KevinCoxItem


Nice day for us here yesterday, as we bang out a profitable three bagger ( $4, $9 & $24 ) and had four exacta boxes totaling $289, including an ice cold jammie in the finale for $243 !! ( As a matter of fact, over the last three cards we have given out exacta boxes of $243 (cold), $462 & $236 ! ) 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #6 Problem Solving ( NO Beatable Favorite as of 11:50 )


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Aqueduct - 12/22

 

Race 1 -

1.Pawn it Back

2.Distorted Animal

3.Love Your Buttons

#4 PAWN IT BACK is sneaky good in this spot. While he's only beaten eight home in his last quartet, the lone dirt dash produced an adjusted speed figure of 66.7 ( and at a higher level to boot ). Good guy and buddy Jimmy Ferraro ( he of the $150,000 winner five days ago ), who normally wins with just 8% of his starters, is a sweet 4 for 11 when going green to brown with his one turn runners at 40-1 or less ( $9, $10, $6 & $14 ). Would love to see this one in for 20K, but as for today, would love to see Chuckie try to get some speed out of him early on, as there's a dearth of such in the race. #3 DISTORTED ANIMAL is another one undergoing the same surface switch today, and Lynch is a crisp 3 for 5 when doing such while cutting back at this level, with payoffs of $25, $8 & $4. Completes the Lopez/Lopez exacta. #5 LOVE YOUR BUTTONS has been freshened up since the claim & is an obvious inclusion given the overall body of work.

 

Race 2 -

1.Bluegrass Prevails

2.Mighty Zealous

3.Pegasus Red

There are three small--but solid--DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get to it no-frills fashion... #6 BLUEGRASS PREVAILS won just six days ago, and ended up in a new barn for all his efforts afterwards. Rudy Rod is 2 for 3 when hiking up his locally based dirt dashers 50% or more off the claim ( winners of last ) with mutuels of $6 & $8. Will likely be the higher priced of the uncoupled entry with the #5 MIGHTY ZEALOUS, and barn won with said angle the other day. The aforementioned 'Zealous is backed by a trainer stat which says RR is 3 fer 4 when placing his first off the claim dirt sprinters on this strip after a 4-8 week L/O ( $3, $3 & $5 ). #4 PEGASUS RED is 0-11 here, but trainer gives good Servis to his backers when putting fresh purchases on the Ozone Park sand ( going short ) off the same break as the direct above ( $7 & $5 ).

 

Race 3 -

1.Bombshell

2.Friend of Liberty

3.Heavenly Score

#2 BOMBSHELL closed out the tri in a slightly weaker spot when being shipped to Philadelphia Park, and Double J sent him southward for one of two reasons: Either he had trouble finding this type of race in New York, or he was looking to get this gal some confidence after the Beldame trouncing. Either way, this miss has done well at one turn , and 19% clan has a delovely 8:5-2-0-1 stat with local runners of this ilk off L/O's of 25-51 days at 7-1 or less, and has a positive ROI in that regards as well. #6 FRIEND OF LIBERTY is 1 for 1 here, 1 for 1 in second off a "true" layoff, and draws perfectly for her running style. A quick visual at the running lines of the #3 HEAVENLY SCORE clearly show that this one is getting better and better, and although it's been a while, the record going short on the sand is pretty darn good ( 3:1-2-0 ).

 

Race 4 -

1.Super Duper Girl

2.Neon

3.Lillard Hall

#2 SUPER DUPER GIRL showed improved speed when last seen at Delaware Park ( at 28-1 ), and the number from that afternoon came back honest enough. The two that finished just in front of her both came back to win ( improving their speed figures by an average of 14 points ), and as it's rare to see a Mejia horse progress nicely like this, we'll climb aboard. #5 NEON hasn't shown much in the mornings, but the 408 Tomlinson figure positively leaps off the page, and sire was an extremely fast sprinter by another extremely fast sprinter. #4 LILLARD HALL was a well beaten but well clear runner up in a nearly identical spot a half'a month ago, and obviously merits your respect.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 PROBLEM GIRL doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept favoritism?  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, DUE TO A COUPLE OF KEY SCRATCHES, WE HAVE COMPLETELY AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-10-1 WITH NO BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race 5 -

