KevinCoxItem


Hope everyone had a fantastic Christmas Eve & Christmas Day !!

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 12/28

 

Race 1 -

1.Hold Me Down

2.Baronet

3.Spring for More

#3 HOLD ME DOWN was a solid runner up in the first start off the bench in last, and ended up in a new barn afterwards. Ronen hikes this one up in class by more than 50%, and why not as there are only four others signed on, and he collects $1,380 for finishing last ( at the worst ), then he could spot him at a more palatable level, need be. The good news tho, is that Junior takes the mount, so maybe connections looking at this as more than a "free square".  2 for 5 mark at the trip ( in comparison to a 2-27 record otherwise ) duly noted. #2 BARONET has a win & a third in as many starts when going from turf to dirt and may grind out a share. #5 SPRING FOR MORE is 5:2-1-2 when put up for sale ( 10:1-0-3 when claim protected ) & is 6:2-0-3 when breaking from the outermost three slots ( 9:1-1-2 when starting from other posts ). Definitely usable, but Chuckie has not looked good in the lane this meet, so we'll leave beneath. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Split Mission

2.Breezy Gal

3.Sweet Breeze

#7 SPLIT TIME was a well clear runner up in the career starter here 22 days back, and although we feel she may have outrun her pedigree a bit that day ( 282 Tomlinson for the dx. ) we're assuaged by the fact that Rice ( who's been sizzling this stand ) is 7 for 13 wit second time starters at this level who hit the board < 36 days ago & are 5-1 or lower today ( $3.00+ ROI ). #4 BREEZY GAL is the second half of the uncoupled entry with the above, and was purchased at auction for 120 big ones just eight months ago. Nice breeding ( The Factor ) and gets in light. #2 SWEET BREEZE on the other hand was snagged at a sale for just a grand, but is a half to a 1 for 3 dirt dasher, and papa was 6 fer 8 going one turn on the sand. 

 

Race 3 -

1.Impazible Creek

2.New York Event

3.You Promise

#7 IMPAZIBLE CREEK is an omnifig ( in that all -- or on this case, both -- of her starts ) supersede anything that anyone else in the race has posted, draws well, is up for sale for the first time, and Kimmel is 9 for 16 with dirt dashers at $1.20-1 or less off breaks < 160 days. We don't like the layoff, but it's either this, or stab elsewhere. #1 NEW YORK EVENT hasn't shown much in three starts to date, but is 3rd off the layoff & caches a glib surface for just the second time. #1 YOU PROMISE was shipped up to the Lakes by Kerry, but it was a wasted trip, baby, as she got smacked around at the onset before losing the pilot and coming right back home. There are a couple of decent running lines in the P.P.'s, so we'll chunk beneath, as Abel always tries hard for the minor spoils.

 

Race 4 -

1.Professor Snape

2.Curtis

3.Bobby On Fleek

#3 PROFESSOR SNAPE showed a slightly changed running style in last when rating just off the pace to best cheaper here at 3 to 5. Yeah, we know about today's hike up in class, but Arriaga off to a fine start at the meet ( 4:2-0-1 ) and as a matter of fact, had an excellent 2016-2017 winter, going 5-21 ( 23.8% ), compared to winning at nearly half that rate in all other races ( 12.4% ). ( Sometimes trainers gear up for a particular time of year. ) #1 CURTIS has won 2 of 3 since being snagged by Gullo on 9/23, and while the improved speed & Beyers are obvious to even the untrained eye, this one has never done as well when breaking from the inner four slots ( 0-7 ) as from the five hole on out ( 3-8 ). Including in our rollers, but with a touch of trepidation. #5 BOBBY ON FLEEK is 3 for 4 over a fast track and how do you exclude a runner like that ?

 

Race 5 -

1.Regalian

2.Glennwood

3.Factor This

#9 REGALIAN put it all together with a visually impressive win here against maidens last month ( from the outside, like today ), and Papa Englehart is a PERFECT 3 for 3 with second off the claim sprinters coming in off a maiden win ( $8, $5 & $3 ). #8 GLENNWOOD has improved with each start & has the hood added in today's second off the claim-second off the L/O-first time trainer deal. #5 FACTOR THIS has hit the board in his last triad ( EXcluding a race with an equipment malfunction, and INcluding a recent maiden breaking effort ), and has the all important win over the course. In all actuality, this is a pretty difficult race to decipher, so tread lightly.

 

Race 6 -

1.Forest Blue

2.Gorgeous Charli

3.Polar Jet

#4 FOREST BLUE is 9:4-1-3 dating back to the '16 finale, and has that perfect type of "declining" record at the trip that we love to see ( 7:4-2-1 ). Gelding's been a bit of a money burner of late, in losing four straight at average odds of $2.20-1, but a square number should be ensured today and we'll take a shot. #3 GORGEOUS CHARLI is second off the L/O today ( 3:1-1-0 in that scenario ) & has hit the board in 7 of 10 at the trip; logical. #5 POLAR JET drops three pounds off a win ( an angle we're always fond of ), and is 2 fer 3 here & 3 fer 4 at the dx. while shooting for the hat trick today. Hard to exclude this duo the way things have been going of late.

 

Race 7 -

1.Purely Lucky

2.Salty Smile

3.Southern Gal

#8 PURELY LUCKY was a well beaten but well clear runner up when trying the sand for the first time three dozen days ago, and did so despite a troubled onset. March bred sheds 96 ounces off that effort, and gets Irad in the irons today, which can only be seen as a plus these days. Cox ( dig it ) who normally wins at a 26% clip, is 3 for 7 with ungraded dirt dashers who were ITM 1-2 fortnights back & are between 5-2 & 7.50-1 ( $10, $9 & $11 ). #3 SALTY SMILE came motoring late to get the sheepskin here a bit over a month back, and although the # came back a bit low, sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on. Toss in at a price. #2 SOUTHERN GAL cuts back in the weight department after getting the diploma, and also catches a fast track for the first time ( for which she's better bred than the turf she was victorious on ).

 

Race 8 -

1.Beach Access

2.Big Thicket

3.Debauchery

#1 BEACH ACCESS has gotten better with each start, showed improved speed in the most recent, takes one of the biggest drops in the game, and draws inside beneath an excellent "send" rider ( who his 5-48 since starting out 0-33 here ). Looking for a wire job. #2 BIG THICKET has a nice overall body of work, and goes from open foes to state breds today for white hot connections. MUST include. #9 DEBAUCHERY has blinkers added for the first time today, and they were most likely affixed for the rare bullet breeze at Elmont last Wednesday. Could jazz things up a bit.

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       57-294  ( $609.30 )     Beatable Favorites    10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %     101-294 ( 34.4% ) 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-305   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-305  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.6% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7699 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7782( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8267 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8369 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017