KevinCoxItem


MANY amendments to today's column today, so check below.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #2 Saratoga Colonel


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Aqueduct - 11/22

 

Race 1 -

1.Lewis Vale

2.Tusk

3.Tiznoble

#6 LEWIS VALE is but a nose and 3/4's away from shooting for a grand slam today, and takes a confident hike up in class in first start for Jacobsen. Gelding has never missed the board at this trip, and is 3:1-1-0 when starting from the outside. Lezcano's lone two wins at the stand occurred when wiring 'em in turf routes ( and at nice prices, too ! ). Slight edge in a wide open six pack. #5 TUSK won his only start when up for sale ( in his only start w/Ortiz as well ), is 3 for 8 at the trip ( 0-8 otherwise ), and Rudy has simply been on fire this meet. #4 TIZNOBLE is about 8% better on the turf than the dirt, and the recent dirt start wasn't all that bad. Double D always tries hard for the minor spoils.  OFF TURF: 2-5-6-3-4

 

Race 2 -

1.Derval

2.Ouro Verde

3.Seam

#4 DERVAL hasn't shown much in the last two, but makes her second start for Cannizzo today, and tho 12% day to day, is 3-13 with one turn maiden claiming dirt runners right here off breaks of 23-47 days ( > 3-1 & < 9-1 ) with the winners coming back $15, $8 & $12. #1 OURO VERDE has steadily improved over her last septet, and has hit the board in both starts when breaking from the outside. Sensible inclusion. #6 SEAM tried the big drop two back ( and lost ), added front wraps in the most recent ( and lost ), and now has the hood added. We'll be using in our rollers, but simply can't take even money on the top side.  NOTE: AS OF 11:13, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 1-6-4.

 

Race 3 -

1.Discreet Senorita

2.Team of Teams

3.Littlemissbusiness

#1 DISCREET SENORITA can be forgiven the recent start ( stumbled ) as well as the one before that ( poor turf breeding ), and just by doing that you find yourself looking at a nice string of running lines. 5 for 9 mark positively leaps through the screen onto your table, as does the 3 for 4 ledger when starting from the inside. When you have a 12% rider winning at a 33% rate ( 6-18 ) with a 21% trainer over the last month---you take note. #4 TEAM OF TEAMS is just as well bred ( if not a touch better ) for the brown than the green, and the form over the gramma ain't half bad. Last win came off an elongated absence, and we'll be tossing into the hopper. #2 LITTLEMISSBUSINESS was swung into the 7 path in a 6 horse race ( really ?? ) two fortnights ago, but still posted a solid figure nonetheless. Second off the purchase today & has done well at the dx.  NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 2-1-5.

 

Race 4 -

1.Tap Tap Taparoo

2.No Deal

3.Glossy

The top two and no more for all our rolling action.  #3 TAP TAP TAPAROO hung up a big number when a slightly green runner up versus slightly tougher on my B-Day at Belmont, and even if she regresses a touch, still lays over just about all in here. #6 NO DEAL cuts back a panel after a dead game placing when going over the blades for the first time a month and a half ago, and although we're not quite sure where Saez is today, Franco is a more than capable substitute. #9 GLOSSY hung up a nice # in the turf bow & draws better today.  OFF TURF: 3-4-1A-1-5  NOTE:AS OF 11:21, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR 3RD PLACE SELECTION TO THE #3, NOT THE #5.

 

Race 5 -

1.Mister Henry Lee

2.King Coa

3.Shadow Rider

There are three nice DRF Formulator angles to work with in this compact field of five, so let's get right to 'em...  #3 MISTER HENRY LEE: Kelly Breen is a sensational 11:8-2-0 with one turn allowance dirt stock ( @ 10-1 or less ) who were 1-2-3 32-40 days back & has a $4.80 ROI in that regards. Trainer flew Juarez down to Churchill for a $72,000 race on Sunday ( only mount ) & it resulted in a win, so obviously he thinks highly of him, and note that the place horse from the 10/14 deal returned a victor. #2 KING COA: 12% Caizzo is ( from a small sampling ) 5:2-1-0 when going two turns to one with dirt animals off layoffs of 14-32 days ( 12-1 or lower ), w/the winners paying $24 & $23. #5 SHADOW RIDER: Toscano is 6:2-0-3-1 with runners of this ilk coming back in < 13 days below the 4-1 watermark.  NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 1-5-2.

 

Race 6 -

1.Purely Lucky

2.Pauseforthecause

3.Saratoga Treasure

#3 PURELY LUCKY has improved with each and every start, culminating with a gritty nose victory to get the sheepskin on 10/18. Cox is a perfect 6 for 6 with 2X optional turf runners who won their first race < 69 days ago & are under 4-1 ( $5.15 return on investment ). Book it. #1 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE has yet to miss a superfecta & Bravo doing very well here from limited mounts. #6 SARATOGA TREASURE can come along late for a piece.  NOTE: AS OF 11:04, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 2-3-4.

 

Race 7 -

1.Shidoshi

2.Polar City

3.One More Round

We have very little read on this race so tread lightly. #5 SHIDOSHI may perk up with the switch over to dirt today ( Distorted Humor ). #2 POLAR CITY is second off the shelf today & is entered for a lifetime low. #3 ONE MORE ROUND is a threat if sound.  NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-4-5.

 

Race 8 -

1.Astounding

2.Focus Group

3.Altar Boy

Typing away tonight while watching "Almost Famous". Pretty cool flick if you've yet to see it.  #1 ASTOUNDING comes in today off a career best effort, is 2 for 2 from the pine, and Servis owns a 5:2-1-0 mark with second off the L/O 2X optional turf horsies who won last out & are between 5-2 & 7.50-1 today. #7 FOCUS GROUP is another coming in today off a career performance, but that came with the addition of blinkers & over a "good" track, so while we'll be incorporating, it's with a touch of trepidation. #3 ALTAR BOY is a re-claim by Maker, won his only start at the trip, fired an uncharacteristic crisp work just five days ago, and the second and third place finishers from the October 13th deal both came back to win; Diggin' the 23:5-2-1 "declining" lifetime mark as well.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-7-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:06, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE NOW 3-6-4.

 

Race 9 -

1.Givetheman a Cigar

2.Frost Proof

3.Saratoga Colonel

#8 GIVETHEMAN A CIGAR has gotten better and better and better over his three month career, and although he barely beat home the chase ambulance in the initial turf go round, there was some clumsiness at the start that day, which pretty much made things a fait accompli. June bred has ample room for improvement, and we'll give him a tepid nod in the finale. #6 FROST PROOF is another you can put an upwards arrow next to, as he seems to be figuring things out. Gets in light today, which could end up making all the difference in the world. #2 SARATOGA COLONEL had a nightmarish sojourn at Elmont 26 days back, but his two best Beyers came when going long, and could make amends at 7-2.  OFF TURF: 8-13(MTO)-9-11-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:42, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 3-13(MTO)-8.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 SARATOGA COLONEL.

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       18-99  ( $232.10 )       Beatable Favorites    5-17 ( 29.4% )    Favorites Win %     33-99   ( 33.3 % )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2   ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )     Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-304   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-304  ( 32.6% )  +/-: -30.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587 ( 27.8% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7698 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7781( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8266 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8368 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017