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How do you have a great day with just one on top winner? By utilizing our "unders', that's how !!  On the day, we had ( $2 prices )...

--Five Rolling Doubles of $83, $78, $60, $155 & $26 ( $18 Bets )

--Three Rolling Pick Three's of $1,082, $291 & $430 ( $54 Bets )

--A Rolling Pick Four of $5,635 ( $162 Bet, or less if you'd like )

--A Rolling Pick Five of $44,093 ( $486 Bet, or less if you'd like )

And we are guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least the 3rd race tomorrow !!  Have a great day, everyone !

 

Thanksgiving Day memory...My father, Walter ( Bijou ) Cox, my grandfather, Thomas ( Poppa ) DeAngelo, and my Uncle Artie ( Fusco ), would all take two trains to Aqueduct in the morning, while the women ( and a red headed boy ! ) would stay behind and prep. I guess it was a pretty good deal for the men---that is until the train broke down coming home one year !!   Boy, there were some nonplussed females on Seeley Street that day !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not posted as of 11:26 P.M. Tuesday )


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Aqueduct - 11/23 - Happy Thanksgiving !! - 11:50 First Post

 

Race 1 -

1.Interrogation

2.Ormolo Lu

3.Golden Muscade

Extremely competitive morning opener here... #8 INTERROGATION had a troubled debut back at the beginning of the year at 7-2, but in all fairness, only lost by five that day. As so often happens with youngsters ( she was still two years old at the time ), an injury ensued during or after that race, and Clement did the right thing & put this one on the shelf for a while. Eleven runners from that afternoon came back to compile an 11:2-2-1 mark in their next start ( from eight different races ), and 9% barn is a groovy 11:4-2-4 with second time starters in two turn turf races at this level after 140+ day sabbaticals ( < 12-1 ). Encouraging to see J. Ortiz get the call. #3 ORMOLO LU has shown improved speed in the last two outings, and will be in front for as long as she can. #1 GOLDEN MUSCADE is 3rd off the L/O today & gets the hood.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-7-4

 

Race 2 -

1.Tug of War

2.Divine Oath

3.Are We Not Men

#1 TUG OF WAR is part of a three headed monster here ( pre scratches ), and although this one bled through Lasix in last, we're slightly assuaged by the fact that Rudy Rod ( 19% on the norm ) is 25 for 85 ( 29% ) with locally based runners under these conditions who missed the baccala 31-60 days back. #5 DIVINE OATH returns off short rest, and the only time this one started off a break even remotely close to today's L/O was a game second place finish off a 7 day respite more than two years ago. In one of the weirdest anomalies we've ever seen, this one is piloted by his 20th different pilot from his last 21 calls to the post. #1X ARE WE NOT MEN was a lively runner up against slightly tougher on October 28, and makes all kinds of sense here. NOTE: For trifecta purposes, we will use the #2.  NOTE: AS OF 11:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3 -

1.Talon

2.Incubator

3.Westerdale

#2 TALON was a clear runner up in the Maryland overture about four weeks ago, and sharp trainer Delacour is 3 for 6 with second timers fitting this criteria who were ITM 20-34 days ago ( $8, $6 & $2 ). #3 INCUBATOR ( the title of a VERY funny M*A*S*H episode ! ) put up a solid figure at Philadelphia Park in last, and 17% shotcaller is a snazzy 23:8-5-7-2 ( that's 22 of 23 in the super ), with maiden special weight dirt stock off L/O's of 79 days or less ( < 4-1 ). #6 WESTERDALE displayed nice zip in the bow & goes inside to out today.

 

Race 4 -

1.Barbarossa

2.Rockin Jo

3.Looking Ready

#8 BARBAROSSA was visually impressive when blitzing 11 others to get the sheepskin in mid October, and the breeding ( as well as the improving numbers when going longer ) suggests that today's stretchout shouldn't be much of a concern. #3 ROCKIN JO had the blinks added in last & went pillar to post over this course 19 days back, and sometimes when the light bulb goes on, it can stay one. You may get some good value here. #10 LOOKING READY has yet to miss a super, takes a drop in class & is an absolute must inclusion.  OFF TURF: 7-6-4-10-11(MTO) NOTE: AS OF 11:34, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 4-2-6.

