KevinCoxItem


Okay day for us here yesterday, as we got home the early Pick 4 for $227 as well as the Pick 5 for $773.

In keeping with my tradition of encouraging sober driving on New Year's Eve, I'm doing the following: First 25 people ( from here &/or Twitter ) who show me ANY Uber, Lyft, or taxi receipt from 8PM to 4AM New Year's Eve will have that amount (up to $10) donated in their name to Old Friends at Cabin Creek , Mercy Ships or Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance--your choice !!

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 12/30

 

Race 1 -

1.Hail

2.Go

3.Mo Wine

#4 HAIL was an even third in the career starter three dozen days ago, and not only did the number from that day come back okay, but the Tomlinson figure says it was no fluke. Stone is down in Florida, so Double D picks up the mount in a race where he should be no worse than 3rd ( for those looking for .10 cents on the dollar ). Note the bullet breeze ten days after said start, followed by some maintenance moves afterwards. #2 GO has posted three solid figures in as many fast track dirt starts to date, and we like the improved speed shown in latest with the addition of a good send rider today. Another logical 1-2-3 playah. #3 MO WINE didn't show much at first asking for Pletcher, but we'll give this one another shot with the nice breeding on display. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Competitiveness

2.Lost Iron

3.Caniform

There are a couple of decent DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's slide right over to 'em. #4 COMPETITIVENESS has improved with each and every start, shoots for the hat trick today, and 17% conditioner is 2 for 5 with locally based, 2nd off the layoff, mid level dirt sprinters who won their last. Note that one of the two wins came in a second off the break scenario. #2 LOST IRON ( not the best of names for a horse ) won by a pole against slightly tougher in the last & is now curiously dropped for the third straight time by Rice. That being said, White hot Linda is a whopping 10:4-1-4 with second off the shelf dirt dashers entering off a win at < 8-1 ( $3, $8, $10 & $6 ). Front wraps were added in last so it would behoove you take a gander in the paddock. #3 CANIFORM is back at the level claimed from three starts back ( where he finished 2nd ), and is 8:2-2-3 at the trip.  NOTE: AS OF 2:16 A.M. SATURDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3 -

1.Classy Class

2.Vulcan's Forge

3.Backsideofthemoon

Five signed on but we'll only give weight to two of them. #2 CLASSY CLASS hasn't been seen in quite some time, but returns a couple of ounces lighter for McLaughlin, who is an astounding 20:12-3-4 with optional dirt sprinters in the 50-300 day range ( 95% ITM rate ) at odds of 5-2 or less. Gelding won his only try at the dx., and we'll give him the nod over #3 VULCAN'S FORGE who gets some class relief today after getting trounced in the Cigar Mile 4 weeks ago. #5 BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON usually gives a good account of himself and is 1 for 3 when breaking from the outside & 1 for 5 at Aqu. ( with one loss overlapping ).

 

Race 4 -

1.Source Control

2.Noble and True

3.I Miss My Father

#4 SOURCE CONTROL put it all together when getting up for the diploma on the Elmont sod back on 10/27, and must've come out that either unable to find a proper turf spot, or a little worse for wear, as Rudy doesn't give too many two month vacations to his stock. That being said, 19% barn nearly doubles that rate with dirt sprinters who grabbed the sheepskin 43-85 days ago, as they're 3 for 9 in that regards ( $9, $7 & $4 ). #2 NOBLE AND TRUE finds himself at his lowest level to date, and Jacobsen ( 21% on the norm ) is 4 fer 11 when dropping his 2nd off the break dirt dashers 50% or more ( OTB in last & between $1.50-1 & 9-2 ). #7 I ( assuredly ) MISS MY FATHER.

