KevinCoxItem


Justa couple'a chalky winners on yesterday's card.

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 11/30

 

Race 1 -

1.Caniform

2.Southern Union

3.Driven by Thunder

You don't come across too many positive Randi Persaud stats in this line of work, but we've found one here with in regards to the #5 CANIFORM. This gutsy gelding has never been out of the money in eight dirt starts, and was probably involved in a multi race shake when being claimed from Asmussen in last. 7% conditioner is a groovy 10:4-0-2-3 with fresh acquisitions in mid level dirt dashes ( stepping up 50% or more in class ), and the winners came back $5, $7, $15 7 $14. Gets in at the lightest impost of his career. #3 SOUTHERN UNION is another straight off the purchase, only this one looked ugly in said race, so if you can ignore it, than is another getting in light with nice prior running lines. #6 DRIVEN BY THUNDER has finished first and second in the only two times he's been up for sale. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Paganini ( AE )

2.Steelersfanforlife

3.Lem Me Tel Ya

There are three decent ( albeit small ) DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to it ! When we saw Russell Cash had a second time starter signed on, something clicked in our cerebellum, and sho' 'nuff, we had him up at the Spa with a winner this summer. In the case of the #13 PAGANINI (AE) ( a famous Italian composer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niccol%C3%B2_Paganini ), he's backed by a 3 for 6 number with 2nd timers at this level going short ( < 40-1 ). The mutuels were $7, $20 & $7, and gelding has the hood added while getting in light. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #3 STEELERSFANFORLIFE ( which I was, until this year ), as there's a bullet breeze of 36 and 2 sandwiched within some more pedestrian moves, and not only that, but Weaver ( 15% on the norm ) is 20:5-3-3-2 with firsters fitting ALL these conditions ( 20-1 or less ). The payoffs for that study were extremely healthy at $17, $9, $40, $14 & $14, and same bug as the above is slated to ride. #5 LEM ME TEL YA has a couple of nice morning moves, and Levine is 2:1-1-0 with first time starters in turf deals at less than 40-1 ( $16 ). OFF TURF:14(AE)-16(MTO)-2-3-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3 -

1.Via Castagna

2.Fooch

3.Stan the Man

Wide open deal here... #7 VIA CASTAGNA showed brief hoof when dueling in the career starter, and although he faded late that day, has returned to put forth two crisp moves. Timid choice. #5 FOOCH bested more than half he field in the career opener, but something must've went wrong either that day or in the April 5th workout, as this one has been gone quite some time. Ward's shown no mercy with this $120,000 purchases' tes-tee-klees, as off they went , and this one can be a factor if fully cranked. #6 STAN THE MAN ( obviously named after Hall of Famer Stan Musial, who retired with the EXACT same amount of hits at home as on the road ! ) has improved over his last quartet of dirt attempts ( ITM in three ) and is second off the shelf today.

 

Race 4 -

1.Cotton Town

2.City Traveler

3.Gun For Hire

#6 COTTON TOWN is a woeful 1 for 22, but Albertrani has done well with equines making similar moves and we'll give this one the slimmest of margins in a grotesque event. #3 CITY TRAVELER is third off the L/O and finds himself at a career low today. Meh... #2 GUN FOR HIRE finished second in this race 26 days back, and....and...that's all I have to say about this race. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Might Be

2.Unbridledadventure

3.Frost Wise

#5 MIGHT BE is a double Beyer play and should destroy these. We see it as a two horse race for the place spot between the #2 UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE and the #6 FROST WISE and will give it to the former ( who was cross entered yesterday ) because of his affinity for this trip ( 8:1-4-1 ). As for 'Wise, this runner is 3rd off the layoff with excellent speed, and digs this joint to boot. Front wraps were added in last, so take a gander pre race. 2:44 in the morning on Sunday, and we're losing our creative juices, so will pick this up later in the morn !

 

Race 6 -

1.Witch Doctor

2.Factor This

3.Wicked Trick

We're back !! #10 WITCH DOCTOR had positively no excuse in the latest, but the penultimate outing was extremely solid, and there are a bunch of suspect animals in here, so we'll take a shot despite the wide slot. #2 FACTOR THIS had a "wasted trip, baby" ( as Oddball from Kelly's Heroes once said ! ) in last, as the saddle slipped, compelling Dylan to pull him up on the backside. The outing before that was nice ( a second place finish at 13-1 ), and as bettors have a tendency to ignore horses with awful last running lines ( regardless of the reason ), this one is bound to be a bit of an overly, so we'll be sliding beneath. #4 WICKED TRICK spiced up the tri in Franklin, Kentucky when finishing third at boxcar odds, and although the 11/18 return to the sod was a bit of a disappointment, we'll chunk into the hopper.  OFF TURF: 1-11-2-6-7

 

Race 7 -

1.Marriedtothemusic

2.Global Positioning

3.Cause for Surprise

#9 MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC is 2 for 2 locally, owns a sensational "declining" mark of 24:10-7-1, and owns an amazing 10:7-1-1 ledger when breaking from the outermost three slots ( 14:3-6-0 otherwise ). Toss in the early speed and blinks being added for the first off the claim start by Jacobsen, and you have the looks of an extremely live runner. #1 GLOBAL POSITIONING has steadily climbed up the Beyer ladder over his last quintet, and is proving to be an astute claim by Rodriguez, for whom he's won both starts. Solid 9:3-2-2 mark when busting out of the innermost three slots aids the cause. #8 CAUSE FOR SURPRISE is second off the claim, third off the layoff for Nevin.  NOTE: AS OF 11:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 8 -

1.True Charm

2.Truth in the Lies

3.Carolina Shag

We had just finished analyzing this race and were prepared to give an in depth analysis for all three runners when we had an epiphany --- The #4 TRUE CHARM could just be the controlling speed of this race, has one of the best "send" riders in the land coming in from the left coast, and draws well. 7% conditioner is 3 for 5 with turf sprinters off breaks of < 68 days at 20-1 or lower ( winners only ). Let's get one home for my buddy and good guy Jimmy Ferraro ! #3 TRUTH IN THE LIES is 2 for 4 in second off the L/O deals and is reunited with the pilot from his last win. From a small sampling, 24% shotcaller is 3:2-1-0 with 2nd off the break turfers who crashed the fiesta in last, on the cutback ( < 40-1 ), with payouts of $4 & $5. #5 CAROLINA SHAG may wake up with the addition of eye cups today.  OFF TURF: 1A-1(MTO)-2(MTO)-7-3

 

Race 9 -

1.Cookie Crisp

2.Champagne Papi

3.Harlan's Hunch

#5 COOKIE CRISP ( the most addicting of cereals growing up ! ) hung up a monster # off a wide trip last out, and Rudy Rod is a tight 4:3-0-1 with maiden claiming turf stayers who cashed a check 1-2 fortnights back at 6-1 or less ( $10, $7 & $8 ). #8 CHAMPAGNE PAPI was an honest third at 38-1 on November the 9th, and although the numbers are a bit light compared to some others in here, we'll incorporate into our action, as he may still be overlooked parimutuelly. #3 HARLAN'S HUNCH has a nice resume' and is a must include.  OFF TURF: 5-3-7-1-8

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       30-155  ( $370.60 )     Beatable Favorites    7-25 ( 28.0% )  Favorites Win %     49-155 ( 31.7% )( As of Thursday morning )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-305   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-305  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.6% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7699 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7782( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8267 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8369 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017