 

Race 5 -

1.Baratti

2.Rossie Val

3.Gotham News

#1 BARATTI finds himself at his lowest level to date, won his only start when breaking from the wood, and there are THREE sui generis DRF Formulator stats in regards to Kiaran: 1-He's 1 for 1 when dropping his stock 50% or more ( $7 ). 2- He's 2 for 5 when going green to brown, and long to short with those who missed the board in last & are < 8-1 now ( $7 & $5 ). 3-He's 4 for 9 with locally based one turn dirt stock off absences of less than 39 days ( < 4-1 ), with the winners coming back $4, $4, $9 & $10. Those are cumulative numbers of 7 for 15 with a healthy ROI. Now or never time. #3 ROSSIE VAL is 1 fer 2 in second off the L/O deals, and 15% shotcaller more than doubles that rate ( 5-15 ) with 2nd off the shelf 1X mid level dirt runners who were OTB in most recent & are beneath 8-1 ( $15, $7, $11, $3 & $7 ). #7 GOTHAM NEWS has been in the triple in 7 of 9 at the dx.

 

Race 6 -

1.True Charm

2.Driven By Speed

3.Munchkin Money

We had just finished analyzing this race and were prepared to give an in depth analysis for all three runners when we had an epiphany --- The #1 TRUE CHARM could just be the controlling speed of this race, has one of the best "send" riders in the land coming in from the left coast, and draws the inside. Let's make it an enjoyable turkey dinner for my buddy and good gut Jimmy Ferraro. #5 DRIVEN BY SPEED: T.P. ( from a teensie sampling ) is 2 for 3 w/one turn optional turf runners who won less than 53 days back, and we like how this one scored with a change in tactics last time out. #4 MUNCHKIN MONEY: Lynch ( 17% when polishing his pearly whites in the morning ) is a large 35: 13-7-4-2 w/1X turf runners who crashed the fiesta 18-36 days ago & are < 7-1 today ( $2.61 ROI ).  OFF TURF: 4-10-7-8-11(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:36, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 7-13(MTO)-12(MTO)

 

Race 7 -

1.Thais (Fr )

2.Taperge

3.Rymska ( Fr )

We'll shoot for the Chad Brown triple in the Winter Memories stakes here... #1 THAIS (FR) win in her only "true" 3rd off the layoff spot, is 3:1-1-1 going left handed, and draws snugly. Mild choice. #8 TAPERGE has hit the board in five straight & is 2:1-1-0 at the dist. #10 RYMSKA (FR) is a rare "black" thoroughbred, and shoots for her 5th win in her last septet today.  OFF TURF: 8-13(MTO)-3-6-14(MTO)

 

Race 8 -

1.Stallwalkin' Dude

2.Ready for Rye

3.Seymourdini

Traditional Thanksgiving Day event here in Ozone Park is the Fall Highweight Handicap. Unfortunately ( for tradition's sake ) the word "highweight" has gone by the wayside in recent years, as from 1964 to 2002, the average winning weight of this race was 131.8.  From 2003 to 2016, it was 128.7. Sad...  What's not sad, however, is the story of #3 STALLWALKIN' DUDE. This soon to be eight year old gelding has amassed $1.568 million in his career, and more than 1.5 million of that has come after the claim of 38 months ago, thereby making him probably one of the five to ten greatest claims of all time. This is all his today. #8 READY FOR RYE has been in the money in 5 of 6 at this distance, as well as both forays over this oval. Not hopeless for the "unders". #9 SEYMOURDINI is rumored to be scratched today in lieu of the Cigar Mile, but we'll put into the mix until we hear otherwise.  NOTE: AS OF 11:38. DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 9 -

1.Bird Key

2.Meads Bay

3.Momenta Kat

#10 BIRD KEY drops for the second straight time today, and although she's yet to hit the board, our former boss is 2-9 with 3rd off the break 2 turn maiden claiming turfers who were out of the money in last ( < 18-1 ); encouraging to see Javy stick around for this. #5 MEADS BAY got smacked around a touch in the opener, but adds blinkers and drops a few pegs. #2 MOMENTA KAT was carried out a bunch on October 27th, but lost by only a deuce at big balloons and gets to save all the ground today.  OFF TURF: 2-10-5-6-11

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       19-108  ( $238.40 )       Beatable Favorites    5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorites Win %     36-108   ( 33.3 % )( As of Thurs. morning )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2   ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )     Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-304   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-304  ( 32.6% )  +/-: -30.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587 ( 27.8% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7698 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7781( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8266 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8368 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017