 

Race 5 -

1.Holland Road

2.Fuel the Bern

3.Set the Trappe

#1 HOLLAND ROAD has improved over his last quartet, shoots for the three bagger today, and we dig it with Dilger when he runs those who scored < 31 days ago in a one turn dirt event at odds > 1.25-1 & < 3.75-1 as he's a jazzy 10:5-3-1 with 'em ( $3.50+ ROI as well as a 2 for 3 mark with allowance type ). #4 FUEL THE BERN is still claim protected by Gargan, and one of the two dirt events on the resume' ( last year ) was okay. #2 SET THE TRAPPE was snagged off a disappointing effort by good guy Jimmy Ferraro in the most recent, and he's finishing out the year on a good note. We like that he's not back up for sale today, and Cancel ( who got a big winner home for him a couple'a weeks ago ) gets the nod.

 

Race 6 -

1.My Victoria Rose

2.Scorpion Bowl

3.Starlite Mission

On our first draft of this race we were able to halve this field of eight ( which is nice ). #8 MY VICTORIA ROSE was a wide but honest third when slightly outrunning her odds in the career starter two dozen days ago, and we always like when a trainer is unafraid to make an equipment change after a decent effort, & 'Miah is doing just that with the addition of blinkers today. Of course we love the draw and have always been a big fan of Trevor. #1 SCORPION BOWL had a bit of an unorthodox running line for the career starter, when breaking 9th, rushing up to 2nd, before dropping back to 7th and finishing 4th. Miss loses Bobblehead today and is obviously eligible for improvement, especially giving the barn's proclivity of finding the winner's circle this meet. #2 STARLITE MISSION went 48-58 in her first two starts before being shelved in mid summer. The comebacker in the goo left a bit to be desired, but may move forward in the second off the shelf try.

 

Race 7 -

1.Love That Jazz

2.Saratoga Giro

3.Giantinthemoonlite

#7 LOVE THAT JAZZ is a $25,000 re-claim by Baker, who promptly steps this one up more than 50%, despite the penultimate placing last time out. Obviously he knows that this one is a specialist at the dx. ( 4 for 13 ) and WE know that this one owns a 2-5 mark when breaking from the outermost two slots. Rocco tries hard all the time, and we'll bite at double digit odds in a wide open deal. #8 SARATOGA GIRO has crashed the exacta in 8 of 14 at the dist. and displayed a nice change of tactics in last when rallying from off the pace. #4 GIANTINTHEMOONLITE may have utilized his full 18 character allotment in the name department by the jockey club, but hasn't used all his conditions yet, as he's still eligible for this N2X deal despite several close placings. Sensible "unders" candidate.

 

Race 8 -

1.Evaluator

2.Audible

3.Honor Up

#4 EVALUATOR went from zero to hero to get up by a whisker in his initial dirt foray, and as that came under identical circumstances, why not swing away at double digit odds? Additionally, ( from a small sampling ) 17% shotcaller is 4:2-1-0 with ungraded dirt runners going short on the sand at 20-1 or less ( $3 & $8 ). #8 AUDIBLE has ascended the Beyer ladder since starting things out, and goes for three in a row today in the first try against stakes foes. DeCarlo has looked a bit weak in the lane at times, so we'll keep beneath. #3 HONOR UP sheds four pounds off a win ( an angle we always like ) and has yet to miss a superfecta.  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 9 -

1.Zenato

2.Pequeno Grande

3.Trinni Juice

#6 ZENATO drops for the second straight time today, and Bond is 3 for 9 with runners of this ilk off breaks of 47 days or less beneath the 6-1 mark ( $9, $4 & $4 ). #9 PEQUENO GRANDE ( "Little Big" ) takes the biggest drop in the game today, and is slightly better bred for the dirt than the turf he's been running on, and the grass numbers ain't half bad. Switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today. #8 TRINNI JUICE is another one taking the plunge & enters today 3rd off the break.

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       59-302  ( $622.50 )     Beatable Favorites    10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %     103-302 ( 34.1% )( As of Sat. at noon )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Malibu Stakes   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-306   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-306  ( 32.3% )  +/-: -30.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7700 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7783( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8268 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8370 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017