KevinCoxItem


Just a couple of winners on yesterday's card.

 

NOTE: Whenever we say "Aqueduct" in our analysis, if it's a dirt race, the races we are referencing in our studies are main track races.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #2 O Shea Can You See  Race 3 - #9 Culture Carrier  Race 8 - #11 Bucchero


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Aqueduct - 11/25

 

Race 1 -

1.Drover Crazy

2.Big Zip

3.Made of Steel

There are three excellent DRF Formulator stats in play for the day's opener, so let's get right to 'em in a no frills manner. #2 DROVER CRAZY: Diodoro is a whopping 7 come 11 with 2nd off the claim/2nd off the layoff runners who were ITM in last & are < 5-1 today ( $2.90 ROI ). #6 BIG ZIP: Rudy Rod ( from limited starters ) is 2 fer 3 with Aqueduct stock dropping 50% or more off breaks of 105 days or less ( both paid 4 bucks ). #8 MADE OF STEEL: 17% shotcaller is 9:4-0-3-1 with mid level dirt equines who crashed the party 7-15 days ago ( Return on Investment of more than three clams ).  NOTE: AS OF 11:21, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 8-2-6.

 

Race 2 -

1.Diamond Setter

2.Three Goals ( AE )

3.Platinum Nugget

#1 DIAMOND SETTER ( by 'Gemologist' -- ya get it? ) is second time blinkers today and takes the biggest drop in the game for Casse. From a small, but impressive sampling, barn has won all their three starts with maiden claiming runners going long to short and green to brown ( $9, $6 & $3 ).  #15 THREE GOALS (AE) ( by 'Hat Trick' -- ya get that one? ) needs some help to get into the body of the race today, but should that be the case is backed by a tidy little trainer's stat which says that Dilger digs it with one turn maiden claiming dirt dashers returning in less than 41 days, as he's 3-7 in that regards. #10 PLATINUM NUGGET rounds out the top three.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 O SHEA CAN YOU SEE undergoes a bevy of changes today, and we usually like using horses such as this when being offered a price as well.  NOTE: AS OF 11:10, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3 -

1.I'm the Captain Now

2.Desperado

3.Captain Hardship

#1 I'M THE CAPTAIN NOW is an adjusted "Septuple Beyer Play", in such that his last seven adjusted speed figures supersede anything that anyone ( except for our secondary selection ) has ever run. Gelding is second time blinkers today, and Tagg is it with two turn turf runners of this ilk off breaks of 24-43 days ( lower than 5-1 ), with the winners coming back $10, $11 & $5. #5 DESPERADO will need to fly like an eagle late in the game to best the top choice, but does have a better number than the above way back when ( and y'all know we go anywhere in a maiden's P.P.'s to look for something positive ). #8 CAPTAIN HARDSHIP is getting better and better and better, so how do we not use underneath?  OFF TURF: 6-7-8-1-9  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We have #9 CULTURE CARRIER a few adjusted points below our top selection, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race 4 -

1.My Impression

2.Elysea's World

3.Penjade ( fr )

#7 MY IMPRESSION has big figs and is 5 for 10 at the trip ( in comparison to being 1-6 otherwise ). All kinds of logical. #3 ELYSEA'S WORLD (IRE) is a steady if not spectacular sort for Brown, and has don good work beneath Rosario. #5 PENJADE (FR) had the thre race win streak snapped when getting trounced for the second straight time in stakes company, and although the number came back okay, we'd like to see her show that she can handle the higher levels before endorsing up top.  OFF TURF: 7-2-3-4-5

 

Race 5 -

1.Blinded Vision

2.Gentrification

3.Racing Raven

#1 BLINDED VISION nearly went pillar to post first time outta the box for Gullo, and has been given a nice break to recover from that effort. From an extremely small sampling, barn is 2 for 2 with second time starters under these conditions off sabbaticals of 66-132 days ( $21 & $5 ). #2 GENTRIFICATION has been working extremely well for today's career starter, and Violette ( 14% on th norm ) is 6-24 with FTS'ers in races such as this ( males ). The payoffs for the winners were $25, $6, $5, $31, $7 & $6, and it's good to see Irad in the saddle. #5 RACING RAVEN is another who has been prepping well for today's overture.

