KevinCoxItem


In a bit of a slump the last two days, but luckily we had a nice cushion on our ROI heading into it. It's a real tough card today, so please take a few races with a grain of salt. 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 12/2 - Cigar Mile - 11:30 First Post

 

Race 1 -

1.Memories of Peter

2.Soluble ( Ger )

3.Black Sea ( Fr )

The top two and no more for all our rolling action, & we'll go with the Hot Dog-Bratwurst-Escargot triple !  #2 MEMORIES OF PETER is cycling nicely these days, culminating with a career best performance last time out over this course. We like the speed and will pin our hopes to this grey dude today. #1 SOLUBLE (GER) finished behind the above in the aforementioned heat, and is 1 for 2 when breaking from the pine. We like the switch to Franco, #5 BLACK SEA (FR) won the only time when entered for this price, but we have him just a few points below the top two, so will slide beneath.  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-6-7

 

Race 2 -

1.Leah's Dream

2.Anna Rae

3.Fair Regis

#4 LEAH'S DREAM finished third ( by less than a length ) in a nearly identical spot right here just eight days back, and barn switches to their go to rider here. #10 ANNA RAE drops yet again ( this time to a lifetime low ), and while a logical animal, for some reason we're gonna tell you to exercise caution today. #5 FAIR REGIS is second off the claim, and bested 2/3rd's of the field versus similar in last. Man, I know it's late and all, as I type this, but it's real hard to get enthused about this race.  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3 -

1.Any Questions

2.Bow Tie Affair

3.Captain Dixie 

Tough race... #1A ANY QUESTIONS is 2 for 4 at the trip ( 1-11 otherwise ) and has never been entered this cheaply. Rosario with a rare ride for Jacobsen. #3 BOW TIE AFFAIR gets some rail relief today and has done good things at The Big A. #7 CAPTAIN DIXIE is confidently hiked up in class after the win for Neilson, and why not ? This one is 6:2-3-0 at the dist, and gas been a part of the superfecta in eleven straight, dating back more than two years. Chap owns a 4:0-1-2-1 mark in second off the layoff attempts & seems like a sensible "unders" candidate.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-1-7-1A-2B

  

Race 4 -

1.Frosty Winds

2.Nazay

3.Martini Momma

#4 FROSTY WINDS has a couple of decent moves on the ledger for today's career starter, and Weaver ( 15% day to day ) is a nice 12:3-4-1-2 ( 83% superfecta rate ) with runners fitting ALL this criteria ( any track ). The winners came back $17, $40 & 14, and we like the fact that Bravo ( who's been successfully choosy this fall ) gets the nod. #7 NAZAY improved appreciably from the first start to the second, and Jose Ortiz ( who's going in for surgery pretty soon ) booted home a triple on Wednesday. #10 MARTINI MOMMA is decently bred for this deal, and is a full to Hangover Kid, who banked over $643,000, including a 1 for 1 mark on the gramma ( while also being a half to a 1 for 2 turf dasher ).  OFF TURF: 4-1-10-7-11  NOTE: AS OF 11:54, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5 -

1.Vintage Matters

2.New Jersey John

3.Wondermeister

A wiiiiiide open turf heat here...  #2 VINTAGE MATTERS has a nice overall body of work, missed by just a honker here a year back, and has hit the board in all four outings off "true" layoffs. Slimmest of margins. #9 NEW JERSEY JOHN has never missed a super since being transferred to the Rice Barn, finished second in his only try at the trip ( in a career best performance ), and has some experience from outside posts. #7 WONDERMEISTER was all out to get up in time for the sheepskin rigt here on the 10th, and sometimes when the lightbulb comes on it can stay on for a while. There may still be some value with this one.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-6-5

 

