KevinCoxItem


Just three chalky winners on the day yesterday, but it was a Happy Thanksgiving for us otherwise, as we qualified for the NHC Championship for the eighth time in the six years we've been trying !! Being we've only been full bore in the tour for about half this year, we'll definitely take it !

See you in Vegas !!

 

Don't forget, we have our Grade One Clark Handicap analysis today. Just go back to the selections page !!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #4 Secretary at War


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Aqueduct - 11/24

 

Race 1 -

1.Our Whim

2.Iwishirish

3.This Bird Can Sing

#8 OUR WHIM was a well clear second in the first off the layoff attempt for the As-Man, and gelding has decent numbers in pretty much every category ( in cluding a 1 for 2 mark when breaking from the outside. 20% barn is 13-39 (33%) with second off the break mid level dirt sprinters who were ITM in last ( < 4-1 ). #1 IWISHIRISH has lost ground late in the game in the last two, but landed in the barn of a high percentage trainer last time out, and pre-claim jock ( trainer's regular ) sticks around. Chance to rebound. #3 THIS BIRD CAN SING was all out to get up in time at Elmont 29 days ago, and ain't facing any world beaters in first try versus winners. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Salty Smile

2.Big Expense

3.Classy Cara

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #4 SALTY SMILE goes turf to dirt, two turns to one, and takes the biggest drop in the game today for a white hot outfit. #1 BIG EXPENSE is another taking the plunge today, and finished third in the lone dirt effort; draws snugly. #9 CLASSY CARA had a decent gate move back on 10/18, and is a half to several dirt dashers who amassed a 24 for 122 mark at this game, banking more than $421,000. Sire and dam also did well going short on the sand, and this one could surprise at a price.

 

Race 3 -

1.Newport Breeze

2.Pure Silver

3.Tayler's the Boss

#4 NEWPORT BREEZE bested half the field when racing with blinkers for the first time on 10/21, and has worked okay since. Timid selection. #7 PURE SILVER got her career off to a scintillating start in going wire to wire three straight times, but hit the skids in both starts afterwards, and we don't know why. Anyway, we'd be remiss in excluding, especially as Pletcher is 3 for 7 with locally based one turn dirt runners off 23-47 day breaks at < 16-1. #8 TAYLER'S THE BOSS falls into Asmusen's lap for today's initial stakes foray, as he and all of Gargan's other Midwest runners have been moved over that way. Logical, given the last race fig.

 

Race 4 -

1.Bobby G

2.Homewood Field

3.Rapt

#1 BOBBY G hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but the numbers were heading in the right direction when last seen on National Hangover Day, and Motion ( 17% when putting on his boots in the morning ) is a groovy 6:3-0-2 when placing new stock in a turf route off a 216-432 day break ( 8-1 or less ) with the winners coming back $15, $6 & $15. #1A HOMEWOOD FIELD has a nice overall body of work ( yet to miss a superfecta ), but has been beset by some layoff lines. Take a peek pre race. #7 RAPT is another steady sort who happens to come in off a career best performance.  OFF TURF: 5-3-10-2(MTO)-1A  NOTE: For trifecta purposes, we'll be using the #4.

 

Race 5 -

1.My Roxy Girl

2.Simona

3.Vip Nation

#7 MY ROXY GIRL has hit the board in five of six fast track attempts, and while that's obviously a nice number, keep in mind that this one's last half'a dozen loses have occurred at average odds of $4.58-1 ( including the last two as the chalk ). Friedman ( just 10% day to day ) is a jazzy 15:6-4-1-4 with maiden claiming one turn dirt stock who were in the money 1-2 fortnights ago ( less than 9-1 ). That's a perfect 15-15 superfecta rate, and there's a $3.00+ ROI in that regards as well. #2 SIMONA goes through a gamut of changes today: Drops, 2X to 1X, blinks come off & catches fast dirt for the 1st time. #6 VIP NATION is a half to a 1-3 dirt sprinter, was dropped by a 1-3 dirt sprinter, and was sired by a 2 for 2 dasher.

