KevinCoxItem


Just three favorites here on Saturday, but we still show a flat bet profit after at least until the Wednesday finale, and our "Beatable Favorites" are now up to snuff !!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #10 Culture Carrier


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Aqueduct - 11/19

 

Race 1 -

1.Disruptor

2.Love Your Buttons

3.Stun

#6 DISRUPTOR goes from mdspwt. to mdclm. today, and C-Squared is 14:6-2-1 when doing that to his one turn dirt runners off breaks of less than 113 days below 9-1 ( $3.00+ ROI ). Franco had a three bagger on Thursday. #1A LOVE YOUR BUTTONS ( Perhaps a play on Hannibal Lecter and "Love Your Suit." ! ) did fairly well in both dirt starts, and exits a race in which the top two finishers won, and nine runners improved an average of 3.6 points in their next starts. #3 STUN has beaten only ten home in his last five outings, but 2% trainer is a decent 6:1-1-0-1 when dropping 'em like this while making identical surface switch ( $85 ). 

 

Race 2 -

1.Conquest Bigluck E

2.Inventor's Gate

3.Nominal Dollars

#3 CONQUEST BIGLUCK E is halved in price for the first off the claim start ( uh oh ) by Rice, but she actually does well with this move off breaks of less than 90 days ( one turn ), as she's 3 for 5 in that regards. Her niece's husband is on the animal, so he can't be too sore, right? #5 INVENTOR'S GATE has some okay numbers and catches dry dirt for the first time. Could perk up a bit with today's dropdown beneath a hungry pilot. #4 NOMINAL DOLLARS rounds out the tri.

 

Race 3 -

1.Becker's Galaxy

2.Gold for the King

3.Nobody Move

#1 BECKER'S GALAXY was up the track at big odds in the Empire Classic, but this is a softer spot & is 5:1-2-1-1 in 3rd off the layoff deals and grey gelding owns a 3:1-1-1 mark right here. From a small sampling, Rudy Rod is 2 for 6 with 3rd off the L/O locally based ungraded one turn dirt stock ( $11 & $5 ). As an extra caveat, this one is 9:2-4-0-3 when breaking from the pine. #6 GOLD FOR THE KING is 2 for 2 over this strip. #4 NOBODY MOVE ( "Nonsense, by all means, move." --- Doc Holliday, 'Tombstone' ) went from zero to hero in latest & finished second in the lone "3rd off the layoff" try.

 

Race 4 -

1.The Presidency

2.Fast Boat

3.Ride to the Sunset

#9 THE PRESIDENCY had a bit of trouble from an inner slot in the career opener, and caught a "good" turf course that day. War Front breeding says to give this one another shot, and he'll be our only alternative to the #8 FAST BOAT. That Clement charge showed good speed when finishing third in the overture, and bloodlines say it was no fluke. Nice maintenance breeze since then. #10 RIDE TO THE SUNSET draws well, and will be ridden by Martin Garcia, who's moved his tack here from SoCal. Expect him to try hard for all the minor spoils early on, and definitely use him on anything that has speed this fall & winter. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Mills

2.Raagheb

3.Abiding Star

#5 MILLS has been bitten by the seconditis bug of late ( three straight ), but has a win & a second from as many Aqueduct outings, and rates the slimmest of margins in a race that we really don't have a good read on. #1A RAAGHEB drops down to the level of his last win and is 1 for 4 when breaking from the outside. #4 ABIDING STAR shoots for the grand slam today and exits a race that has yielded two wins & two showings from just three separate races ( with an average Beyer improvement of 5.2 points ). You can't leave this one out of the mix.

 

Race 6 -

1.Bobby G

2.Homewood Field

3.Rapt

#1 BOBBY G hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but the numbers were heading in the right direction when last seen on National Hangover Day, and Motion ( 17% when putting on his boots in the morning ) is a groovy 6:3-0-2 when placing new stock in a turf route off a 216-432 day break ( 8-1 or less ) with the winners coming back $15, $6 & $15. #1A HOMEWOOD FIELD has a nice overall body of work ( yet to miss a superfecta ), but has been beset by some layoff lines. Take a peek pre race. #9 RAPT is another steady sort who happens to come in off a career best performance.  OFF TURF: 5-3-10-2(MTO)-1A  NOTE: For trifecta purposes, we'll be using the #4.

 

Race 7 -

1.Church Social

2.War Canoe

3.Bigkat and Camille

We'll be utilizing the top two and no more for all our rolling action.  We've mentioned it countless times here in the past about McGaughey runners --- they all look the same !! #4 CHURCH SOCIAL is no exception, what with the steady stream of Beyers & multiple in the money finishes. I know, I know, this one is camera shy, but she's reunited with her favorite pilot today who'll be riding hungry as he's gonna be out of action for six weeks pretty soon. #2 WAR CANOE is wheeled right back in four days after winning his second straight ( lifetime best # ) & having been ITM on the gramma in the last eight. #9 BIGKAT AND CAMILLE goes from Chatterpaul to Bruce Brown today, which is a significant move, and goes long for just the second time here. Price play to spice things up underneath.  OFF TURF: 4-10(MTO)-5-2-3

 

Race 8 -

1.Skyler's Scramjet

2.Very Very Stella

3.Square Shooter

There are three solid DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em.  #5 SKYLER'S SCRAMJET: Nevin is 6 for 13 with Ozone Park stock returning after a 40-80 day hiatus in a one turn allowance race on the dirt at < 7-1 ( ITM in last ). The ROI for that sampling is $2.64 and we're encouraged to see Johnny V. return after the layoff. #1A VERY VERY STELLA: 21% Jacobsen more than doubles that rate with local horses fitting this criteria off 16-32 day breaks ( > 1.50-1 & < 4.50-1 ) & has a $3.60+ return on investment in that regards. #4 SQUARE SHOOTER: 'Miah is 3-10 with those of this ilk right here who missed the baccala in last & are between 5-1 & 25-1 ( $12, $17 & $23 ).

 

Race 9 -

1.Desperado

2.I'm the Captain Now

3.Captain Hardship

There's no need for you to think we need to come to our senses in selecting the #1 DESPERADO here. Draw a line through the off the turf event, and what you have is a runner who posted an adjusted 86.4 in the only "true" second off the layoff turf try, an adjusted 103.5 in the lone try here, and a jock who tries hard for all the spots--regardless of the odds. LASIX FREE !!!  #9 I'M THE CAPTAIN NOW has essentially gotten better with each and every turf outing, but is beginning to give the impression of being that kind of a maiden, no? Using, but not sold. #2 CAPTAIN HARDSHIP is another who you can draw an upwards arrow next to.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We have the #10 CULTURE CARRIER a few adjusted points below our secondary selection, so why would we accept favoritism?

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       18-99  ( $232.10 )       Beatable Favorites    5-17 ( 29.4% )    Favorites Win %     33-99   ( 33.3 % )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Breeders' Cup    ( Final )        3-22    ( $15.40 )         Beatable Favorites     0-2   ( 0.0% )     Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )      57-327 ( $517.00 )         Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )     Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )       Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-304   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-304  ( 32.6% )  +/-: -30.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587 ( 27.8% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7698 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7781( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8266 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8368 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017