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Nifty day for us here yesterday, as we banged out three Rolling Daily Doubles of $63, $63 & $229, a Rolling Pick Three of $1,536, and two winners--one of them paying $68 !! That's actually the fourth highest priced winner we've ever had here, with the third one being just two weeks ago ! We're now guarenteed a flat bet profit until the first day of December ( at the very least ! ) and will continue to stay up lat working hard for ya !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #2 Silver Shaker  Race 7 - #7 Stoney Bennett


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Aqueduct - 11/26

 

Race 1 -

1.Arbitrator

2.Inventor's Gate

3.Try Flying

#5 ARBITRATOR has been a part of the exacta in 5 of 7, owns a win and a second in as many 2nd off the layoff starts, and is more than halved in claiming price today. That last part is of some relevance, as C-Squared ( from a small sampling ) is 3:2-1-0 when doing such ( $3 & $5 ). #3 INVENTOR'S GATE is transferred into the barn of a wonderful human being, John Hertler, today, and may perk up with the drop, cutback, and surface switch. If we lose, we hope he wins. #2 TRY FLYING has won three of his last four, and been a part of the tri in 5 of 6 at the trip. Six year old "horse" ( You hang on to dem cranberries, buddy ! ) is an obvious inclusion.  NOTE: AS OF 11:51, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO CHOICES.

 

Race 2 -

1.Work of Art

2.News Anchor

3.Perfectexpectation

#10 WORK OF ART performed more than admirably when turfing in the career starter in mid October, and we were surprised when Morley decided to try him on the dirt. ( Especially as the grass breeding is MUCH better. ) Perhaps he was hustled into that race, but anyway, 5-2 was insane, and not only is he back on the sod, but we feel that Bernardini will aid this one a bit for the initial 2X foray. #8 NEWS ANCHOR has the best body of work in the field, but has set money ablaze in the last duet, and while we'll be using, it will be with more than an ounce of trepidation. #9 PERFECTEXPECTATION disappointed greatly in last, with no palpable excuse, but the penultimate fig is huge, and we have to leave in.  OFF TURF:13(AE)-7-2-8-12

 

Race 3 -

1.Disruptor

2.Micozzi

3.Archival

Quite often we find ourselves landing on Christophe Clement horses, because he has such good stats in an assortment of categories. He's a true horseman. Anyway, the #5 DISRUPTOR is no exception here. Colt takes the biggest drop in the game today, and barn does well with that type in dirt sprints off breaks of 32-96 days ( $7, $2 & $5 ). Fourth different jockey in as many starts is having a nice meet. #6 MICOZZI is first off the claim, second off the layoff, and switches to Bobblehead today, which should help with the freewheeling style shown in last. #4 ARCHIVAL has posted big figs in his last triad, and as most maiden winning "DQ'd" horses get overbet in their next start or two, you may actually get some fair value today.

 

Race 4 -

1.Skyler's Scramjet

2.Favorable Outcome

3.Harlan's Punch

#6 SKYLER'S SCRAMJET blew up the tote board when last seen on September 20th ( when was the last time you've seen Johnny V. on a $63 winner ?!? ), and was given a break by Nevin before hitting the worktab 27 days later. 20% clan is a groovy 12:4-2-3 with one turn optional dirt runners between 1.50-1 & 4.50-1 ( 45-90 days ). The winners came back $7, $6, $6 & $9, and the second & third place finishers from that day both came back to win ( basically replicating their Beyers ). #4 FAVORABLE OUTCOME has big figs on a classy resume', but has been beset by some layoff lines, so exercise auction before sending it in. #5 HARLAN PUNCH averaged a 76 speed figure in the triad of starts before the Jacobsen claim, and ( not so shockingly ) has averaged a 96.3 in the three starts since then. Ortiz takes over for "Bayou Bravo" today. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Empressof the Nile

2.Palinodie ( Fr )

3.Church Social

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #8 EMPRESSOF THE NILE was overmatched in the Sands Point, but posted a career number in a score just before that, and is but 3/4's of a length of a 2 for 2 mark off the shelf. #4 PALINODIE (FR) won in her only "3rd off the L/O" try, and has hit the board in 3 of 4 at the trip. #7 CHURCH SOCIAL is your prototypical Shug runner -- unspectacular, but lots of checks and getting better with maturity. Lone win came over this course.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We have the #2 SILVER SHAKER a few adjusted points below our third choice, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race 6 -

1.Pure Quality

2.Powerstroke

3.Stormy Justin

#3 PURE QUALITY is a decently bred January foal facing some younger animals, was dropped out of a dam who was 1 for 4 in turf routes, is a full to a 1 for 2 turf stayer, and maternal grandparents were 1 for 3 in firm turf routes. Price play. #4 POWERSTROKE has improved w/each start & has the hood re-affixed today. #10 STORMY JUSTIN appreciated the Lasix last time out, losing by a bit over three lengths at big balloons, and while a regression is always possible, we'll chunk into the mix.  OFF TURF: 1-2-7-3-11

 

Race 7 -

1.What a Catch

2.We Should Talk

3.Inalienable Rights

#3 WHAT A CATCH has hit the board in all four outings and Pletcher freshened this chap up a bit after a taxing 3 1/2 months. Timid choice. #6 WE SHOULD TALK had absolutely no excuse in last but deserves another chance today. #1 INALIENABLE RIGHTS is second time blinkers today and cuts back while sliding inside.  Those who know me best can tell that I'm not particularly enthused about this race.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 STONEY BENNETT fills the bill, as barn is 0-5 with ungraded one turn dirt runners off breaks of less than 71 days between even money & 3-1. 

 

Race 8 -

1.Ultra Brat

2.Stormy Victoria ( Fr )

3.Fire Key

#12 ULTRA BRAT won her only start when breaking from the outside, her only start off an elongated break, and her only turf sprint. ( ALL separate races. ) Gets her 10th different pilot in as many calls to the post, but it's our buddy Nik, which is fine by us. BIG shot at 10-1. #4 STORMY VICTORIA (FR) is 3rd off the shelf today ( a scenario where she's 1 for 2 ), and is a snappy 3 for 4 going one turn over firm ground ( left handed ). #2 FIRE KEY has been a part of the exacta in 7 of 8, and what the hell's wrong with that?  OFF TURF: 9-1-6-2-12

 

Race 9 -

1.Wish Upon

2.Talkn Til Midnight

3.Carry Your Heels

#4 WISH UPON owns nice numeros, has been a part of the tri in 4 of 5 at the trip, and finished just two lengths behind a next out winner in last. Saez slumping a touch, but he's done well with this chestnut gal in the past, and should be right there at the end. #5 TALKN TIL MIDNIGHT is 3:1-0-1 over this oval ( 11:0-2-2 otherwise ) and switches back to her preferred surface today. #8 CARRY YOUR HEELS has gone up and down the Beyer ladder over her last sextet, so today should be a goodie, no? If only the game was that simple. Nonetheless, she drops a touch here & isn't hopeless.  OFF TURF: 6-14(MTO)-8-9-5

 

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       26-137  ( $342.20 )      Beatable Favorites    6-22 ( 27.1% )  Favorites Win %     45-137   ( 33.9 % )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-305   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-305  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587 ( 27.8% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7699 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7782( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8267 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8369 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017