 

Race 6 -

1.High Jingo

2.Tiz a Kitten ( AE )

3.Passporttovictory

#4 HIGH JINGO has speed, has been a different animal since being transitioned to the gramma, and 15% conditioner more than doubles that rate w/one turn turf horses who made the tri 22-44 days ago ( 12-1 or lower ). #12 TIZ A KITTEN (AE) needs some help to make it into the body of the race, but lost by only a neck behind a next out winner at 11-1 in the lone turf sprint and has a decent overall body of work. #10 PASSPORTTOVICTORY closes out the tri.  OFF TURF: 3-10-15(MTO)-10-12(AE) NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 -

1.Pink Sands

2.Hail

3.Tactical Affair

#8 PINK SANDS has immolated money in the last duet, but in all fairness, chased two open length winners those days. Has the obvious figs, and 17% Shug is 20:6-3-2-4 with one turn maiden special weight dirt runners who crashed the fiesta 19-39 days ago & are < 5-1 today ( $2.46 ROI ). One of two we'll be using in our rolling bets. #3 HAIL has been doing adequately in the mornings for today's bow, and brings in tow a 406 Tommy. #9 TACTICAL AFFAIR draws ideally, went for $430K at Keeneland last September, and is another who's well bred for this trip. Recent bullet pops off the page.

 

Race 8 -

1.Fuel the Bern

2.Harlan's Holiday

3.Lunaire

Today's 8th is the Gio Ponti, named after a great horse AND a famous Italian architect ! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gio_Ponti  #9 FUEL THE BERN put it all together when catching firm turf for the first time in last, ( as well as having gotten Lasix ) and the breeding tells us that today's stretchout is well within reach. Timid choice. #7 HARLAN'S HOLIDAY lost by only a head at 34-1 when going two turns on October 22nd, and given the evenly matched nature of this field we'll include at 10-1. #1 LUNAIRE has been a part of the superfecta in 4 of 5 times when breaking from the inner two slots, so we'll toss beneath here.  OFF TURF: 7-1-10-8-6  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 SECRETARY AT WAR fills the bill at 3-1, as Double J is a woeful 1-30 with ungraded turfers off breaks of 96 days or less.

 

Race 9 -

1.Tapella

2.Actress

3.Bonita Bianca

#9 TAPELLA simply keeps getting better and better, sheds some lb.'s off a win ( a favorite angle of hours ), and T.P. wipes 'em clean with graded runners who are attempting two turns for the second time off a win at odds > 3-1 & < 9-1 ( 57 days or less ). He's 3 for 8 w/that type, with mutuels of $14, $9 & $11. #5 ACTRESS has been freshened up a bit after facing some toughies, and returns with eye cups today, which is pertinent, as Servis ( 24% day to day ) is 4 for 9 when adding the hood to his two turn equines off sabbaticals of 123 days or less ( < 4-1 ). The winners came back $9, $8, $9 & $8, and she should be right there if fully cranked up. #4 BONITA BIANCA has never missed a superfecta & won in her only second off the shelf try. Note that the runner up from last came back to score.

 

Race 10 -

1.Congruity

2.Cullum Road

3.Pragmatist

#8 CONGRUITY has immolated baccala since starting things out up north this summer, so Brown & Klaravich have seen enough and put this $210G purchase up for sale for the first time today. The good news is that 26% shedrow is a tight 5 for 8 when conducting such a move to their 2X turf equines off breaks of 18-36 days at < 4-1 ( OTB in last ). #7 CULLUM ROAD ( a street near West Point, which is fitting, as that's who owns this one ) is another who can perk up with a plunge today. #2 PRAGMATIST can't afford to be an idealist if racing is to be his game, especially after that grotesque way to start out the career. Colt ( for now ) undergoes the whole smorgasbord of changes today: FTB, FTL, FT Md.Clm, & FT Arroyo. Would only need to find one of those to his liking to grab a slice of leftover pumpkin pie.  OFF TURF: 10-2-1-12-13(AE)

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       22-117  ( $253.40 )      Beatable Favorites    5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorites Win %     40-117   ( 34.2 % )( As of Friday. morning )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2   ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )     Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-304   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-304  ( 32.6% )  +/-: -30.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587 ( 27.8% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7698 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7781( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8266 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8368 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017