 

Race 6 -

1.Remarqued

2.Road to Perfction

3.Stay Fond

#8 REMARQUED catches a fast dirt strip for the first time today, and the breeding for such is just about as good as the turf pedigree. With the decent turf efforts on display, we'll give this one the meekest of nods in a wide open affair. #1 ROAD TO PERFECTION finished a few lengths behind a next out winner in last and slides into the wood for the first time. #3 STAY FOND has a modicum of back class and won her only start at the trip.  Hate this race.  NOTE: AS OF 11:35, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race 7 -

1.Night Time Lady

2.Blue Atlas

3.Wealth Effect

#6 NIGHT TIME LADY regressed just 5% when facing winners and going two turns for the first time, and now drops a bit while getting a rider upgrade. Another blase' selection. #8 BLUE ATLAS has essentially gotten better with each and every start and shoots for the hat trick today. Expect a better showing than the initial routing display. #7 WEALTH EFFECT was perfectly spotted in last when procuring the sheepskin for Brown, and four return runners from that day finished 1st, 2nd, 4th & 5th ( from three different races ) next time out.  OFF TURF: 1-4-6-7-5

 

Race 8 -

1.White Flag

2.Summation Time

3.Rainbow Heir

There's no surrender in the #3 WHITE FLAG, as this one gives his all each and every time. Clement charge has yet to miss a triple, and 19% bossman is 13:3-4-4-2-2 with one turn ungraded turf stock between $1.75-1 & < $5.25-1 ( $2.56 ROI ). #9 SUMMATION TIME is 2 for 6 at the trip ( 2-14 at other distances ) and has  2nd, a 3rd, & a 4th from as many "second off the L/O" tries. #4 RAINBOW HEIR is 6 for 11 off the bench, and how do you leave that out at 10-1 ? OFF TURF: 4-8-12-9-6  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 BUCCHERO fills the bill, as Glyshaw is 0-8 with ungraded turf equines at 8-1 or less.

 

Race 9 -

1.Can You Diggit

2.Control Group

3.True Timber

Today's feature is named after "One of the 20th century" -- Discovery. For some history on this wonderful animal, please go to this website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discovery_(horse) . We have a horse here who has gone 77-75-79-86 in all his two turn races, sheds five pounds off a game runner up finish, and is 3rd off the layoff today at 8-1. ( #2 ) CAN YOU DIGGIT ? Can you dig it ?? CAAAAANNNNN YOUUUUUU DIG IIIIIIIT !!!!  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-OYKd8SVrI #6 CONTROL GROUP has speed, should be able to cross over from the outside post before the clubhouse turn, and is 2-3 at the dx. #3 TRUE TIMBER enters off a career best performance and makes his second start off the shelf today. Saez always tries hard for the minor spoils.

 

Race 10 -

1.Tiz a Chance

2.Son of Oahu

3.Strike Midnight

#6 TIZ A CHANCE has comparable numbers to the rest of this wide open field. Sometimes that's all you need to see to swing away at 20-1. ( And being in the money in two local starts helps matters as well. #5 SON OF OAHU takes the obligatory hike after winning locally on 11/4, but once again, you're getting double digit odds on a playable animal. #8 STRIKE MIDNIGHT closes out the tri ( which is another wy of saying "I'm typing this on Thanksgiving, and it's almost time to get stuffed !" ).  OFF TURF: 3-7-1-8-10

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       24-127  ( $264.90 )      Beatable Favorites    5-19 ( 26.3% )  Favorites Win %     43-127   ( 33.9 % )( As of Sat. morning )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-305   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-305  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587 ( 27.8% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7699 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7782( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8267 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8369 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017