1.Point Hope

2.Nonna's Boy

3.Paid Admission

#5 POINT HOPE has been beset by some layoff lines, but has won three of his last six, and must dig the pizza on Cross Bay Boulevard, as he owns a 5:2-3-0 mark at The Big A. #8 NONNA'S BOY is wheeled back in less than a week and confidently hiked up by Rudy after the score. The speed is most definitely there, as is the affinity for the turf course ( 2-2 ). #3 PAID ADMISSION is dropped 20% below the claim price from two back, but did in fact win 2 of 3 before the flop, so that should be taken into consideration. Note that the front wraps were added in last so take a peek in the paddock.

 

Race 6 -

1.National Honor

2.Shamrock Kid

3.Gio d'Oro

#7 NATIONAL HONOR is appreciably better bred for the dirt than the turf, and the turf starts weren't half bad. From a tiny sampling, Motion is 5:2-0-1-1 when going turf to dirt and two tuns to one with maiden special weight runners who missed the baccala less than 53 days ago ( $5 & $13 ). Addition of blinkers can't hurt, and although we knew Maragh was gonna be riding in California this winter, we weren't quite sure when---until today ( Monday afternoon ) when we saw him galloping horses out there. He still may come back here and ride these races, but it would behoove you to check the changes. #8 SHAMROCK KID has terribly poor turf breeding, but more than outran that pedigree in the most recent when lacing at 58-1. Now the $64,000 question is: Has he turned the corner, or was it the addition of Lasix. We're not quite sure, but will leave in the mix in case it's the former. #4 GIO D'ORO has posted two big numeros in as many starts to date, and has to be left in the hopper.  NOTE: AS OF 11:51, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 -

1.Benny Big Boy

2.Cotton Town

3.The Great Samurai

#3 BENNY BIG BOY hasn't been a part of the super in four straight, but the blinkers are removed today, and 12% shotcaller more than triples that rate ( 3 for 8 ) when taking off the eye cups with his dirt dashers who missed the money < 43 days in the rear ( $10, $5 7 $36 ); gelding gets in light. #9 COTTON TOWN split the field vs. weaker in a similar spot at the end of November, and it's a reflection on how we feel about this race that we're putting him in the number two spot. #1 THE GREAT SAMURAI rounds out the top triad.  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 8 -

1.Diodoro Entry

2.Final Chapter

3.Local Hero

Really competitive feature race on tap here, and our first draft had them ALL having a shot, so we dove right into the trainer stats ! #2 HELOOKSTHEPART is backed by a 5 for 10 Diodoro number with new purchases who won 13 days or more ago & are stepping up 50% or more in a dirt sprint today, and the #2B PETE'S PLAY CALL also has a 50% angle in play here, as same barn is 9 fer 18 with 2nd off the claim/2nd off the L/O dirt stock. #4 FINAL CHAPTER hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but he's 1 for 2 off the shelf, 4 for 10 at the trip, and Charlie is 7:2-3-1 ( 84% ITM rate ) with optional dirt runners sprinting off vacations of 134-268 days ( $9 & $31 ). #9 LOCAL HERO was on the Derby Trail earlier in the year and has won off the bench; first start for Brown.

 

Race 9 -

1.Forward Motion

2.Violent Delights

3.Bad Guy

#4 FORWARD MOTION was an honest 3rd in the overture, and Rice is a perfect 4 for 4 when going sod to sand w/her 2nd timers at 9-2 or beneath ( < 38 days ). Her & Irad have been sizzling of late. #9 VIOLENT DELIGHTS has improved wit each outing & the hood goes on today. And to wrap things up, we "Say goodnight to the BAD GUY."

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       55-276  ( $593.10 )     Beatable Favorites    10-33 ( 30.1% )  Favorites Win %     97-276 ( 35.2% )( As of Friday morning )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-305   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-305  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.6% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7699 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7782( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8267 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8369 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017