KevinCoxItem


Nice day for us here yesterday with a couple of profitable winners, giving us a flat bet profit until the 2nd race on Wednesday, at the very least !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #8 Scheme  Race 6 - #9 Unleveraged


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Aqueduct - 11/18

 

Race 1 -

1.Out of Trouble

2.Tisbury

3.Lethal Legacy

We're seeing today's opener as easy as 1-2-3 !! ( Not really, but it sure sounds clever, don't it? ) #1 OUT OF TROUBLE finished second in this race at Elmont a month ago when chasing the winner all the way around the track at 9-5. That was a career best effort, and three runners from that heat came back to duke it out once again a bakers' dozen days ago, with one of them winning, and the average Beyer improving a point for the triad. #2 TISBURY is a nibblah by nature, running up a 10:1-4-0 mark on the lawn thus far, and is entered back at the same price claimed from last ( when 2nd ). Logical. #3 LETHAL LEGACY has a win and a second from her lone two starts when up for sale.  OFF TURF: 1-5-6-3-4

 

Race 2 -

1.Gangbusters

2.Gia Michael

3.La Contessa

#6 GANGBUSTERS catches a fast track for just the second time, gets blinkers for the first time, takes the biggest drop in the game today, and is backed by a solid DRF Formulator stat. Over the last five years, Sacco ( 14% on the norm ) is 3 for 11 when adding the hood to his one turn maiden claiming dirt runners off breaks of less than 40 days ( < 12-1 ). The winners paid $16, $16 & $11 and it's encouraging to see Juarez take the call. #2 GIA MICHAEL is a half to four multiple dirt sprinting winners, one of those being Offlee Sinister, who was 12 for 39 at this deal, banking more than $207,000. Couldn't have landed in a softer spot for the bow. #4 LA CONTESSA is second off the layoff & gets in light.

 

Race 3 -

1.A Fleet Attitude

2.Tale of E Dubai

3.Schivarelli

#3 A FLEET ATTITUDE is second off the claim today, and there's no scary drop despite the recent flop. Loves this trip. #2 TALE OF E DUBAI has the type of "declining" at this distance that we love to see ( 11:5-3-1 ) as it shows he knows where the line is, and one of three runners from the last came back to win ( from two separate races ) with the average Beyer improving by three points. Dangerous if able to shake free early on. #4 SCHIVARELLI has been a popular item at the claim box of late, and with good cause, as he's a classy sort who usually gives a good account of himself; 3 for 9 at the dx.

 

Race 4 -

1.Trilliant ( Ire )

2.Gold Lace

3.Miko

#2 TRILLIANT (IRE) faced and bested 11 of 12 boys overseas, and did so without the use of lasix and toting eleven more pounds. Gal's left handed form is far superior to that making right handed turns, and Motion ( 17% ) is 2 for 7 when getting 2X turf shippers like this for the first time and giving them the wonder drug ( 31-93 days ). The winners came back $3 & $14, and Jose Ortiz ( who gets knee surgery on December 5th ) gets the nod. #7 GOLD LACE has won three of four, and what's wrong with taking a horse like that at 15-1? #9 MIKO is but a length and a half short of being 3-3 over firm ground, and as with the direct above, decent odds are ensured today.  OFF TURF: 10-3-5-6-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 SCHEME fills the bill as Bond is 0.07% with 3rd off the layoff turf stayers ( 1-16 ).

 

Race 5 -

1.Peculiar Sensation

2.Peculiar Sensation

3.Outrageous Bet

We're really not feeling the mojo here, so tread lightly... #7 PECULIAR SENSATION has a weird looking boxscore of 16:1-1-7, but we actually consider this a drop in class today and Franco had a hat trick here on Thursday. #9 MISSION COMMAND outran his turf pedigree in a big way when winning at Elmont on 10/26, and although we'll be using, it's with a hint of trepidation. #3 OUTRAGEOUS BET is 3:1-1-0 on the sod, and 10:1-0-0 otherwise. As good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 5-13(MTO)-7-14(MTO)-1

 

Race 6 -

1.Mathematician

2.Victor Lounge ( Ire )

3.Causeur

We're seeing this race as a single with one saver.  #1 MATHEMATICIAN put up some sharp numbers ( sorry ) early on in the career starter, before understandably fading late in the game at 44-1. There's a bullet breeze since that day, a better jockey is legged up, gets a dramatically more advantageous post, and the wonder drug is in play today. The only other speed ( on paper ) we see is that of our second choice, the #4 VICTOR LOUNGE (IRE), but the fact that this one has lost the hood, as well as his procreating abilities, leads us to believe that they will try to rate this one a bit today. We'll give him a shot do to the aforementioned changes, as well as the unproven status of the turf pedigree. #2 CAUSEUR goes long on the lawn for the first time today and is eligible to improve with blinks.  OFF TURF: 16(MTO)-1-8-10-3  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 UNLEVERAGED doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race 7 -

1.Will Did It

2.Morning Buzz

3.Sir Bond

#7 WILL DID IT did it on 10/8, and this one is now 3:2-1-0 locally, in comparison to being 28:2-4-6 otherwise. Ended up in a new barn for all his efforts, and makes all kinds of sense today. #4 MORNING BUZZ has hit the board in half his lifetime starts and is nicely spotted in today in second start off the claim by Barbara. #3 SIR BOND is a groovy 17:4-7-2 at this trip, and is about 9% better over a fast track than the wet stuff, so we're expecting a bit of improvement today at a solid number.

 

Race 8 -

1.Hollywood Hideaway

2.A Lot

3.Fire Away

Today's feature is named after the excellent turfer ( and Breeders' Cup winner ) Artie Schiller. For a bit of history on the runner, just go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artie_Schiller . #3 HOLLYWOOD HIDEAWAY didn't display much in the lone two turn turf attempt, but that was over a course listed as "good", and the two graded stakes tries this summer offer enough hope for a second go 'round at this trip. The #6 has A LOT of back class and has crashed the party in 6 of 8 at this dist.  #2 FIRE AWAY is your prototypical Shug runner --- steady, steady, steady. Two for two mark over the course adds to the allure.  OFF TURF: 1-3-4-7-11

 

Race 9 -

1.Miss Hot Stones

2.Forever Dreams

3.It's My Catiecat

Like earlier on the day, we see this as a single with one saver. #13 MISS HOT STONES has run a game second in both starts to date, and showed slightly different running styles in each. 17% shedrow is more than doubles that rate ( 6 fer 16 ) w/ one turn maiden special weight dirt stock who were 1-2-3 15-31 days back & are > 1.25-1 & < 3.75-1 ( positive ROI ). Love the draw. #2 FOREVER DREAMS put up a solid figure of hr own when a well clear runner up at the Lakes a couple of dozen days back & is a must incorporate here. #9 IT'S MY CATIECAT was a wide third in the opener & can improve off that effort.

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       15-90  ( $218.80 )       Beatable Favorites    5-15 ( 33.3% )    Favorites Win %     30-90   ( 33.3 % )( As of Sat. morning )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Breeders' Cup    ( Final )        3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2   ( 0.0% )       Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )      57-327 ( $517.00 )        Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )       Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )       Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-304   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-304  ( 32.6% )  +/-: -30.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587 ( 27.8% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7698 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7781( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8266 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8368 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017