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Banner afternoon for us on Cigar Mile Day yesterday, as we got a profitable five bagger, ( ensuring us a flat bet profit until at least the middle of the card next Saturday ), five Rolling Daily Doubles of $37, $27, $18 ( cold ), $32 & $36, two exacta boxes of $106 & $26, a triple box of $142, and we even had a 37-1 shot finish with a hard charging second !!

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #3 Pence


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Aqueduct - 12/3

 

Race 1 -

1.Professor Snape

2.Archie

3.Delta Outlaw

#7 PROFESSOR SNAPE has excellent speed, draws ideally, is 2:1-1-0 at the trip, and Rice is 6:3-1-1 with 3rd off the layoff locally based mid level dirt sprinters ( < 3-1 ). K.I.S.S.   Boy, Mott must be personal friends with the owners of #4 ARCHIE, as I'm sure he'd like this one out of the barn, having beaten just one home in his last quartet. That being said, runner undergoes a consortium of changes today: Turf to dirt, two turns to one, more than halved in class, is second off the layoff & gets blinkers. Now or never time we think. #1 DELTA OUTLAW is another speedy sort who is logical given the speed figures, but could be hampered by out top choice if unable to clear early on, so we;ll leave beneath. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Brattata

2.No Deal 

3.Coffee Crush

#8 BRATTATA is an omnifig, in that all his starts supersede those of the rest of the field. Gal is routing for the second time today and takes that big drop in class. The only other one we'll be utilizing for our rolling action will be the #2 NO DEAL, based on that 69 Beyer on the sod ( which does at the very least match one of the figs that our top choice has ). Turf breeding tells us it wasn't an aberration, and could be right there at the finish. #4 COFFEE CRUSH had a slightly troubled sojourn first time outta the box, but still lost by less than three behind a next out winner. Five runners from that day came back an average of 4.8 points better next time out, and Irad takes over today.  OFF TURF: 8-6-7-4-9

 

Race 3 -

1.Mo Wine

2.Lezendary

3.Warrior of Light

#3 MO WINE has the highest Tomlinson in the field ( 372 ), recently worked a 3rd best of 51 from the gate over the training track, and Pletcher more than doubles his normative win rate with Aqueduct firsters fitting ALL this exact criteria at < 6-1 ( $3.50+ ROI ). Note that this is a full to a 1 for 4 dirt dasher. #2 LEZENDARY hung up big numbers in both starts to date & is second off the L/O today; logical. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #6 WARRIOR OF LIGHT here, as there's a sizzling 48 3/5th's bullet gate move amidst a string of ordinary works. This one is a half to By the Moon, who banked more than a million & a half, with 2/3rd's of it coming in sprints on the sand. 

 

Race 4 -

1.Pimm's Cup

2.Cavallotto

3.Catapult Jack

There are a few decent ( albeit small ) DRF Formulator training stats on display for this non descript race, so let's get to 'em. #2 PIMM'S CUP: 14% outfit is 6:3-1-1 when adding the blinkers to their dirt stock who were off the board < 43 days back ( $9, $10 & $7 ). #7 CAVALLOTTO: 13% Bond is 2 fer 7 with second time starters within these parameters ( $27 & $9 ). #11 CATAPULT JACK hails from a barn that's 4:1-2-0 w/mdn. clm. sprinters on the dirt who were 1-2-3 15-31 days back, and said winner came back a robust $37.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 PENCE will be bet off the solid turf numbers, but the dirt pedigree ain't quite as good, an we're expecting a regression today.

 

Race 5 -

1.Bartleby

2.One of a Kind

3.Northern Grey

#2 BARTLEBY was a game second in the only try when going from turf to dirt, and is perfectly spotted today given the crummy result versus starter foes. Timid selection. #3 ONE OF A KIND is entered today for just half the price of the claim three back, so you'd have to figure they'll have this one cranked up a bit. #1 NORTHERN GREY has put together back to back career efforts of late, has speed, the rail, and an excellent send rider. 

 

Race 6 -

1.Pocket Change

2.Yummy Bear

3.Runaway Posse

#6 POCKET CHANGE went pillar to post first time outta the box at Philadelphia Park, and four runners from that afternoon have come back to ring up an astounding 4:3-1-0 ledger ( with the runner up being behind one of the winners ! ). There was an average Beyer increase of 14.1 points in that sampling, and we'll pin our hopes to another wire job. #1 YUMMY BEAR has been a part of the superfecta in 12 of 14, has experience over this new turf course with a game runner up finish on 11/4, and Franco has some good experience with this one, and we've given him the moniker "Fearless Franco" as he is just that when bulling his way through tight holes. Hence, the rail should not be an issue. #7 RUNAWAY POSSE has closed out the tri in 4 of 5, and finished just behind the above in last, so why not again. OFF TURF: 8-6-5-3-9

 

Race 7 -

1.War Canoe

2.Puparee

3.Tiz A Kitten

#4 WAR CANOE has essentially improved over her last eleven races, topping off that streak with a lifetime best numero on November 15th. As we consider the move from "open conditional claimers" to "state bred allowance" runners a lateral move, if not a drop, we feel the hat trick is well within reach for Double D. #2 PUPAREE has been a part of the party in 5 of 8 at this distance, and you're guaranteed to get a square price given the low percentage connections, New rider in town guaranteed to try hard for the minor spoils. #9 TIZ A KITTEN as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 8-11-3-2-6

 

Race 8 -

1.Achnaha ( Ire )

2.Taralena

3.In the Lee

#7 ACHNAHA (IRE) drops in class and is second off the shelf today. Meek selection in a bad betting race. #3 TARALENA has been 3rd or better at 44 of 45 points of call ( pre finish ) and is hard to knock. #2 IN THE LEE is another getting some relief today, and runner up from last got her photo taken next time out. Gets Jose Ortiz today who will be riding all out as he's getting his knee operated very soon.  OFF TURF: 3-7-5-2-8

 

Race 9 -

1.Patriot Drive

2.Caribbean

3.Not in Charge

#12 PATRIOT DRIVE makes his first start for Asmussen today, as Midwest recently transferred all their Danny Gargan horses over to the As-Man. Gelding may not have cared for the softer going in last, as he threw in a rare clunker that afternoon, but as Billy Bob Thornton says in 'Bad Santa', "They all can't be winners, kid." From limited data, aforementioned barn is 2 for 5 when being handed over a runner & spotting them in a turf route off a break of less than 47 days ( 3-1 to 9-1 ). The winners came back $12 & $14, and Carmouche sticks around. #7 CARIBBEAN put up a lifetime best # in last and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Cox ( Dig the name ! ), who's 26% week to week, is 3 fer 7 when putting new purchases in a turf route off a break of lower than 41 days ( less than 12-1 ). The mutuels for those winners were $5, $7 & $6, and we always like when the pre-claim pilot comes back. #11 NOT IN CHARGE has been a part of the exacta over his last quartet, and Goldberg ( once again, from a teensie sampling ) is 2-5 with 3rd off the L/O runners of this ilk who were part of the action last time out ( < 5-1 ) with payoffs of $4 & $7.  OFF TURF: 6-11-7-1-3

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       35-183  ( $420.90 )      Beatable Favorites    7-26 ( 26.9% )   Favorites Win %     57-183 ( 31.1% )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-305   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-305  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.6% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7699 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7782( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8267 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8369 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017