KevinCoxItem


Nice way to finish up the week on Sunday, as we had a profitable two bagger, as well as five Rolling Daily Doubles of $19, $19, $45, $112 & $53, an ice cold exacta of $83, four Rolling Pick Threes of $50, $39, $135 & $347, a $370 Rolling Pick Four, and a $1,038 Rolling Pick Five. Additionally, our "Beatable Favorites" are besting the grain, and we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least the opener on next Sunday!!

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 11/29

 

Race 1 -

1.Kissin Cassie

2.Navajo Kitten

3.Lil Renegade

#6 KISSIN CASSIE is 1 for 2 off the shelf, 2 for 7 at the trip, and Barker has some bite when dropping his stock 50% or more off breaks of 28-90 days, as from a small sampling he's 3:2-1-0 ( $7 & $6 ). Note that the bug who's been slated to ride has been out of action for a few days, so be sure to check the changes. #4 NAVAJO KITTEN has been going up and down the Beyer ladder over the last quintet, and fits well here. #7 LIL RENEGADE as good as any for the show dough in a wide open opener.

 

Race 2 -

1.Danielle's Pride

2.Piquet

3.Grand Banks

#2 DANIELLE'S PRIDE needs a bit of a pick me up, and that may occur with the switch to Donk's barn today. 11% conditioner is a sensational 8:4-0-1-1 when getting new runners in his barn and bringing them back in between 20 & 50 days at odds of less than 40-1 ( $72, $15, $18 $4 ). Irad sees fit to ride. #1 PIQUET has an okay body of work, and 9% shotcaller is 8:2-1-1-1 with maiden special weight turf routers who were in the money 16-32 days ago. #4 GRAND BANKS is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 7-8-6-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3 -

1.Infield Is In

2.Call Me

3.Reign Charger

We'll be using these three and no more for all our rolling action. #3 INFIELD IS IN goes 2 turns to 1, green to brown drops for the second straight time, and dirt number ain't half bad. Kerry is 5:1-0-1-1 when conducting those first two moves with anything under 40-1 ( $43 ). #4 CALL ME split the field in the unveiling ( finishing behind a next out winner ) and gets off the wood today. #5 REIGN CHARGER is the first foal out of a dam that was 1 for 3 in dirt dashes, whose sire was 1 for 5 in all sprints. Sneaky good workout back on October 14th.  NOTE: AS OF 11:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race 4 -

1.Driven By Speed

2.Broken Border

3.Tizzelle

#1 DRIVEN BY SPEED closed with a flourish to beat similar by a honker at Elmont on 10/27, and over the last 60 months the Toddster is 5 for 13 when stretching out turfers who scored 22-44 days ago at 10-1 or lower. This one has won routing, so don't worry about the added distance. #10 BROKEN BORDER has crafted herself quite the fine year in winning three of five, and this one has been a victress in the only two outings when up for sale, so ya better watch out here. #8 TIZZELLE is the clear class of this field, owns some gaudy speed numbers, and has yet to miss a superfecta. Logical.  OFF TURF: 5-3-6-2-9

 

Race 5 -

1.Mo Promise

2.Curiousandcuriouser

3.Tiz Super

After finishing off the board in five straight, Contessa gave the #8 MO PROMISE a bit of a respite to work on some things, and gal is dropped to a lifetime low today. From a limited study, 10% clam is 5:2-0-1-1 when dropping their dirt sprinters 50% or more, with the winners coming back $6 & $10. #5 CURIOUSANDCURIOUSER is another who finds herself at a career low off an elongated absence, but Nevin is heaven with mid level dirt dashers coming back after 144-288 days @ < 15-1, as she's 8:3-1-1 in that regards ( $8, $7 & $8 ). #3 TIZ SUPER is in sharp form these days and sheds some weight off a solid performance.

 

Race 6 -

1.Madame Uno

2.Nouvelle Vague ( Fr )

3.Frosty Lady

#3 MADAME UNO was a hard trying third in a nearly identical spot at Belmont a couple'a months back, and Javier takes over for Bobblehead today. #6 NOUVELLE VAGUE (FR) ( the name of a French band which means 'New Wave' ) has finished second in both local tries, and Lopez can nurse 'em along on the lead from time to time. Multiple layoff lines always a concern, so take a gander pre race. #4 FROSTY LADY has a third place finish over the course, is 1 for 2 at the trip, and has steadily ascended the Beyer ladder over her last five, including four consecutive exacta finishes.  OFF TURF: 5-10-11(MTO)-9(MTO)-6

 

Race 7 -

1.Casse Entry

2.Total Tap

3.Shalako

This is a very odd race, in such that at first glance you would think it's a turf event. We have no little read here, so tread lightly.  #1 KANTUNE has speed, won the only time he cut back while going turf to dirt, and makes a formidable entry with the #1A BLACKOUT (FR). That runner finished second in his lone dirt try, and is 1 for 2 in 3rd off the layoff attempts. #10 TOTAL TAP is 5:1-1-1 over a fast surface, and as this one also has some early zip, Asmussen calls upon a good send rider in Garcia. #5 SHALAKO is confidently hiked up in the first off the claim try, and has a nice collection of Beyer figs, regardless of the surface.

 

Race 8 -

1.Fleet Irish

2.Sudden Surprise

3.Becker's Galaxy

#5 FLEET IRISH has been a part of the action in 6 of 7, digs the trip, and Weaver is dreamy w/ungraded dirt dashers off breaks of 27 days or less ( < 60-1 ). The winners came back $24, $12 & $3, and Castellano takes over for Franco today. #3 SUDDEN SURPRISE had his three race winning streak snapped in last when being brushed a bit at the start in a similar spot, and if you can be willing to draw a line through that, then perhaps there's a touch of value here given the flop. #6 BECKER'S GALAXY has been ITM in 35 of 50 and how do you leave a runner like that outta the mix?

 

Race 9 -

1.Lulu's Pom Pom

2.Andretta

3.Cirque

#3 LULU'S POM POM has improved with each and every start, been a part of the action in 4 of 5, slides in to the wood, and C-Squared ( 19% when putting on his glasses in the morning ) is 3 for 10 with second off the layoff maiden special weight turf sprinters ITM last time out ( $7, $7 & $3 ). #2 ANDRETTA on the other hand has regressed since beginning her career back in June, but it's hard not to include this one despite the recent disappointment. #11 CIRQUE has been a completely different animal since having the blinkers added by elder statesman Bob Dunham, and we like the versatility shown in last when stretching out for the first time & finishing second. Logical once again.  OFF TURF: 2B(MTO)-2-13(AE)-14(MO)-11

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       28-146  ( $361.00 )      Beatable Favorites    7-25 ( 28.0% )  Favorites Win %     45-137   ( 33.9 % )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-305   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-305  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.6% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7699 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7782( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8267 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8369 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017