Race 6 -

1.Indulgent 

2.Going For Broke

3.Highway Star

Today's sixth race is named after the great Go For Wand ( a litho of her is the second piece of horse racing artwork I ever purchased ), and we feel she deserves better than to be a Grade 3 at Aqueduct in December. Nonetheless, here's some info on the history of the race https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_For_Wand_Handicap , the horse https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_For_Wand , along with a video of her winning the Alabama https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=um7B1GZlS-E . Beautiful animal. We're fond of horses such as the #7 INDULGENT very much. Gal always gives a good account of herself, and doesn't need to take her track with her ( 6th different tracks/surfaces from twice as many outings ). McL. -- 21% day to day -- is a tidy 3 for 5 with graded dirt dashers who were 1-2-3 < 46 days ago & are less than 25-1 today. We love the draw, and she's 3:1-2-0 when breaking from the outer two slots. #3 GOING FOR BROKE has been freshened up a bit by Brown ( runner has hit the board twice in off the shelf attempts ), and barn is 4 for 8 with local runners of this ilk off breaks of 43-87 days below the 10-1 water mark. #2 HIGHWAY STAR had her impeccable superfecta rate snapped when running into some trouble out west, and it's hard to dismiss her 3-3 mark at Aqu. as well as the 4-4 ledger at the trip. Will be overbet, however, as most BC runners are. 

 

Race 7 -

1.Barrel of Destiny

2.Summer Squeeze

3.Dark Tricks

#8 BARREL OF DESTINY flashed a bit of early hoof in the career starter & switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today, which is an angle that we like. Dam was 2 for 13 on the gramma, banking more than 100 large, and maternal grand dam was 1 for 4 over the stuff, making over 31K. #10 SUMMER SQUEEZE had a bullet gate breeze just eight days ago, and that's the bestest type of breeze. Turf breeding is decent, and she couldn't have landed in a softer spot to start things out. #1 DARK TRICKS is another who was zippy for a bit first time out, and gets a substantial post position change today. Turf breeding is actually pretty good, and there's a crisp work since the last.  OFF TURF: 1-10-13(MTO)-4-3

 

Race 8 -

1.Wonder Gadot

2.Layla Noor

3.Maurer Power

The 95th running of the Demoiselle on tap here, and for a bit of history on this event ( won five times by Angel Cordero ) feel free to go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demoiselle_Stakes . We'll be using these three and no more for all our rolling action. #3 WONDER GADOT had a herky jerky showing in the Cup out west, but the adjusted number came back okay, and miss is obviously the class of the field. #7 LAYLA NOOR sheds five pounds off a win ( dig it ), and said victory was her only start over a glib surface. There's a two turn win on the resume' and the price is right. There's an old adage to never discard an undefeated runner at more than 3-1, and the #6 MAURER POWER is no exception. Three runners from the last came back to run 1-2-3 in the same race next time out, improving their speed figs by an average of 11.3 pernts. Interesting. 

 

Race 9 -

1.Biblical

2.Avery Island

3.Catholic Boy

Extremely tough Remsen right here !!  You can draw an upwards arrow next to the speed figs ( as my buddy Gerard taught me so many years ago ) of the #4 BIBLICAL, as they've been heading in the right direction since starting things out during closing week up at the Spa. Won the maiden in last with front wraps on, and also did it in the first attempt going two turns. How often you get 8-1 0n these connections? #3 AVERY ISLAND is another on the improve, ( having gone back to back ) but adds six pounds, unlike the above who sheds four. Leaving beneath for the initial 2X try. #5 CATHOLIC BOY could be a nice addition to 'Biblical' for your triple during this Christmas season, based on yes --- an increase in the speed figure w/each outing, and slightly better dirt breeding than turf ( over which he's done just fine, thank you ). 

 

Race 10 -

1.Americanize

2.Sharp Azteca

3.Tom's Ready

Featured race of the day on tap now, the Cigar Mile ( formerly the NYRA Mile ), and for some factoids on it, go right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cigar_Mile_Handicap . We're gonna give the nod to #5 AMERICANIZE based on the improving form & a delovely 7:3-4-0 mark over a fast surface. #6 SHARP AZTECA obviously figures, and is definitely a horse to root for -- if not the trainer. #4 TOM'S READY comes in off a top number and Dallas has been on a little run over the last three months, winning 3 graded one's from as many different animals. 

 

 

Aqueduct        ( Current )       30-173  ( $370.60 )     Beatable Favorites    7-26 ( 26.9% )  Favorites Win %     54-173 ( 31.2% )( As of Sat.  morning ) 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-305   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-305  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.6% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7699 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7782( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8267 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8369 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017