KevinCoxItem


Sometimes you're the windshield and sometimes you're the bug. Yesterday, we were the buuuuug.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #2 Zonic


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Aqueduct - 12/1

 

Race 1 -

1.Lightning Buzz

2.Mutaraamy

3.Archival

#5 LIGHTNING BUZZ is a fairly consistent sort who's been a part of the superfecta in seven straight, bu therein lies part of the rub -- his penchant for settling for the minor spoils. That being said, new trainer Quick gets a little more rich with fresh acquisitions in mid level dirt dashes off breaks of 26-53 days ( OTB in last ). The winners came back $15, $8, $6 & $7, and note that the runner up from last returned a winner next time out. #4 MUTARAAMY was snagged up at the Spa in August for 40 large, but was sent to the shelf immediately afterwards, and now returns in a spot where even a win & a claim would prove to be a financial loss for the connections ( uh oh ). The good new tho, is that Rice is more than twice as nice when dropping new purchases 50% or more in a dirt sprints ( < 240 days ), as she's 8:4-1-1-1 with that type. #3 ARCHIVAL won just five days back and is an obvious factor if he goes. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Orino

2.Iron Power

3.With Exultation

#4 ORINO ( yes---THAT Orino ) has been a part of the exacta in 7 of 16 at this trip ( a slightly different 5-18 otherwise ), and finished just a bit over a length behind a next out winner in last. Mild choice. #2 IRON POWER has been a bit more lively since being claimed by Rudy on August 2nd, and finished ahead of the above back on November 10, despite a slightly troubled onset. #1 WITH EXULTATION ( 12:3-3-1 when breaking from the inside three posts...26:4-6-3 otherwise ) digs it here ( 3:2-1-0 ) and always seems to give a good account of himself, despite some long odds. Beat our top two in the aforementioned race and figures prominent once again. OFF TURF: 10-2-1-7-11

 

Race 3 -

1.The Caretaker

2.Storm Prophet

3.Cody's Notes

#2 THE CARETAKER has hit the skids a little bit in the last three, but from a teensie sampling, McL. is 5:2-1-1 when going green to brown in an allowance sprint ( < 81 days ). The winners came back $7 & $5, and this one is a meeeeeek selection in a wide open allowance. #1 STORM PROPHET finished second in this race 23 days back, but is a nibbler by rote, so we'll toss beneath. #5 CODY'S NOTES took the overland route back on 11/9, but the last two numbers are the best two of his career, so there's not much reason to exclude.

 

Race 4 -

1.Ailish

2.Tizengaginglysmart

3.Giant Zinger ( AE )

#9 AILISH begins her professional career today, and is bred six ways to Sunday for this trip. This is the first foal out of a winless dam, but the sire was 2 for 2 on the gramma, and paternal grandsire was 3 for 3 over the stuff. #4 TIZENGAGINGLY SMART is an obvious must use, given the hefty Beyers in the first two starts; no knocks. #11 GIANT ZINGER (AE) is in need of one to get the sniffles in order to face the starter, but should that come to fruition, brings in tow a decent last two efforts and a trip over the strip.  OFF TURF:9-10-13-4-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5 -

1.Dream Fever

2.Glow Goddess

3.Paranoia

#4 DREAM FEVER bested more than half the field when stepping up in class and switching over to the sod on my birthday ( make a note ), and the number came back much better than the pedigree would suggest. We like that the bandages came off that afternoon, and from a limited study, 17% Lynch is 5:2-1-1 when going turf to dirt while giving his runners the biggest drop in the game ( $4 & $8 ). #1 GLOW GODDESS showed zilch in the overture, but Double D sticks around, and theses 2 year olds don't need much to improve by leaps and bounds. #5 PARANOIA showed a little bit of hoof when trying the dirt for the first time, but faded after a half at Belmont that day. We like the crisp recent move, and gets in light with the bug assigned.  NOTE: AS OF 1:58, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6 -

1.Goldwood

2.Nisha

3.Sister Sophia

#4 GOLDWOOD merely finished 5th of 8 in the first try versus winners a month and a half ago, but the speed figure from that day was actually a bit higher than that of the maiden breaking effort. Juarez takes over today for a barn that's 5 for 12 with allowance turf sprinters in the 32-64 day range ( $2.05 ROI ). #13 NISHA has won 4 of 6 and shoots for the hat trick today in first start off the purchase by 'Miah. Must use in all your rollers. #8 SISTER SOPHIA has been befallen by some layoff lines throughout her career, but is in good form this year, and should be able to handle open foes for the first time.  OFF TURF: 8-4-1A-13-14(MTO)

 

Race 7 -

1.Okeamo

2.Catch a Cab

3.Frozen Angel 

#8 OKEAMO has a couple of gaps in the worktab, but some of the moves are okay nonetheless. This one draws well, faces no world beaters, is a half to a 3 for 19 dirt sprinter, a 1 for 8 dirt sprinter, and a 1 for 4 dirt sprinter. Dam was 1 for 8 trying this dance, and daddy was 2 for 5 doing the same. Slight edge in another toughie for us. #3 CATCH A CAB by no means disgraced himself in the only dirt foray way back when, and has the blinkers added while cutting back. #6 FROZEN ANGEL appears to be the only one signed on with some zip, and that may be enough to land a share.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 ZONIC fills the bill as Albertrani is 1-17 with all pertinent categories.  NOTE: AS OF 11:36, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 8 -

1.Main Road

2.Forest Blue

3.Battle of Evermore

Boy, this is a difficult card today.  #8 MAIN ROAD is 4:1-3-0 when beginning from the outermost two post positions, goes turf to dirt today, and jockola from the last tally is back in the scene. We like the tactical speed here. #2 FOREST BLUE made the first local ( and east coast ) start a semi successful one when grinding out a runner up finish from today's inside slot. Speaking of the latter, chestnut gelding is 4:2-2-0 when breaking from the 1 or 2 posts ( 19:3-5-5 from the three hole on outwards ), and runner finished third in the lone "true" 3rd off the L/O attempt. #5 BATTLE OF EVERMORE ( a Led Zeppelin song, the video of which can be found right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88b0OYxdtyM ) hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but five year old owns a win off nearly a nine month vacation, and pre layoff pilot returns, which we always like to see, as it tells us that nothing was seriously amiss when last seen.  NOTE: AS OF 11:38, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1A WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 9 -

1.Gio d'Oro

2.Anything Pazible 

3.Flash Drive

#10 GIO D'ORO was cross entered for yesterday, so right off the bat check the changes. Two year old was an extremely game runner up in the career beginning effort ( two lengths back to the show horse ), and the number came back extremely strong. Cox ( Dig it ), who bats 26% day to day, is an even better 46% ( 5-11 ) with second time starters in maiden special weight dirt sprints who were 1-2-3 19 to 37 days back & are 7-2 or less today ( 7-2 ). #5 ANYTHING PAZIBLE came along nicely for third when catching a glib surface for the first time, and has worked well since. #2 FLASH DRIVE has improving numbers, lightning speed, gets eye cups, and this looks like a perfect opportunity for y'all to count Bobblehead's head turns during the race. We put the over under at 3 1/2 if he loses --- 5 if he wins.

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       30-164  ( $370.60 )     Beatable Favorites    7-25 ( 28.0% )  Favorites Win %     51-164 ( 31.1% )( As of Friday morning )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-305   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-305  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.6% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7699 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7782( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8267 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8369 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017