-1 or less, and tho the dam was unraced, the sire was 3 for 3 in all sprints, and this one was bought at auction for 12X the stud fee. Expecting Franco to have this one forwardly placed. #6 INFIELD IS IN had really turned the corner on the sod in the fall, and while we realize that the lone dirt try over a fast track left a lot to be desired, we like to give two chances over a particular set of conditions. #4 POWER BOSS was a lively runner up in last & can obviously move up in the 3rd off the L/O try today. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Viradia

2.Cathy Naz

3.Hug the Rail

We're seeing this as a two horse race here, and you can feel comfortable putting 'em both ( either way ) in an exacta. #6 VIRADIA takes a substantial drop today, and Rice is nice when doing that with her dirt dashers in the 17-33 day zip code at 4-1 or lower and has a positive ROI in that regards. #8 CATHY NAZ improved by about 15% from the first start to the next, and is another one taking a dip today. Carmouche takes over for Maragh who will try to get on track in Calfornia. #1 HUG THE RAIL slides in from the four hole to the wood, drops five lb.'s ( my heroine ), and catches a fast track for the 2nd time. Trainer much better than his yearly stats belie.

 

Race 3 -

1.Nothingbutasmile

2.Sandy Belle

3.Terralsole

Once again, we won't be going deeper than the top two for all our rolling action... #2 NOTHINGBUTASMILE has yet to miss a superfecta, has nice tactical speed, and is much better on a fast track than the wet stuff. Logical. #3 ANDY BELLE has that perfect type of declining record that we admire so much ( 10:3-2-1 ), but has thrown in clunkers in the last two, so exercise some caution before going all in with this one. #5 TERRALSOLE as bad as any for the leftover pizza crust.

 

Race 4 -

1.Professor Snape

2.Curtis

3.Bobby On Fleek

#3 PROFESSOR SNAPE showed a slightly changed running style in last when rating just off the pace to best cheaper here at 3 to 5. Yeah, we know about today's hike up in class, but Arriaga off to a fine start at the meet ( 4:2-0-1 ) and as a matter of fact, had an excellent 2016-2017 winter, going 5-21 ( 23.8% ), compared to winning at nearly half that rate in all other races ( 12.4% ). ( Sometimes trainers gear up for a particular time of year. ) #5 CURTIS has won 2 of 3 since being snagged by Gullo on 9/23, and while the improved speed & in addition to the Beyers being obvious to even the untrained eye, this one has never done as well when breaking from the inner four slots ( 0-7 ) as from the five hole on out ( 3-8 ). Including in our rollers. #4 BOBBY ON FLEEK is 3 for 4 over a fast track and how do you exclude a runner like that ?
 

Race 5 -

1.Missimpazi

2.Straw Hat

3.Danicngwthdaffodls

#8 MISIMPAZZI has lost ground in the lane in each and every start, but ain't facing much here, and 22% bossman is 16 for 44 with runners fitting this criteria at lower than 8-1 returning off L/O's of less than 27 days, and has a + ROI as well. #7 STRAW HAT takes the biggest drop in the game today and catches a fast strip for the first time. May spice things up a bit here for Gyarmarti. #10 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS shows a nice "Z" pattern in the bow, losing 6 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the half, before regaining 3 1/4 from that point to the line. The breeding leaves a lot to be desired, but like we mentioned, there are no Azeri's in here.

 

Race 6 -

1.Forest Blue

2.Gorgeous Charli

3.Polar Jet

#1 FOREST BLUE is 9:4-1-3 dating back to the '16 finale, and has that perfect type of "declining" record at the trip that we love to see ( 7:4-2-1 ). Gelding's been a bit of a money burner of late, in losing four straight at average odds of $2.20-1, but a square number should be ensured today and we'll take a shot. #3 GORGEOUS CHARLI is second off the L/O today ( 3:1-1-0 in that scenario ) & has hit the board in 7 of 10 at the trip; logical. #5 POLAR JET drops three pounds off a win ( an angle we're always fond of ), and is 2 fer 3 here & 3 fer 4 at the dx. while shooting for the hat trick today. Hard to exclude this duo the way things have been going of late. 

 

Race 7 -

1.Control Group

2.Sea Raven

3.Can You Diggit

#7 CONTROL GROUP is 6:4-2-0 over his last septet, and should go coast to coast like butter in toast in the annual rendition of the Alex M. Robb.  You have to admire a horse like the #1 SEA RAVEN. Soon to be seven year old has made limited starts ( 28 ) over five possible years of racing, but sure doesn't need to take his track with him, as this one has entered the gate at eight different venues during that time, ringing up more than 300K along the way. We dig that the familiar rider makes the several hundred mile sojourn. As for the show spot...can you dig it? Can you dig it ?? CAN YOU DIGGIT !!!! ( And here's "The Warriors" clip to match ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECpu3KV4Ngg )

 

Race 8 -

1.Beach Access

2.Big Thicket

3.Debauchery

Once again, we'd like to wish everyone a healthy, happy, and SAFE New Year's Eve. If you want to make it safer, don't forget to reference our offer in today's opening ! #5 BEACH ACCESS has gotten better with each start, showed improved speed in the most recent, takes one of the biggest drops in the game, and has an excellent "send" rider ( who his 5-48 since starting out 0-33 here ). Looking for a wire job. #3 BIG THICKET has a nice overall body of work, and goes from open foes to state breds today for white hot connections. MUST include. #7 DEBAUCHERY has blinkers added for the first time today, and they were most likely affixed for the rare bullet breeze at Elmont last Wednesday. Closes out the race, card, meet, AND year !! See y'all in 2018 !!!

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       60-306  ( $626.20 )     Beatable Favorites    10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %     105-306 ( 34.3% )( As of Sunday at noon )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Malibu Stakes   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-306   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-306  ( 32.3% )  +/-: -30.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7700 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7783( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8268 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8370 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017